The Giants cleared space on the 40-man roster by sending Rule 5 draftee Steven Johnson back to Baltimore. They also cut a bunch of others from camp, no surprises. More later today on the seething, raging fifth-outfielder debate, and why it matters.
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We spun up a little debate in yesterday's comments about the merits of Eugenio Velez vs. Andres Torres, though if you step back it seems like a grand exercise in hair-splitting. C'mon, Lefty -- arguing over which fifth outfielder is better? Yawn. I'm off to surf LOLcats on the company clock!
Hold on, Bippy. This is important. You need to realize that two-thirds of the Giant outfield is a) over 35 or b) seriously ouchie-prone or c) also a backup infielder or d) not the guy you want patrolling LF with a one-run lead late in the ballgame, and then you need to realize that the other one-third of the Giant outfield is a young guy who said he discovered plate discipline in Puerto Rico this winter, buried under a big pile of tostones.
In other words, the fifth outfielder might easily become the third-and-a-half outfielder. The Giants want the best one possible who brings the following skills:
* Good defense? Torres definitely. Some reports say he's the Giants' best defensive outfielder, period. If you believe in UZR and acknowledge Torres's small major-league samples, his numbers look very good. One of Velez's MCC nicknames is Baron Ironglove Von Pickoff, which tells you about the public perception of his defense. Reports this spring such say his D is getting better, but it's not going to be better than Torres.
* Getting on base? If he's brought into a close game, even just for defense, chances are the backup outfielder will get an at-bat. And what's better late in a close game than getting on base? We all know about Velez's OBP ineptitude. His atrocious plate discipline even brought this comment from Bruce Bochy after yesterday's Cactus League game:
Velez, who started in right field and saw three pitches the entire game, over three at-bats. He offered at each and grounded out three times, once on a bunt. "That's not going to work," Bochy said. "He didn't even realize he did it."
Andres Torres is no on-base machine, but last year he showed a lot of patience from the right side. Throw in his earlier MLB numbers from 2003-2005, which are overall horrible, and his career OBP as a right-handed batter is still .330. Not great, but better than Velez.
* Stealing a bag? Last year Torres was 6 for 7. He wasn't very good earlier in his career, but perhaps he's become a wiser basestealer. Velez is 30 for 41 career. Not a bad percentage, but he should be able to steal bases simply by blinking. I'd prefer the savvy veteran who only goes when he should. Did I mention Velez's nickname was Baron Ironglove Von Pickoff?
* Power? Torres absolutely crushed LHP last year. Can he do it again? It's only fair to point out his BABIP last year was an unearthly .400 against lefties. But he's always hit lefties hard, career MLB SLG is .519. In the minors, it was .475.
* Staying healthy? A-ha. Finally Velez might have the advantage. Torres went on the DL twice with leg injuries last year, and as a 32-year-old he's not likely to get much healthier.
One more point: OGC mentioned yesterday that Velez has an option left, but not according to MLB Trade Rumors. Doesn't matter, though. I would risk losing Velez to waivers. In fact, I'll wager any of youse that if the Giants release him, he will not be on another major-league roster to start the year.
Last night Madison Bumgarner faced 16 batters and got seven outs, none via strikeout. Hank Schulman reports this:
Bumgarner, mostly hitting 88-89 mph on the stadium gun, said he felt he threw considerably better in this start and was working on pitches he ordinarily might not throw in certain counts during the season.
A more encouraging sign was Fred Lewis's third home run of the spring. He also walked twice. I've written quite a bit about Fred this winter, and I haven't changed my opinion. Letting him go would be a disappointment. If the Giants can get a decent prospect for him, OK. If they can squeeze him onto the Opening Day roster and give him another couple of months to prove himself, all the better. That might require sending John Bowker back to Fresno for a spell, since he still has options. Or it means Travis Ishikawa, who seems to be recovering quickly from a foot ligament injury, starts the year on the DL with an extra rehab assignment in Fresno even if he's physically ready on April 1.
As of this morning, here's my vote for position players on the Opening Day roster (with 12 pitchers on staff):
F. Sanchez and Ishikawa start the year on the DL. Posey starts the year in Fresno. If the team goes with 11 pitchers initially, there would be room for Eugenio Velez, otherwise he's my odd man out. A lot is made of Lewis being 29 -- in other words, too old to change his ways -- but Velez is right behind him, turning 28 this May. Age being nearly equal, I'll take Freddie's skill sets over Velez.
If you grew up with all the classic baseball stats -- pitchers' W-L records, RBIs, batting average -- and you get frustrated as all heck with the newfangled stats and the nerds who love them, you really need to read this blog post from Kansas City writer Joe Posnanski. It's sort of about Pedro Feliz, but it's really about how we're conditioned to believe in the power of certain numbers, and why it's always good to question assumptions. There's a ton of great stuff in here, like this:
Teams don't score runs because they have uniquely talented RBI men. Teams score runs because more often than their opponents, they put together a string of useful offensive plays -- walks, hits, stolen bases, hit-by-pitch, beating out double play grounders, taking extra bases, advancing on throws , on and on and on. That, most of the time, is what lead to runs. The RBI guy cannot do it himself except with solo home runs. And teams don't win games by hitting solo home runs. No, really, they don't. I looked it up. In 2009, offenses that scored all their runs on solo home runs were 24-193. Houston lost a game to Cincinnati 6-5 while hitting five solo home runs. For the decade, teams relying entirely on solo home runs went 267-1837.
There's one small point Posnanski leaves out, which is worth mentioning: like a lot of baseball stats, RBIs can be arbitrary. You get an RBI when you ground out and a runner on third scores -- but not if you hit into a double play? Huh? You get credit for an RBI if a guy comes around to score but not if he's thrown out at the plate? Why should a hitter be penalized for his slow teammates? I won't steal any more of Posnanski's thunder. Go read his piece. (Link tip from McCovey Chronicles.)
One more link today: Will Carroll has posted his Team Health Report for the Giants with strong praise for head trainer Dave Groeschner: "He came back to take over the San Francisco staff and has not only continued Stan Conte's excellence, but built on it."
I acknowledge and support the handwringing over Madison Bumgarner's lack of velocity and control this spring. I double down on my strongly held, emphatically stated, and wholly un-expert belief that Bumgarner shouldn't be with the big team to start the year.
OK, now what? First, we watch like hawks next time Bumgarner takes the mound. Is he just shaking off the rust? Are his heavy heart and distracted mind dragging down his arm speed and messing with his mechanics? Whatever the case, there is no downside to holding Bumgarner back for a while.
The next order of business is to get another candidate for the starting rotation into camp. If Bumgarner is out of the running, the team has Todd Wellemeyer, Rule 5 pick Steve Johnson, Joe Martinez and Kevin Pucetas to choose from. Martinez already has a sore elbow, though apparently no serious damage, and Johnson hasn't begun to stretch it out past an inning or two. There's still time, but I don't get the sense the Giants consider him a real rotation candidate.
Pitching depth is crucial, and right now the Giants don't have it in the rotation. Depth is why a few teams have watched Kris Benson work out this winter.
It's also why the Giants should try to sign Braden Looper to a minor-league deal. He reportedly has turned down similar offers from the Dodgers and Nationals, so it's possible that he refuses to stoop so low and will wait for a team beseiged with injuries to come calling with a guaranteed million or three. In which case, good night and good luck, Braden. Or maybe he just hates the Dodgers. I've heard such people exist.
Looper isn't good, but he has one attribute that the current candidates all lack: a good chance of pitching every fifth day. He's thrown nearly 200 innings each of the past three seasons. Wellemeyer has not. Then again, if Wellemeyer keeps pitching like this, the question will be moot. The Giants will declare him veteran lightning in a bottle and hope that as the fifth starter, he'll at least hold forth a 2006-era Jamey Wrightish run of not-badness, while Pucetas and Martinez bide their time in Fresno in case Wellemeyer's elbow goes sproing, which it has done often in his seven-year career.
Of all the free agent starting pitchers still available, Looper seems the most likely to a) make a lot of starts and b) cave into a rock-bottom offer. Pedro Martinez and John Smoltz can afford to wait til mid-year, Bartolo Colon will mistake Tim Lincecum for a Chicken McNugget, and Jarrod Washburn only wants to pitch in states where elk hunting is within a snowshoe's jog of the home stadium (and even then he turned down $5 M from the Twins in January). Hell, offer Looper half a million guaranteed with incentives for games started. Even if he flames out as a starter, he's got bullpen experience. Make him the long man. It's money well spent if it keeps Madison Bumgarner from starting the year in the bigs.
The only caveat, really -- and this also applies to Wellemeyer or the non-roster relievers in camp -- is that the Giants have already winnowed the least of the lesser lights from the 40-man roster. A quick scan makes me wonder who would be next if a NRI guy made the team. Alex Hinshaw, perhaps, though it would be painful to part with a young, hard-throwing lefty no matter how erratic he's been in his brief big-league time. Matt Downs? Brett Pill? Oh wait, I forgot: by all outsider estimation, Fred Lewis comes north with the team the same day Tommy Lasorda is named Bruce Bochy's bench coach. I'm not entirely convinced, but a lot of things will have to go right for Fred this spring to avoid a trade or DFA.
The triple-A Fresno Grizzlies could start the year with Buster Posey behind the plate and Madison Bumgarner on the mound, but the minor-league affiliate that really sets my corazón a-pitter-patter is across the country in Richmond, Virginia.
I admit I'm jumping to conclusions, but that's where a big serving of prospects could end up in April. Assignments haven't been announced, but the Giants could have Roger Kieschnick, Brandon Crawford, Conor Gillaspie, Henry Sosa, Darren Ford and Thomas Neal, who snuck onto a top-100 prospect list or two this winter, all playing for Richmond to start the year. (With Francisco Peguero perhaps joining them later.)
Some of the above prospects are more equal than others on the farm, but the larger point is this group is moving through the system at roughly the same speed. And for the first time in a good while -- before some of you were born -- it's a entire group worth watching, not just one or two guys you pray will someday muster a few key pinch-hits off the big-league bench as a sign that the Giants' farm system isn't entirely a pile of rubble. (Obviously I'm talking about position players.)
The Richmond team, by the by, is called the Flying Squirrels, and thems good eatin' I hear as long as you pick out all the buckshot. (Just keep your fuzzy Nutzy away from me, pal.) Until last year they were known as the Connecticut Defenders, which is significant, because they will no longer have to wait til June to thaw, nor will they be playing in a stadium the size of a Target Greatland. (Not sure which one had better hot dogs.)
Between the High-A juiceball of the California League and the yawning chasm of Connecticut, it was hard to get a neutral read on Giants' hitting prospects all these years. It was like sussing out the long-term relationship prospects of a hot babe with bipolar disorder. (Inappropriate? Sure. But you know what I'm talking about.) Let's hope Richmond gives us a clearer view.
I mused Friday on the possibilities for a long-term contract for Pablo Sandoval. The Chron's Hank Schulman added a tidbit this weekend, noting that the Giants won't discuss more than a one-year renewal for this season:
...team official Bobby Evans told me this morning that he and Sandoval's agent are negotiating only a one-year deal for the Panda, which has been the custom for the Giants with players owning less than two years of service time. In other words, the Giants are not ready to buy out any of Sandoval's future arbitration years.
The Giants split a pair of exhibition games today, but the big news was about Manny Burriss's left foot. Tests showed he refractured it Wednesday, and reports said he'll be in a boot for a month. Even if he's a fast healer, I have to wonder how quickly the Giants will want him back. He first broke the foot last July and missed the rest of 2009. The last thing anyone wants is for this to become a chronic problem that drives a talented kid out of baseball.
He had little chance of making the big squad on Opening Day, and his stint as the starting second baseman last year revealed some big flaws in his game. He just turned 25, and he's got a long way to go to be a decent major league hitter. But with a lot of work in AAA this year, I imagine he'd be in the running as a backup infield candidate in 2011, perhaps even a starting shortstop longshot, when Renteria is no longer a Giant. Now he'll miss at least two or three months of valuable development time on top of the lost second half last year. I feel for the guy.
Quick note about yesterday's game vs. the Brewers: I guess vegetarians can be clueless a-holes, too.
Onward.
Tim Lincecum's back-to-back Cy Youngs and arbitration case this winter spurred a lot of talk about long-term contracts for young players. What about Pablo Sandoval?
Unless his brief stint in 2008 (145 PAs, a month and a half on the big-league roster) vaults him into Super-Two status, Panda will be eligible for arbitration after the 2011 season. Do the Giants want to go year by year with him, or will they look soon to lock him up? The question with Sandoval is not his bat, it's his body. My guess is they'll wait at least another few months to see how he responds to the "Operation Panda" off-season training regimen (not to be confused with "panda operation"), though by all reports this spring he's not looking much leaner than before.
It's worth a quick review of the Giants' payroll obligations through 2014. Note that 2012 is going to be a crusher with Zito and Rowand still on the books, Lincecum due a raise from his $14 M salary in 2011, Wilson and J. Sanchez in their final arb years, and Cain perhaps testing the free-agent market.
For the sake of argument let's say the Giants wait until the next off-season to go long-term with Sandoval. At that point, Pablo will have another year under the team's total control, three years of arbitration, then free agency. This is where the spectacular Justin Upton sits, and he just signed a six-year, $51 M deal with Arizona that goes through two free agent years. Upton's deal breaks down this way: $1.25 M in 2010, $5.25 M in '11, $8 M in '12, $10.5 M in '13, and $13.2 M in '14 and '15 each. Discussing Upton, Joe Pawlikowski of Fangraphs.com offers more comps:
For comparison, Ryan Braun will earn $4, $6, and $8.5 million for his arbitration years, followed by $10 and $12 million for his first two free agent years. Hanley Ramirez's deal paid him $5.5 for his first arbitration year and will pay him $7 million for the second this year. In the third he'll make $11 million, followed by $15, $15.5, and $16 million in free agent equivalent salaries.
The most comparable [to Upton] could be David Wright, who earned $1 million in his final reserve clause season, followed by arbitration salaries of $5, $7.5, and $10 million. The Mets then have his first two free agency years at $14 and $15 million, with a $16 million club option for a third.
If Panda repeats or improves his 2009 season this year he'll be in the discussion for something similar. On offense, he's proving to be more or less the equal of Longoria and Upton (measured by wOBA). Swap out Upton for Braun, and it's a similar picture.
On defense, however, Sandoval lags behind. Longoria outshines him (and nearly everyone else) with the glove at the hot corner, and Upton in RF is good and getting better. Sandoval was merely adequate at third last year, and he's a prime candidate to move across to first base in the next couple years.
If Longoria is the ne plus ultra of young elite talent trading arbitration dollars for long-term security, Ryan Braun might be the low end of the group. Braun's defense at 3B was bad enough to merit a move to LF after one year. (And he hasn't been good in the outfield, either.)
Sandoval's D hasn't sunk to Braun's level, but if he can't keep the weight off, wear and tear will take its toll and he won't be among the truly elite young players who excel at all phases of the game. Nor will the Giants be willing to pay him as one.
Definitive Preview of Tomorrow's Crucial Preseason Opener
There once was a time when Opening Day set the tone for the entire season if you were 11 years old, a Yankee fan, or a mediocre sports columnist. Not anymore, my little media-saturated friends.
We now have the first preseason game of the year from which to draw broad inferences and inappropriate conclusions. From a game in which a handful of regulars each play a couple innings before giving way to the once-and-future Double-A Chickasaw Lumber Beetles, it's perfectly fine to spread throughout the Internets a mudslide of fear and panic or, if it's yer pleasure, awe and swagger. The Giants begin the Cactus League tomorrow. Here is a handy guide to possible action and the resulting over-reaction:
* Action: Tim Lincecum throws 20 pitches, breaks 90 MPH only once.
Reaction: OMMMGMGMGMGMGGGGG!!!!11!1!!!
* Aubrey Huff hits a 430-foot home run generously aided by a brisk desert wind.
A real cleanup hitter, finally!
* Aubrey Huff hits two 430-foot home runs generously aided by a brisk desert wind.
Early favorites to win the division.
* Fred Lewis doesn't play.
After this article, Fred's not just in the doghouse, he's in the secure undisclosed underground dog-bunker. He will never again set foot in Mays Field wearing the black and orange.
* Edgar Renteria goes 1 for 2.
He's toast!
* Nate Schierholtz doesn't play.
What the hell is Bochy doing? Free Nate! Free Nate!
* Buster Posey goes 1 for 2.
So what if it was a seeing-eye single to right field? Did you see his presence when he ran down the line? The kid has presence. I'll bet his favorite album is Led Zeppelin's Presence, he's got so much presence. He's ready. Fie, Bengie Molina, fie!
* Giants lose 7-0, get outhit 13-3.
WHY DIDNT TEH GIATNS SIGN MAT HALLIDAY??!??!
* Giants win 2-1, execute four perfect sacrifice bunts.
Bruce Bochy and his scrappy squad are showing they can adapt to the kind of game they need to play to win this year. (Bruce Jenkins edition.)
* Giants win 2-1, execute four perfect sacrifice bunts, and wear their new retro stripey socks.
More socks, please!
Got overreactions? Of course you do. Please share.
Stay tuned for the next edition of Giant Dad Throwdown: Chris Lincecum v. Vai Schierholtz. I'm not sure how this will translate into 30/30 skillz for Nate, but you better not doubt it. (Link tip from Baggs.)
I admit the identity of the next middle reliever plucked off the scrap heap is not as intriguing as near-term prognostications for the Giants' top two prospects. But it lets us answer, in a roundabout way, the following question: "Todd Welle#$%^&$meyer?!?!?"
Don't believe all the hypey hype about Bumgarner and Wellemeyer "competing" for the fifth rotation slot. It's not a field of two. Remember this: Even if MadBum makes it clear he needs to start the year in AAA, Wellemeyer doesn't automatically win. He still has to pitch well this spring, and based on his career that's no small feat. It would be a minor miracle if he could replicate his 2008 season, which was under the tutelage of St. Louis pitching coach/magician Dave Duncan. Put another way, Wellemeyer makes you realize that Brett Tomko wouldn't be such a bad idea as a fifth starter. If Wellemeyer falters, MadBum doesn't automatically bump up to the bigs. Joe Martinez, Kevin Pucetas, and Rule 5 draftee Steven Johnson are theoretically in the mix.
But I came here to talk about the bullpen. Johnson and Wellemeyer might be long or swing men, and the Giants invited seven more pitchers with big-league experience to come to camp: Santiago Casilla, Guillermo Mota, Horacio Ramirez, Eric Hacker, Tony Pena Jr., a late convert from shortstop, Denny Bautista, and Byung-Hyun Kim, returning after two years of retirement in South Korea and still only 31 years old. They'd make an interesting triple-A bullpen, but most of them are longshots to stick in the bigs. If you had to bet on one, Mota would be your man.
Before we continue, let me refresh your acquaintance with WXRL, a stat that measures a reliever's effectiveness taking into context the leverage of the situation. In other words, a strikeout with a one-run lead and two outs with the bases loaded in the ninth is more valuable than a strikeout with a five-run lead, bases empty in the eighth.
With the Dodgers Mota served up a barely passable WXRL in 2009. If he were really good, he wouldn't be a non-roster invitee. But he still throws hard with good sink, and as with any of these last-chance type guys, you never know when he'll rediscover his fleeting mojo, or squeeze a half-season of decentness from a fading talent, or allow the years of unfufilled promise finally to gel. Or in the case of Pena Jr., take a shine to pitching at a late date.
Barring injury or trade, these NRI palookas are fighting for one, perhaps two spots. So far the Giant bullpen will almost certainly include these gentlemen:
- Wilson - Runzler - Affeldt - Romo - Medders
Waldis Joaquin is often mentioned as a strong candidate, but I think he'll have to show more control to make his above-average fastball a weapon. An unsung minor-league possibility is Steve Edlefsen, who jumped three levels in 2009 and threw well in the Arizona Fall League. His success, however, is tempered by a frighteningly high walk rate. He won't survive in the bigs walking 4.5 batters per 9 innings, as he's done in the minors. A strong spring could also put Alex Hinshaw, Osiris Matos or Henry Sosa in the picture.
The looming background issue to all this bullpen discussion is whether Brian Wilson will remain the closer for years to come. In this, his first arb year, he's earning $4.4 million. It's easy to see him nearing $10 million by his final year, a massive sum for a second-tier closer. Mind you, Wilson is good, but he's not on the Rivera-Papelbon-Nathan-Broxton-Soria level. Based on WXRL, Wilson was the 23rd best reliever in the majors last year (teammate Jeremy Affeldt was 13th). Wilson was 13th in 2008. If his '08-'09 performance represents the peak of his abilities, the Giants will probably think hard about Wilson's value compared to other pitchers on staff. Keep an eye on Dan Runzler's work against right-handed batters this year. If he can retire lefties and righties in equal fashion, he might make Wilson expendable next winter. This is what's known as premature runzlermania. Please consult your doctor.
A couple days ago we examined the Bumgarner Question: Should he be the fifth starter? Now let me riddle you this Poseyism: Should Buster Posey start the year in Triple A or with the big club?
Bengie Molina is a fait accompli. (No, that's not "fat accomplice" in French.) It would have been OK to make Posey the starter with someone other than Eli Whiteside as the backup, someone like Yorvit Torrealba who could pretend to be a decent major-league catcher for a while in case Posey couldn't hack the starting assignment. But apparently Bengie Molina for the low, low price of $4.5 M was too tempting.
The Giants are making noise about limiting Bengie's squattage, which should mean his backup will get at least a couple starts a week. Should. Here's the conundrum: If Bruce Bochy is serious about resting Bengie more, Whiteside's presence in the lineup two or three times a week will be a major drag on the offense, even worse than Molina. And that will tempt Bochy to ditch his vow to rest Bengie more, especially if others in the lineup struggle.
I'm in the camp that says Posey needs to start behind the plate every day, and for now that means in Fresno. But I can imagine the slippery slope of thinking that led the Giants to muse about giving Posey work in the infield this spring. Something like this:
See, if Buster is the backup, he'll catch at least two games a week, then if he's not a clod at first base, he can start another game there, then on other days be available for pinch-hitting and double-switches....hey, all of a sudden, the kid is getting 15 to 20 at-bats a week against big leaguers, and he's sitting next to DeRosa on the bench soaking up the gritty veteran gamerness. What's not to like?
No. Stop it. Shake off this reverie. Send Posey to Fresno in April, and on June 1, when he's hitting .355 / .420 / .550 and his defense is rock-solid, we'll revisit the situation.
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Affeldt (4.5 M) Bumgarner Cain (4.5 M) Hinshaw Joaquin Lincecum (9 M) J. Martinez Medders (.85 M) Pucetas Romo Runzler J. Sanchez (2.1 M) H. Sosa B. Wilson (4.4 M) Zito (18.5 M)
CATCHERS
Molina (4.5 M)
Posey Whiteside
INFIELDERS
Burriss DeRosa (6 M) Downs Frandsen Gillaspie Huff (3 M) Ishikawa Pill Renteria (10 M) Rohlinger F. Sanchez (6 M) Sandoval Uribe (3.25 M) Velez
OUTFIELDERS
Bowker Ford Lewis Peguero Rowand (13.6 M) Schierholtz Torres
