I'm happy to report that El Lefty safely avoided the tsunami tragedy in his travels, and that he'll be back and blogging soon. But in the meantime, I'd like to build on some thoughts left in the comments section, most recently by RustedRobot.
Last year's NL West was projected to be a weak division. To the surprise of most onlookers, the division produced two 90-game winners and a third contender, the Padres, who won 87 games. Those three teams won just one game fewer than the three contenders in the fiercely competitive AL West, which nearly everyone agrees is a good division. Of course, the Giants, Dodgers and Padres all enjoyed 19 games apiece with the lowly Diamondbacks, who barely deserved their 51 wins, and an equal number with the generally stinky Rockies.
Will the NL West improve, as a whole, in 2005?
Incoming talent
J.D. Drew, Jeff Kent, Javier Vazquez, Russ Ortiz, Woody Williams (plus Alou, Benitez, Vizquel)
Outgoing talent
Randy Johnson, Adrian Beltre, Richie Sexson, David Wells, Jeromy Burnitz, Jay Payton, Vinny Castilla (plus A.J. Pierzynski, freshly inked by the White Sox to -- shocker! -- a one-year deal)
It does seem like more "impact" players have left the West than have arrived, and that the Giants have gained more than they've lost. Several more marginal players have arrived (Darrell May, Craig Counsell, Eric Young, Geoff Blum) and left (Terrence Long, Jose Lima, Hideo Nomo, Shawn Estes) as well.
Has the competitive balance shifted toward parity? The Diamondbacks have to get better. They'll still lose 95 contests even if they gain 16 games over last year's performance, but that could mean stealing a few wins apiece from the contenders too. The Rockies have lost some significant bats, and haven't repaired most of their massive problems (though they did -- sniff! -- sign Dustan Mohr to a one-year deal). The Dodgers don't figure to win quite as many games, especially without the help of role players like Steve Finley and Dave Roberts. The Padres really are the team to watch, I think: their 3B and SS are both very good players under 25, their young pitching staff could mature at the same or faster rate as the Giants' young arms, and they haven't rocked the boat too much this off-season.
Still, the Giants filled their biggest holes, and they did finish four games ahead of the Padres last year. A talented but aging team can fall apart like a tasty burrito in a cheap tortilla, though. Their slow outfield defense and several questionable bats (plus a downright poor new one in Matheny) could make it a long, cold summer, but we could just as likely see an exciting three-team race for the West crown, just like 2004.
