Not much time today, but here's a link to a post by Jon Weisman, who despite being a Dodger fan is an excellent writer. Weisman looks back on his own assessment of the post-2004 free-agent starting pitchers and shows that it's really really really hard to predict how a pitcher will perform. All the more reason not to throw mega-millions and multiple years at aging starters.
Affeldt (~4 M)
Cain (2.65 M)
English
Hinshaw
Howry (2.75 M)
Joaquin
Lincecum
Lowry (4.5 M)
Martinez
Matos
Misch
Pichardo
Romo
Sadler
Sanchez
Sosa
Taschner
Valdez
Wilson
Yabu
Zito (18.5 M)