As alluded to in the previous post, the Giant pitching staff is walking a lot of batters, not striking out many, and getting away with it red-handed.
Disclaimer: YES, YES, I know that K/BB ratios and such are not the end-all and be-all of pitching. But I hope we all agree that pitchers make their lives harder by walking batters and trying to get their outs via batted balls.
So here’s where the G’s stand:
* Second-to-last in the NL, only ahead of pitiful Washington, in K-to-BB ratio at 1.40. League leader: Cincinnati at 3.08. Major league average: 1.94.
* Dead last in the NL in strikeouts per 9 innings at 5.37. League leader: Chicago at 7.65. ML average: 6.60.
* Third in the NL in ERA at 3.21. Fourth in OBP-against at .317. FIRST in SLG-against at .342.
This means not many balls in play are falling for hits. Why? It could be thanks to a fine defense. It could be exceptional pitching. It could be luck. It’s probably a combination of all three.
Take last night: In the 4th Ethier hits a ball in the hole with zero chance of Aurilia throwing him out at first. Heads-up Aurilia throws to third to get Martin trying to advance from second. That’s fine defense and eventually saved a run. In the 5th, Lowry walks Nomah, who is caught stealing on (according to Jon Miller) a very generous call by the umpire. That’s luck. In Barry Zito’s last start, several balls were hit to the warning track, most likely gone in many other parks. That could be luck, that could be defensive positioning, that could be a smart pitcher letting the ballpark absorb outs.
* Opposing baserunners aren’t taking extra bases. For what it’s worth, the Giants are tops in the NL with only 5 stolen bases allowed. (San Diego has allowed 21!)
Can a pitching staff thrive like this over a full season? I don’t have time to do deeper research, but just for fun I’ve looked at the K-BB ratios of the World Series teams of the ‘00s. The worst ratio is 1.8, shared by the ‘00 Yanks and the ‘06 Cards. The ‘02 Giants were 1.9. Remember, the ‘07 Giants are 1.4 so far, the ML average is 1.9. Every other WS team is above that.
I’m sure you can poke holes in that statistic as a measure of team success, but at least it’s a good conversation starter.
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P.M. UPDATE: Buried in Will Carroll’s latest injury report is this tidbit: “If Tim Lincecum isn't on a roster in your league already, it's time to grab him. If you're looking for saves and strikeouts, grab him fast.” What does Will know that we don’t? Carroll’s record on rumors probably isn’t any better than other mongers, but maybe someone tipped him off that Lincecum is being prepped for short-relief work.
I also appreciate Baseball Prospectus writer Kevin Goldstein’s note on Mark Prior’s surgery, which revealed lots and lots of damage. In short Goldstein tells loudmouth couch-potato fans and commentators to think twice before calling a player a wuss.
