When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

05.14.2007
Out of It: The AL

The last couple weeks, a few teams expected to compete have begun to fall to the side. Thanks to some lucky good health and a generally fabulous starting rotation, the Giants are not among them, though for some pundits the Giants weren't expected to compete in the first place. That said, let's have a quick look at which American League teams might be willing to trade talent early, and whether that talent is a good fit for the Giants.

Yankees: Eight games back, there's no way in hell Steinbrenner, Cashman or Torre waves the white flag. But the team may be persuaded to deal one of its high-priced hitters for more pitching. Bobby Abreu has been awful so far (1 HR, .602 OPS), but how long will he stay awful? Hideki Matsui is another the Yanks could spare. The big question: would the Giants want the contracts of either player, both of whom could head quickly toward DH-land in the next couple years? Trading Matt Morris would help recoup some salary, but the Giants would still take on a lot of dough for either Abreu ($15 M pro-rated this year, $16 M club option or $2 M buyout in '08) or Matsui ('07: $13M, '08:$13M, '09:$13M). And both of them have full no-trade clauses.

Blue Jays: Ten and a half games back, and sinking fast under the burden of injuries. Troy Glaus is an obvious candidate to move, and boy howdy would the Giants love a right-handed hitting 3B. They could also give him time at 1B to ease his aches and pains. Even his contract isn't that outrageous: $10.75M this year, $12.75M next year, and a $11.25M player option in '09. However, he's got a no-trade. If they keep him healthy and happy, Glaus could also solve the Giants' first-base dilemma for the next few years.

Orioles: Not really expected to contend, but this team is going to improve because of its young pitching, not high-paid hitters like Miguel Tejada and Melvin Mora. I'm not a big proponent of trading for Mora, but Tejada's contract ('07: $12M, '08: $13M, '09: $13M) doesn't look that bad in light of recent inflation. Even if he's in slow decline, which his batting stats suggest, he'd provide instant protection behind Bonds this year and a fairly reasonable offensive cornerstone for two more years. For Vizquel and two pitchers other than Cain or Lincecum, I'd think seriously about getting Tejada.



Later this week: The N.L.



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[May 14, 2007 8:23 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ogc said

Hell no to Abreu! He has no power at all, his only value is getting on base and stealing bases, plus his power has been on a long term decline, will he even get 10 HR this year? He gets on base much better than Winn, who he would displace, but that is not much better than Winn, I would not give up much to take on his salary PLUS lose prospects PLUS put Winn on bench. Even trading Winn, I don't think we should give up much of a prospect for that upgrade.

Matsui is OK, but he's 33 this season and his power is down the past two seasons as well. He's a marginal upgrade over Winn because of that, not worth giving up much to get that unless the Yankees take Winn as well. Plus he's mainly a LF and we already have a pretty good LF, better than he.

Glaus seems like a good idea, but he's never played 1B. And I've not seen him mentioned as a particularly good defensive 3B, so his defense at 1B could be bad. And this is the 3rd season in 5 that he has missed extensive time on the DL.

Tejada power has already declined the past couple of years, do we really want to risk an Alfonzo redux? And his power is not much more than Durham the past couple of years, is that worth adding $10M to the payroll plus lose some good pitchers (they would probably want Lowry and Sanchez).

I would rather try to get back Accardo from the Blue Jays before his price goes up any more.

The fact is that any upgrade offensively will take away Lowry most probably, so you take away greatly from the starting rotation but then either marginally improve at one position offensively and/or risk paying big bucks for a declining power hitter for a couple more years. Those are too big a risk to take for the future, to me, I would rather keep our future rotation looking very strong than to add any old declining, injured player to the roster.

If we can't win this season, so be it, I'm not willing to go all out to win Bonds a World Series, it is not like he gave us a home discount or anything, so we don't owe him anything.

I would rather keep the young pitching strong going forward, then with free agency clearing out spots, then we can look to trade from strength for an open position or even sign a young buck to upgrade a position. Getting an old, declining, expensive player now is just putting us back on that train again, I would rather build for the future and let whoever is on the roster battle for things. Especially after seeing Lewis energize things like he did, Frandsen too.

Frankly, I still think the team is capable of great things if pitchers can pitch, and the hitters can hit, to their capabilities. We saw what they can do early on, let's see if they can get on a roll or three again.

[May 14, 2007 11:00 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Joe M said

ogc:"...the team is capable of great things if pitchers can pitch, and the hitters can hit, to their capabilities."
No shit.
Is there any team out there that isn't capable of "great things" if their pitchers pitch and hitters hit?
If what you meant to say is 'If Aurilia hits like he did when he was on steroids, Winn puts together a whole year like his career month 2 seasons ago, Roberts stays healthy for a whole season for the first time in his career, Visquel hits like he was 5 years younger, Feliz finally learns to hit, Klesko hits like he did pre-testing while in Atlanta and Durham stays healthy a whole year, the Giants will be great' then I agree with you, but you know what, it isn't going to happen.
Don't get too swept up with a great offensive day from the 2 new guys either. Frandsen had a few hits despite not hitting the ball hard or well and Lewis did what he never did at any level until Sunday. Pitchers will adjust, as they did after Linden, Niekro and dozens of other young Giant hitters after they did well after being called up. One player, Feliz, still hasn't adapted and for some reason finds himself a starter with a $5 mil contract.
I agree that the trades mentioned would not be a good idea. If Seattle isn't going to re-sign Ichiro, SF should talk to them, at least they'll have something to show for his departure.
St. Louis is hurting in the pitching dept., maybe they welcome Morris back, or instead seek Lowry; wonder if they would part with Chris Duncan, a first baseman playing the outfield because of Pujols.

[May 14, 2007 11:57 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Reeky said

The Giants are competing? Bullcrap! They're over .500 and lucky to be there. Now's when the wiley Sabean does stealth rebuild, growing a killer rotation, grooming some decent bullpen, and putting a reasonably entertaining team on the field to keep butts in the seats. Unless there's a ganga deal like Feliz for Glaus -- hey he's durable! -- don't do nothin'!

[May 15, 2007 12:12 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Josh from Hollywood said

Wait Martin, now you want Accardo back? I remember having it out with you over the Accardo trade last July, when you were in favor of it, right here:

http://www.mccoveychronicles.com/story/2006/7/22/23532/0552

I love Accardo and always have -- he's by far my favorite Giants reliever since Nen retired -- but I'm surprised to see you do a 180 on him so quickly. He struggled mightily in Toronto last year after the trade, so I can only assume you're basing your enthusiasm in him on the 17 or so IP he's had this year. As dominant as it has been, that's not a lot to base an opinion on. Don't get me wrong, I'd take Accardo back in a second, but you don't see too many GMs who fleece another team out of a promising young player, then turn around and give him right back. At least, not for anything less than a king's ransom.

[May 15, 2007 1:56 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Frank said

Of those mentioned, Glaus probably makes the most sense. But that seems also unlikely. According to SI, the dodgers, Angels, Phillies, Braves and Orioles are scouting him. Noteworthy is the absence of the "Giants" in the article.
I am inclined to think that getting real help will b e too expensive. Better to make these trades over the winter, when ransoms aren't so regularly sought. People throw out all sorts of names, but they are generally in pretty much the same classm as what we have. It looks like Bochy is moving towards a Klesko/Aurilia platton at 1b. If he will sit Richie enough, I think we can get 280/330/390. I think we can live with that. I would like to see Bochy keep Richie and Klesko at 1b, and platoon Feliz and Frandsen at 3b. I know I'll get ripped for this, but I think FeliZ will hit 270/maybe 310/430; Frandsen will have a better OBP, and poorer SLG. I think we are better of sticking with the players we have and hope that, for the most part, they hit their career averages (OF, 2b, SS, C) with the improvement (for the positions) I've outlined. That, I think is enough to win the division. The good news is we know why Roberts wasn't performing. Hopefully Lewis/Ortmeier/Schierholtz give us 250/320/??? until Roberts gets back, at which time he should hit his career averages.

[May 15, 2007 3:02 AM]  |  link  |  reply
BawLa said

If you had asked one week ago, I probably would've been willing to part with a Morris or Lowry. But now I think we need to keep both. The worst thing to do might be to jump the gun on a trade trying to seek instant gratification.

Morris was brought in to provide veteran experience for a young pitching staff. And I think he's doing a good job. He's putting up decent numbers, and more importantly he is showing the kids how to battle. And I think we need to keep him for another year. We can trade him next year when Sanchez is ready. Keeping Morris will be an easier transition for Zito, who must feel old next to Cain and Timmy. Cain has only one real year under his belt; Lowry has 2 1/2; Tim has none obviously. A little more guidance from Morris and Zito will make these kids special.

If you look at sucessful organizations in any sport, the majority win championships by building through youth and talent, making some key veteran acquisitions to help develop said youth, and getting a little bit lucky. Last year I thought the entire team was going to just die in front of my eyes - they had no pulse. The energy that these kids bring is refreshing, and watching them lose is much more bearable than watching the oldies lose.


First, the ---iz brothers got to go. Feliz and Ortiz. Trade 'em for whatever player/prospect we can get and be done with it. Timmy stays, Sanchez back to AAA - to get back into starting pitching mode. We leave him down there for the rest of the year, telling him that he will be back up next year. Develop youth, ride the end of Bonds's career, make whatever run at the pennant we can this year.

Listen guys. We have $35 million coming off the books after this year. Now there is a slight chance we ride the Bonds train for one more year after this, but either way, we will have some money to work with. Then, one year later, we will have another $23 million off the slate along with $20 million more after the '09 season. Now I don't know what that translates to in this market, but I think we have enough money to go get a Cabrerra or whoever. So meanwhile we should just bear with the bumps in the road with the kids and continue to stay the course. Pennant in '09.

[May 15, 2007 3:54 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Evan said

I don't think Matsui's going to be traded. He's playing well and he's considered a "true Yankee," which counts for everything around here. Abreu, though . . . I can see them deciding to dump him. It's hard to believe how feeble he's become; he barely looks like a major league player these days. Still, he's got nine superb years under his belt. I'd rather have Abreu than Matt Morris, that's for sure.

Ever since he first came up, Glaus has reminded me of Mark McGwire, and I can see him shaking off the nagging injuries, perfecting his home run stroke, and taking off in his early thirties just as McGwire did. I'd move him to first base immediately, though.

Tejada ... meh. 31 and already a subpar fielder. He's not going to be worth the money.