The last couple weeks, a few teams expected to compete have begun to fall to the side. Thanks to some lucky good health and a generally fabulous starting rotation, the Giants are not among them, though for some pundits the Giants weren't expected to compete in the first place. That said, let's have a quick look at which American League teams might be willing to trade talent early, and whether that talent is a good fit for the Giants.
Yankees: Eight games back, there's no way in hell Steinbrenner, Cashman or Torre waves the white flag. But the team may be persuaded to deal one of its high-priced hitters for more pitching. Bobby Abreu has been awful so far (1 HR, .602 OPS), but how long will he stay awful? Hideki Matsui is another the Yanks could spare. The big question: would the Giants want the contracts of either player, both of whom could head quickly toward DH-land in the next couple years? Trading Matt Morris would help recoup some salary, but the Giants would still take on a lot of dough for either Abreu ($15 M pro-rated this year, $16 M club option or $2 M buyout in '08) or Matsui ('07: $13M, '08:$13M, '09:$13M). And both of them have full no-trade clauses.
Blue Jays: Ten and a half games back, and sinking fast under the burden of injuries. Troy Glaus is an obvious candidate to move, and boy howdy would the Giants love a right-handed hitting 3B. They could also give him time at 1B to ease his aches and pains. Even his contract isn't that outrageous: $10.75M this year, $12.75M next year, and a $11.25M player option in '09. However, he's got a no-trade. If they keep him healthy and happy, Glaus could also solve the Giants' first-base dilemma for the next few years.
Orioles: Not really expected to contend, but this team is going to improve because of its young pitching, not high-paid hitters like Miguel Tejada and Melvin Mora. I'm not a big proponent of trading for Mora, but Tejada's contract ('07: $12M, '08: $13M, '09: $13M) doesn't look that bad in light of recent inflation. Even if he's in slow decline, which his batting stats suggest, he'd provide instant protection behind Bonds this year and a fairly reasonable offensive cornerstone for two more years. For Vizquel and two pitchers other than Cain or Lincecum, I'd think seriously about getting Tejada.
Later this week: The N.L.
Hell no to Abreu! He has no power at all, his only value is getting on base and stealing bases, plus his power has been on a long term decline, will he even get 10 HR this year? He gets on base much better than Winn, who he would displace, but that is not much better than Winn, I would not give up much to take on his salary PLUS lose prospects PLUS put Winn on bench. Even trading Winn, I don't think we should give up much of a prospect for that upgrade.
Matsui is OK, but he's 33 this season and his power is down the past two seasons as well. He's a marginal upgrade over Winn because of that, not worth giving up much to get that unless the Yankees take Winn as well. Plus he's mainly a LF and we already have a pretty good LF, better than he.
Glaus seems like a good idea, but he's never played 1B. And I've not seen him mentioned as a particularly good defensive 3B, so his defense at 1B could be bad. And this is the 3rd season in 5 that he has missed extensive time on the DL.
Tejada power has already declined the past couple of years, do we really want to risk an Alfonzo redux? And his power is not much more than Durham the past couple of years, is that worth adding $10M to the payroll plus lose some good pitchers (they would probably want Lowry and Sanchez).
I would rather try to get back Accardo from the Blue Jays before his price goes up any more.
The fact is that any upgrade offensively will take away Lowry most probably, so you take away greatly from the starting rotation but then either marginally improve at one position offensively and/or risk paying big bucks for a declining power hitter for a couple more years. Those are too big a risk to take for the future, to me, I would rather keep our future rotation looking very strong than to add any old declining, injured player to the roster.
If we can't win this season, so be it, I'm not willing to go all out to win Bonds a World Series, it is not like he gave us a home discount or anything, so we don't owe him anything.
I would rather keep the young pitching strong going forward, then with free agency clearing out spots, then we can look to trade from strength for an open position or even sign a young buck to upgrade a position. Getting an old, declining, expensive player now is just putting us back on that train again, I would rather build for the future and let whoever is on the roster battle for things. Especially after seeing Lewis energize things like he did, Frandsen too.
Frankly, I still think the team is capable of great things if pitchers can pitch, and the hitters can hit, to their capabilities. We saw what they can do early on, let's see if they can get on a roll or three again.