I'm guessing the team in the quote is the Yankees.

I'd love for the team the rebuild, but the young pitching talent isn't going to lead the league in runs scored, or driven in. Unless of course, Lowry and Sanchez are batting for you. Position talent is tough to find, I have to believe we can get rid of pieces that aren't working now to get some of that talent.

I'm guessing the team in the quote is the Yankees.

I'd love for the team the rebuild, but the young pitching talent isn't going to lead the league in runs scored, or driven in. Unless of course, Lowry and Sanchez are batting for you. Position talent is tough to find, I have to believe we can get rid of pieces that aren't working now to get some of that talent.

I'm not quite clear of your question. Are you just asking point blank: could you be a fan of this team (the Giants) if they were to tear down and go with youngsters? Or are you asking: would you be willing to buy tickets, go to games and spend time at the yard if the team were to tear down and go with youngsters?

I'll always be a fan. I will cheer this team on into the 9th inning even if they're down by 15 runs. What I won't (or rather, can't afford to do) is pay close to 100 bucks to feel dejected afterward. I could do that for free by going into the street and trying to teach myself how to skateboard.

Like you mentioned Lefty, most fans don't have bottomless wallets. What little money we do have is really precious to us. It dictates what kind of "quality" of life you have, so-to-speak. So I totally understand if a fan doesn't want to pony up money to be disappointed.

As for you idea of a "stealth rebuild" you mentioned toward the end of your post, I totally endorse this idea. I don't think every team must completely tear down and start over like the Florida Marlins. I think teams can make smart decisions to keep the team competitive while refraining from forfeiting any of the future.

This past offseason was a solid one by Sabean. None of the veterans signed will hurt this team two years from now. Actually, aren't most (if not all) of the veterans currently on the roster pretty much going to be out of the Giants' hair in two years? That gives ample time for the recent draft classes (which have been featuring more position players) to work their way to the bigs.

I'm not saying in two years all of the Giants' youth will be able to ride the bus to Mays Field. I'm just saying that there won't be many blockages of youth by older guys. There also won't be many big contracts to get in the way of signing any missing pieces that the team may need as well.

Simply: yes, I'll always be a fan. I'll be a fan of a 59-103 team, just as I'd be a fan of a 103-59 team. I will just feel that my money can be better spent elsewhere if the team is the former rather than the latter.

I am pleased that the rebuild is underway, well underway, actually.
To date, we have a starting rotation that is the envy of virtaully all MLB teams (maybe not San Diego), and not just 5, but 7 deep anyway and many candidates for spots 8,9,10. The bullpen is coming along just fine, thank you very much. I am hoping Misch get some time up here, and,hopefully, before September callups. The only truly old guys in the pen are Kline and Ortiz. The other guys aren't 22, 23, but they have many years ahead of them and are extremely well backed up all down the organization.
As I have said on othe rposts, we are set for next year at C, CF, RF. Barring a trade, we have guys signed for 2b, and part of a platoon at 1b. We're auditioning Schierholtz, Lewis will probably get more time in September. I expect Bonds and Klesko back, maybe Feliz. I am looking forward to the rest of this year, altho I would like to see our guys perform up to their and our expectations. I think Roberts will do well now that he is recovered. God, I hope the same is true of Durham. I hope Aurilia recovers fully and hits 275 the rest of the way. Frandsen seems to finally be performing June: 280/357/440).
I am also looking forward to the trading season (July) altho I expect we will be relatively quiet, this winter, and to ST, to see if we bring Bonds back as a super 4th OF and how we deal w/ the infield.

The reason to devote time and energy to baseball is if it makes you feel better. Winning is fun. Losing with a growing team (a-la 49ers these last years) is also moderately fun. Losing with a loser team is not fun. A bunch of old folks who lack physical tools (due to their age) and who appear to lack motivation (body language) - is a loser team.

So the conclusion is simple: they are not putting an entertaining product on the field for me, so I will not put my dollars into their pocket until they do.

And don't try to hook me with the "loyal fan" marketing campaign they'll pull out of the closet in the next few years. "Fan Loyalty" can be loosely translated: loyally pay me your money while loyally ignoring the crap you're getting in return.

There is some truth to what you say. The reality is that the Giants' starting pitching is strong enough that they don't really have to do a complete rebuild. A wholesale rebuild usually means dumping everything of value and starting over. The Giants are not in that position. However, I'm sick of rooting for a team built around an aging, a**hole superstar. The Giants have had low energy and bad chemistry for years. Kids like Frandsen can breathe some life for a few weeks, but eventually the Barry show stifles it. And signing Alex Rodriguez will put us right back where we started with Bonds. I'm not asking for a miracle, but we've had the game's biggest a**hole for the last 14 years. Why not try something different? Baer and Magowan have a freebie this year with the Aaron chase and the All-Star Game, so it's hard to know what they are really thinking in terms of a rebuild.

Ok I'm rambling. To answer your question, this is what I would love to see: Trade any of Durham and Klesko, and Feliz for anything you can get, and start Frandsen the rest of the season. Explore a trade pitching prospects for some combination of Tampa's young hitters, either at the deadline or in the offseason. Dangle Morris for a really solid AAA 1B or 3B who is very close to majors-ready. Pursue a young free agent OF, 3B or 1B in the offseason. Try to re-sign Omar to a small, one-year extension. Encourage Barry to sign on as a DH somewhere else for a compensation pick at the end of the season. If not, give him a front office-job based in Southern California. Turn his oversized locker into two normal lockers, bronze his recliner and give it to him as a retirement gift.

I am a fan regardless. I became a Giants fan in 1976; if bad baseball could scare me off I would have been long gone by now. It's a great feeling when the supposedely wretched team you're following pleasantly surprises you, like the Giants did in 1978, 1982, 1986, 1993 and 1997.

And while I like the current roster more than most, I would fully support a complete rebuild. If Bonds, Winn, Morris, Molina, Klesko, Roberts, Vizquel, Feliz, Sweeney and Durham were all shipped out tomorrow for intriguing pieces, I would be happy.

Not that following kids is always fun. No one's at-bats are more difficult for me to watch than Frandsen's this year; not even Feliz's. I can't stand bad defense (Lewis) or walks (Sanchez, Taschner, Cain, Lincecum). But the "sign stopgap free agents to backloaded contracts" shell game can't go on forever, and it's fun to watch when young players finally start to put it all together.

As far as my money is concerned, well, if things get really bad I would definitely consider dumping my season tickets, if only because I would be worried about selling my extras. (I make it to 25-30 games a season tops.)

>if things get really bad I would definitely consider dumping my season tickets

OK, let's parse this a little more. You support a total rebuild, but you'd dump the ST's if things get really bad.

And JohnP says he'll only pay for an "entertaining product...".

What if the team sincerely tries to start from scratch but the result, at least for a couple years, gets really bad, or in John's words, isn't very entertaining?

And if you guys, the most rabid fans (and if you're not, why the hell are you hanging out on Giants-related blogs??), hesitate to spend money for "bad product," how do you think the casual fan feels?

Therein lies management's conundrum.

by the way, the team in the paragraph above is teh White Sox, and the writer is Bbaseball Prospectus's Nate Silver.

You're right, Lefty. My wife and I would still be buying fifty tickets somehow. We just wouldn't feel the need to buy another 286 tickets that we would struggle to sell. (We currently buy four seats.) The season ticket base would start to crumble during a rebuild, no doubt. This is a solid argument for always having a great team, but at some point this becomes impossible.

Anyway, we'd stick it out as fans; we're hooked on this nonsense. But an attitude of "you're rebuilding? good! call me when you're done!" is pretty defensible as well. That's kind of where I was with the Warriors, as basketball falls well below baseball on my list of priorities. This saved me a lot of misery over the past decade, but there's no way I could have possibly enjoyed the Mavericks series as much as the faithful who stuck with the team the whole time.

my guess is . . . The San Antonio Spurs, the oldest team in the NBA with 8 players over 30 years of age (oh yeah and another ring).

This is no doubt a tough assignment for management. But I guess it just comes with the job.

First of all, rebuilding on the fly does not work. I've seen it attempted in many sports with very, very little success. In most cases, rebuilding on the fly just prolongs the inevitable tear-down. With that said, I think the Giants have been successfully rebuilding (unofficially) over the last couple years. The majority of our pitching staff is young, and we have a few position players that may work out.

Our offense was centered around Barry for the last decade and it is time to find a new centerpiece. I think many fans (as noted earlier) are ready to move on. And it makes more sense for Barry to move to DH if he wants to continue his career. So rebuilding our lineup starts with removing Barry. I may have already made this quite clear before, but I think our new centerpiece should be Miguel Cabrera. The reasons why should be very obvious.

My rebuild suggestion hinges entirely on the premise that we sign Cabrera.

You then still have plenty of money to nab an outfielder like Aaron Rowand.

The rest of the FA money goes to resignings. Our new closer should be one of the talented arms in the system. Try 'em all out, identify the best potential closer, and groom him.

Trade Morris for a top 1B prospect.

Lineup in '08:

Roberts - CF
Winn - LF
Rowand - RF
Cabrera - 3B
Prospect - 1B
Molina - C
Durham - 2B
Frandsen - SS

(Would you pay to see that lineup behind our pitching?)

bench - Knoedler, Klesko, Aurilia,

All of our AAA hitting prospects compete for 2 bench positions.

This is an example of just one way to go about rebuilding. This roster would have more youth and fire without just handing the reigns to a AAA team. And I still think it's safe to say that the fans won't care who is in the lineup, as long as the team wins. Either way, the first thing our management must do is make it official that we are starting a new era. Be straight-forward with the fans and start making solid moves. With over 1/3 of the payroll to work with in the offseason, it should be relatively easy to do that. It doesn't have to be Miguel Cabrera either. There are others like Ichiro and A-Rod that we can build the team around. Age is definitely a deciding factor for me though.

This rebuild idea is just the first step. Next year would be Yr. 1 officially. With $20M coming off in '08 and $20M coming off in '09, we will have enough money to maintain forward progress.

The fans can drag on about Sabeans mistakes in the past or how we should've won in the past or blah blah blah. Whether or not Sabean is at the helm, I for one am ready to embrace the new era in Giants baseball.

I'm getting sick of hearing people cry for a full rebuild, how "fun" a rebuild is. Rebuilding is no panacea and it is never as short as a year or two.

Ask the Nats/Expos (97-present), Rangers (00-present), Royals (90-present) and Pirates (93-present) how long they have been rebuilding. Ask the Reds (96-present)and Orioles (98-present), who fired the same manager (Davey Johnson) after winning the division, how long it has been to "rebuild".

People cry for a rebuild, drive all the vets out of the team, but when push comes to shove, their "BUT" comes out loud and clear: "but I'll only tolerate it for maybe a year or two."

Few teams rebuild in a year or two. Examine the teams who are going good now, whether recently or over a long period of time and you will find that most go through MANY (4+) years of losing or so-so seasons (many of them horrible sub-.450 teams, or less than 72 wins) before winning consistently again: Twins (93-00), A's (93-98), Braves (85-90), Padres (99-03), Tigers (94-05), Angels (90-01), Brewers (93-04), Astros (87-93), Phillies (87-00), Marlins (93-96, 98-02, 04-present), Mets (01-05), Yankees (89-92), ChiSox (84-89), Boston (92-94), Mariners (04-06), Cards (88-99).

Or worse, fall into a malaise of teams mainly not bad, but not good either (with maybe one or two good year, some bad years, then a return to malaise of .450-.550 ball): Cubs (1940-present), Indians (57-93; 02-06), Angels (87-01), Brewers (83-present; with bad 01-04), Dodgers (98-05), Toronto (94-present), Giants in the past (72-85; 91-96).

Rebuilds are never pretty, they typically are long and some of them are nasty, and others last for generations of fans. And I'm not talking about winning the World Series, I'm just talking about winning consistently at a high percentage, with a number of playoff appearances.

Some cry for Depodesta, but I was not impressed with what he did with LA when he was in charge. Apparently, neither was the owner, so he got the next best thing to Sabean - Colletti.

Meanwhile, people say that Sabean is the problem, but he's already stealthily rebuild the entire pitching staff over the past two plus seasons and it is pretty much done now, with tweaking for the closer we need. Any pitchers we develop after that is gravy that allows us to trade for good young position prospects.

And what's the big deal about not finding a position prospect all these years when he's rebuild the whole pitching staff. Show me how many winning team that has rebuild their team strictly from their own players, with no free agents or picking up players via draft 5 or trading to get the players you need.

Who are the homegrown stars for Detroit last year? Inge, Granderson, and Verlander. The rest are free agents or players they got in trades. Cards? Pujols basically last year, though they had a young star in Duncan. The rest were basically trades.

People say they want young, well, the whole staff is young. People complain about the bullpen, but that's what you get when you rebuild, inconsistency in results, in other words, "no veteran-like performance." You can't have it both ways.

The grass is always greener in the neighbor's yard until you get there and find that there's crab-grass and weeds there too. You need to appreciate what you got.

Nice post BawLa, but unfortunately Cabrera isn't a free agent for at least another season (either after 2008 season or 2009 season, depends on how his first year is handled; where can we check this?). Most of the complainers can't wait that long. We would have to trade for him, probably giving up at least a Cain or Lincecum, and risk losing him for a draft pick if he decides to go free agent on us.

Also, you claim age is an issue and yet list Ichiro (34 for next season) and A-Rod (soon 32) who are both past their physical peak years. Dunn is probably best you can get in position player, if I remember a diary on MCC on free agents for next season, and that's only if he is traded this season.

FYI: Cabrera was signed at age 16 and made the majors at age 20, four years later; that is probably THE ideal best case scenario for Villalona. So I would expect at 5-6 years to be conservative. Anyone aware of any faster rises? Anyone aware of any article comparing how good Cabrera was at 16 with how good Villalona was?

Can someone (anyone) explain to me how we are not just two impact bats away from completing a rebuild that will set us up to compete in 2008?

The rebuild of both the rotation (obviously) and in my judgement the bullpen too (they are now 4th in the NL in ERA at 3.67 with an almost 2/1 K/BB ratio and a 1.30 WHIP) is done.

We are set a C (Molina & Alfonzo) 2B/SS (Durham, Aurilia, & Frandsen) Outfield (Winn, Roberts, Lewis, Ortmeier, & Schierholtz). All we need is the right two bats at 1B and 3B.

We are oh so close. Why does anyone want to blow this all up and put ourselves in a position where we will have to wait another 3 or more years until we can compete again?

I think the truest thing, the think almost certain to happen is that the fans who are discontent now, will be discontent in '08, '09 and in any year the Giants play like they have in '07 or '06, or '05.
Fans say they are tired of aged veterans. Look around the league, it is littered with Todd Linden clones. Look at Gordon in KC, Kouzmanoff in SD, Encarnacion in Cinci, the Dodgers position prospects, this year and last. There are a LOT of failures. And usually, you have to stick with a guy for 2 seasons before you can tell if he's going to make it.
Fans were enthusiastic about Lewis after he hit for the cycle. After ab out a week, the criticism started. He took bad routes, he got a bad jump on the ball...
Fans are pissed off over '05, '06, now '07. Really, they are spoiled after 1999-2004. Whoever the GM is and whatever the age of the team is, if they don't win 16 or 17 games out of 30, these fans are going to be pissed and call for a change. Look at Linececum. Three bad starts and people are considering sending him down. Another two weeks of Lewis and I am sure the fans would be clamoring to send him down for "more seasoning."
Like OGC, I am really pleased that the "rebuild" is going on now, and has made substantial progress.

GRM,

I agree with you completely about the pitching staff. Sabean has done a tremendous job of building a superior rotation and bullpen.

Looking at 2008, I'm not so sure we're as set in the field as you are. Molina's 2007 is above his career average. Next year he'll be 33. It's unlikely he'll repeat his performance.

Durham will be 36 next year. His history of injuries argues against him contributing much in 2008.

Finally, I'm not nearly as confident in your list of outfielders.

Overall, we may need more than two impact bats to contend in 2008. I agree that we're closer than most people think, though.

ogc - You are right. Rebuilding is usually a 4 year process. First you have to stockpile young talent. Then you need to develop it. All while keeping the fans interested so you can keep the payroll at its normal level. Instead of rebuilding the whole team at the same time, Sabean has cleverly rebuilt one half at a time. The fans are starting to get mad, but if they realized we were rebuilding, they might think differently.

The pitching staff has been almost entirely remade. What do the fans think Jamey Wright and Brett Tomko were here for? It took 2 years to get our kids comfortable, it will take 2 more before they are completely dominant.

The other half is remaking our batting lineup. As I stated before we need a new superstar and I think we need to do whatever it takes to get that person here. Once we have a new identity, we can surround him with talent. And if the fans do not think we have potential talent in AAA then they are delusional. Sure, we had issues with Niekro and Linden - it happens to every team. But we gave them both a chance: Linden - 228 Games , Niekro - 195 Games. Right now we have Horwitz, Schierholtz, Timpner, De La Rosa, Figueroa, and Knoedler all batting over .300 in AAA. I'm not suggesting that they are all future all-stars, but I think a couple of them could be contributors.

ogc - Can you show me where it says Cabrera is signed through '08? Because according to Cot's, Miguel signed a 1 year contract for $7.4M for 2007 with no team or player options for '08 or '09.

http://mlbcontracts.blogspot.com/2005_01_19_mlbcontracts_archive.html

My guess is we can sign him to a 6 year, $90-$95M contract.

And when Villalona comes up it will be the perfect time for Miggy to move to 1B or LF.

I like Rowand a lot. Perfect fit for our park and pitchers. . .

Rowand will be relatively cheap - he's commanding less than $5M this year so I wouldn't expect him to go over $10M. He can also be an inspiration for guys like Schierholtz, Ortmeier, etc.

Good point GRM, if we get the right bats, we could be smoking offensively and that would go nicely with our rotation.

The more I think about it, the more I want to keep the rotation intact. I think it would be better to trade off prospects to get these 1B and 3B. And obviously Sanchez would be our best trading chip for that.

But Frank, I would not compare all those players with Linden, Kouzmanoff started hitting really well in May, I think Gordon too, and Encarnacion is way better than Linden. About LA prospects, though, I can see them as their Lindens. But everything else you noted is spot on, I think, people want the idea of young players but don't realize that for every Hanley Ramirez, there's a whole bunch of Hee Seop Choi who never amount to anything.

Cabrera signed a one-year deal in his first arbitration-eligible season. He has two more arbitration-eligible seasons and will become a free agent after the 2009 season.

One team that's been able to rebuild on the fly: The Atlanta Braves. Truly amazing what John Schuerholz has done.

Let's also give some credit to the Yankees. Sure, they rebuild by throwing wads of cash around, but it's not hard to spend lots of cash and still be a perennial loser, a la Baltimore.

BawLa, you are preaching to the choir, I've been writing about the Giants stealth rebuild for a while now, because I got tired of hearing how we don't have a productive farm system and that we have such an old team.

About Cabrera, you have to remember that teams control their players for 6 years - 3 cheaply, 3 relatively cheaply via arbitration - before they can go free agent. Depending on whether his first season counted enough days or not (don't know how exactly that works; I used baseball-reference.com for his career stats), Cabrera is a free agent the way I noted above.

And there's no way we get Cabrera for 6 years at about $16M per year, Carlos Lee got that and Cabrera is way better than Lee, if Cabrera only got that much, I would fire his agent. And by the time he really is eligible for free agency, he's looking at $20M per, at least.

About Villalona, the more I hear about him, the more I think he's playing 1B. He's a huge guy already and he's only 16, nearing 17, and now eating good ol' fatty and large portioned American food. That don't bode well for being nimble and fielding the hot corner.

And excuse me, but how is Rowand at $10M a good deal? He's like a younger Randy Winn with a little more power but less speed plus a bit more defense. After his hot April, he is back to Winn-level production. If that is one of our options, I would rather pay A-Rod a mega-contract, I'm tired of getting OK producers at up the middle positions, I want to get someone good on one of the corners.

I think if you want someone good for 2008, A-Rod is the way to go, he'll be 32 next year, and he seems to be going strong. I wouldn't mind a Furcal type of contract where you overpay him in order to get him to sign for less years. He's probably looking for $20M per year for 7-8 years, but maybe we can get him to take 4 years at $25-30M or something.

Jefferson, where do you get that Molina is overproducing? His OPS is basically the same as the past two years, why is that over performing? OPS last three seasons: .782, .786, .787; he's only 1 OPS point above last year's, how is that unsustainable? Particularly since catchers take longer to develop, they start hitting better in their mid-30's, assuming they were good enough to keep playing into their 30's.

About Durham, look at his SF career stats. He has been pretty consistently an 800+ OPS hitter for us at 2B, which typically ranks us #1 or #2 in the NL at 2B, and while he has been injured, he has still logged about 550 plate appearances the past three seasons, that's over 80% of the available plate appearances. As long as we have someone like Frandsen or Aurilia ready to take his spot when his inevitable DL happens, we are covered nicely.

About the outfield, he just said that we are set, not that it is great. Roberts is about average for CF, average CF stats since 2000 is .270/.335/.430/.765 and Roberts the past two seasons is roughly .285/.358/.410/.768, and that's good since we want higher OBP out of our leadoff hitter.

Winn has bounced around .800 OPS the past 6 years, about .295/.350/.445/.795 and the average RF since 2000 is .276/.350/.463/.813 (slightly more for LF, .817 OPS, when Schierholtz plays RF), so he's a little below average but not significantly so.

While it is hoping for too much that Lewis and Schierholtz can hit .813 or .817 OPS for us in the corner OF spots, they have both looked better than Linden has ever has.

That makes it all that much more important that we pick up a great hitter for either 3B and/or 1B, preferably 3B, as there are a lot of 1B blowouts you can give a chance to, less so at 3B. Ergo sum A-Rod. :^)

BawLa, you are preaching to the choir, I've been writing about the Giants stealth rebuild for a while now, because I got tired of hearing how we don't have a productive farm system and that we have such an old team.

About Cabrera, you have to remember that teams control their players for 6 years - 3 cheaply, 3 relatively cheaply via arbitration - before they can go free agent. Depending on whether his first season counted enough days or not (don't know how exactly that works; I used baseball-reference.com for his career stats), Cabrera is a free agent the way I noted above.

And there's no way we get Cabrera for 6 years at about $16M per year, Carlos Lee got that and Cabrera is way better than Lee, if Cabrera only got that much, I would fire his agent. And by the time he really is eligible for free agency, he's looking at $20M per, at least.

About Villalona, the more I hear about him, the more I think he's playing 1B. He's a huge guy already and he's only 16, nearing 17, and now eating good ol' fatty and large portioned American food. That don't bode well for being nimble and fielding the hot corner.

And excuse me, but how is Rowand at $10M a good deal? He's like a younger Randy Winn with a little more power but less speed plus a bit more defense. After his hot April, he is back to Winn-level production. If that is one of our options, I would rather pay A-Rod a mega-contract, I'm tired of getting OK producers at up the middle positions, I want to get someone good on one of the corners.

I think if you want someone good for 2008, A-Rod is the way to go, he'll be 32 next year, and he seems to be going strong. I wouldn't mind a Furcal type of contract where you overpay him in order to get him to sign for less years. He's probably looking for $20M per year for 7-8 years, but maybe we can get him to take 4 years at $25-30M or something.

Jefferson, where do you get that Molina is overproducing? His OPS is basically the same as the past two years, why is that over performing? OPS last three seasons: .782, .786, .787; he's only 1 OPS point above last year's, how is that unsustainable? Particularly since catchers take longer to develop, they start hitting better in their mid-30's, assuming they were good enough to keep playing into their 30's.

About Durham, look at his SF career stats. He has been pretty consistently an 800+ OPS hitter for us at 2B, which typically ranks us #1 or #2 in the NL at 2B, and while he has been injured, he has still logged about 550 plate appearances the past three seasons, that's over 80% of the available plate appearances. As long as we have someone like Frandsen or Aurilia ready to take his spot when his inevitable DL happens, we are covered nicely.

About the outfield, he just said that we are set, not that it is great. Roberts is about average for CF, average CF stats since 2000 is .270/.335/.430/.765 and Roberts the past two seasons is roughly .285/.358/.410/.768, and that's good since we want higher OBP out of our leadoff hitter.

Winn has bounced around .800 OPS the past 6 years, about .295/.350/.445/.795 and the average RF since 2000 is .276/.350/.463/.813 (slightly more for LF, .817 OPS, when Schierholtz plays RF), so he's a little below average but not significantly so.

While it is hoping for too much that Lewis and Schierholtz can hit .813 or .817 OPS for us in the corner OF spots, they have both looked better than Linden has ever has.

That makes it all that much more important that we pick up a great hitter for either 3B and/or 1B, preferably 3B, as there are a lot of 1B blowouts you can give a chance to, less so at 3B. Ergo sum A-Rod. :^)

Thanks for clearing things up ogc. It may be obvious, but I'm kinda new to the whole GM in baseball thing. This is the first year when I actually care about all of that stuff - before, I just watched.

Question: If we traded for Cabrera, could we ink him to a new contract at any time?

I'm okay with A-Rod. I'd prefer someone who wasn't bush-league, but we need a new superstar so I can't be too biased. We could even put him back in his comfort zone at SS.

If we got an A-Rod, of course he would be expensive. But putting him at SS leaves us some extra room at 3B.

Mike Lowell is available. But it would be highly unlikely we could sign both A-Rod and Lowell.

ogc - I'm not suggesting that Rowand will actually command $10M, but that should be the absolute ceiling. I'm thinking closer to $7.5M.

No problem, BawLa. Yes, Cabrera could be inked, as long as he is willing. Sorry, thought you said he was worth $10M. Yeah, I'm OK with A-Rod at SS.

All we need is the right two bats at 1B and 3B.

Yeah.
David Ortiz & Mike Schmidt.

Reality check here. There is no 'stealth rebuild'. The Giants are in last place. They finished 12 games out of first last year, and 7 games behind a weak Padres team the year before. They're 30 games below .500 since they signed Armando Benitez.

Let's remember that when the Giants had a shot at the title, they had great pitching staffs, Bonds was producing 13-15 WARP1, and the rest of the lineup produced 20-22 WARP1.

Winn, Roberts, Shierholtz, Frandsen, Molina and (a re-signed) Vizquel might put up 21 WARP1 in 2008 if they're lucky. That leaves 14 WARP1 from the 1st and 3rd basemen, so if they can pick up David Wright and Carlos Delgado, they'll be contenders. If they end up with Klesko, Aurilia and Feliz, they'll struggle to win 80 games.

When you don't have a couple of star hitters to build around, you can't fill the rest of your lineup with below-average role players and expect to win 90 games.

I wouldn't call them below average role players; I think they are basically average role players.

Let me put it this way, the Giants averaged a below average 4.6 runs last season with:

1) Bonds not at full strength
2) All these players essentially hitting 600 OPS or less for the season (except for maybe a month): Finley, Winn, Feliz, 1B (NiekroBrand), Alfonzo.

That's a majority of starting position players hitting in Neifi territory or worse. Bonds obviously still above average but scuffling by his recent standards, Durham hitting way above average, and Vizquel doing about average.

That's why I thought this year's offense should be better, Roberts and Winn improving CF and RF (overall, Alou blended with Finley/Winn = lousy still I think), Klesko/Aurilia improving 1B, Molina improving C. That makes up for some fall back for Durham and possibly Vizquel (looking at this from a pre-season perspective), particularly with Klesko hopefully hitting like he used to (900+ OPS) and taking 5th spot in lineup, pushing Durham to 3rd. We just haven't had the full lineup healthy until Roberts returned, then we've been facing good pitchers, seems like we have been facing the opposing team's best pitchers every series recently, a perfect storm of sorts.

Looking forward, I think if you are going to take a WARPed view of things :^), then I think you need to look at the big picture and see how much WARP will be generated by the pitching and see the total team WARP generation, and not just the offense. With a (potentially) great rotation and adequate bullpen, most of our future WARP generation will be from our pitching (and perhaps defense if Sabean still focuses on that for position players), less so from hitters.

And I'm not sure how WARP is calculated, but if it assumes DIPS logic into the pitching valuations, then WARP will undervalue the Giants pitching for the forseeable future because a number of them appear to above to keep their BABIP under the "norm", defying DIPS precepts.

And when I was talking stealth rebuild, I was talking about 2005 and 2006, they were not obvious re-build years and yet the pitching rotation was rebuilt totally over that time.

And this year has not been a rebuild - yet. Rebuild is an obviously move to youngsters and selling off of vets. Neither has really happened, injuries have forced the use of a number of youngsters. Once there's a trade of a vet for a prospect or release of a vet to play a young player, then I would agree that they have moved to rebuilding mode. Losing a lot does not mean that they are in a rebuilding mode.

I really struggle to understand what you're getting at sometimes, OGC. Here's last year's lineup:

Bonds 6.0 WARP
Durham 5.0 WARP
Vizquel 4.8 WARP
Winn 4.0 WARP
Alou 3.6 WARP
Feliz 3.1 WARP
Alfonzo 2.8 WARP (Eliezer)
Finley 2.6 WARP
1B 2.2 WARP

Here's this year's lineup:
(w/ BP projections)

Durham 4.6
Winn 4.4
Vizquel 3.7
Roberts 3.4
Feliz 3.0
Aurilia 2.9
Molina 2.5
[Frandsen 3.2]
[Schierholtz 3.4]
[Lewis 3.2]

Nobody's spectacularly underperforming. Most of these guys would struggle to hit 4.0 WARP in a good year. You don't win the division with guys like that.

Of course I took pitching into account - I credited it with being as good as the 2002 staff. There's no DIPS involved either - what you see is what you get.

I think what it comes down to is this: you think the Giants have been doing well the last few years. Their record says otherwise.

You think Brian Sabean is doing a bangup job. Everybody else thinks he's going to get shitcanned at the end of the season.