When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

06.11.2007
What Rough Beast?

What’s to say after this weekend?

Roadkill_pictures_04

Let’s start a different way: eight games back.

That’s not so distant, is it? The pitching staff could reel off a string of brilliant performances and the team could win 12 of 14, or 18 of 24, to get back in the race… except that the offense is so bad that brilliant pitching isn’t helping one bit. Just ask Matt Cain and Matt Morris. What indications are there that the current crew will start scoring more runs?

Barry Bonds gets healthier?

Bengie Molina continues to hit well while playing every single day?

Dave Roberts becomes a one-man offense ignition?

Dan Ortmeier becomes the next Grady Sizemore?

Pedro Feliz suddenly gains plate discipline and hits to the opposite field? (Please don’t tell me about his home run in Arizona. I saw it, and I’ve seen Feliz hit the occasional line drive the other way, prompting us all to say, “Maybe he’s starting to learn.” He never, ever turns a corner.)

Even if the Giants turned it around with the current crew — hey, stranger things have happened — they would have to pass four teams, two of which, the Dodgers and D-Backs, are so loaded with young talent they have the trading means to bulk up big-time for the stretch run.

I’m all for optimism in April and May, but we’re in the phase of the season when teams take stock of what they have. Or what they haven’t.  

Conventional wisdom says Brian Sabean’s biggest crime in his tenure is the Pierzynski/Nathan trade, but there’s a stealth nominee: his failure to trade Jason Schmidt and other veterans at the deadline last year. Schmidt could have fetched a good prospect or two, certainly someone more promising than a high-school star in the supplemental round of this year’s draft. At the time, word was teams weren’t offering enough in return. In hindsight, the proper answer should have been: It doesn’t matter. Let’s trade. 

A year later, the pitching staff is well on its way to rebirth. The rest of the team needs a year or two of extreme makeover. Sabean missed his first chance last year to begin the process; let’s see if this year he understands the hour has come round at last. Omar Vizquel, Pedro Feliz, Rich Aurilia, Ray Durham, Ryan Klesko, Randy Winn, Matt Morris: put them on the block and see what happens. If Sabean, either acting on his own or on management’s orders, refuses to trade at least a couple of these veterans for prospects in the next two months, I will declare him once and for all derelict of duty.

***

SMALL PRINT UPDATE: Lots of roster moves. Lewis, Alfonzo and Ortiz on the DL. Roberts, Guillermo Rodriguez and Sanchez up to the bigs.



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[June 11, 2007 12:59 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Lars said

Gotta agree with your take. I'd be ok with being sellers at his point. The names you lksted are the right ones, imo. As much as it would pain me to raise the white flag in June, it think it is a neccesary evil.

[June 11, 2007 1:08 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Obig said


yes, YES, HELLYES. . . As soon as somebody feels in need of a ss, we should send them Omar. I've heard the arguement about "who will play ss? Not Frandsen." But I say "who cares" if we win 72 games or 64? Omar shouldn't be on the team next year so goodbye. I actually think Pedro could fetch something decent since his numbers look ok and as you say, "Maybe he’s starting to learn.” He never, ever turns a corner." We know that but someone else will believe they can get him to turn the corner. Richie, what's he doing on this team in '07, Aurilia should be sent packing. Klesko won't be here next year so take whatever we can get. Durham looked terrible this weekend and I felt any down & in offspeed pitch, 8 inches of the plate could get him out unless you wanted to throw a 90 mph fastball right by him. Trade MORRIS NOW. He has some real upside in a trade. Do it before reality sets in. People (Sabes) quit worrying about this year. So we'd need at least one OF, a closer, a SS, a 3B and a 1B. Yikes this may take awhile.

[June 11, 2007 1:34 PM]  |  link  |  reply
BawLa said

I'm not going to say I was right. But instead I'm going to point out again how this year is a development year. Even as stellar as our pitching staff is, it is still a develop year for them too. But at least they are on track.

Winn has a no-trade, so we'd have to get him to waive it if we wanted to trade him, right? If we can't get him to waive it then maybe we can trade Roberts.

Morris should go nowhere. He is teaching the kids so much, and I think he's got some more knowledge to spread. Trade him next year. Honestly, did you ever think that Cain would go through an inning pitching less than five fastballs? This is part of the Matt Morris effect.

Klesko is the only real tradeable piece we have. So if we are fetching something decent in return, Klesko has to go. Fine by me.

If we can get prospects for our not-so-tradeable commodities then I'm all for it. Durham, Aurilia, Feliz, Sweeney, Vizquel -- get what you can for 'em.

The kids in our farm system that deserve more of a chance than we gave Lewis and Ortmeier: Scheirholtz, Timpner, De La Rosa, Knoedler, and Figueroa.

I'd much rather see a bunch of kids lose than a bunch of old phogeys lose because at least the kids will be learning and get better. If we can turn one or two kids into everyday players then we have done a good job.

[June 11, 2007 1:37 PM]  |  link  |  reply
BawLa said

I'm not going to say I was right. But instead I'm going to point out again how this year is a development year. Even as stellar as our pitching staff is, it is still a develop year for them too. But at least they are on track.

Winn has a no-trade, so we'd have to get him to waive it if we wanted to trade him, right? If we can't get him to waive it then maybe we can trade Roberts.

Morris should go nowhere. He is teaching the kids so much, and I think he's got some more knowledge to spread. Trade him next year. Honestly, did you ever think that Cain would go through an inning pitching less than five fastballs? This is part of the Matt Morris effect.

Klesko is the only real tradeable piece we have. So if we are fetching something decent in return, Klesko has to go. Fine by me.

If we can get prospects for our not-so-tradeable commodities then I'm all for it. Durham, Aurilia, Feliz, Sweeney, Vizquel -- get what you can for 'em.

The kids in our farm system that deserve more of a chance than we gave Lewis and Ortmeier: Scheirholtz, Timpner, De La Rosa, Knoedler, and Figueroa.

I'd much rather see a bunch of kids lose than a bunch of old phogeys lose because at least the kids will be learning and get better. If we can turn one or two kids into everyday players then we have done a good job.

[June 11, 2007 1:38 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Evan said

Didn't we get the Dodgers' first-rounder AND a supplemental pick for Schmidt? Tim Alderson + Jackson Williams or whichever one it was is a pretty good package; how much better could we have done in a midseason trade? When you consider that holding on to Schmidt kept the team's faint pennant hopes alive, I think Sabean made a smart decision not to move him.

[June 11, 2007 1:57 PM]  |  link  |  reply
pantalones said

Hmmm... that's a good point, Evan.

Also... first place on the morning of July 23rd, and a half-game out on the morning of the 25th. Man, it's tough to go from first place to fire sale in a week, even a really bad week. From all accounts Sabean got there by the end of the week and made some calls, but it remains to be seen if he could have pulled in anything better than Alderson and Williams. It sounds like he was holding out for Milledge from the Mets but couldn't get him.

I thought 2005 was more unusual: we were 45-59 (!!) at the deadline and were still buyers. We didn't have a whole lot to trade (Tomko?), and Winn ended up being much more than a rental, but still... I thought this was odd.

[June 11, 2007 2:14 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Evan said

Yeah, 2005 is Exhibit A in support of the theory that Sabean just doesn't know when it's time to fold your cards and cash out.

Last year, I had the impression that the Mets could have had either Schmidt or Zito if they'd been willing to part with Milledge. Don't you think they must regret not making one of those trades? With one more starting pitcher, they might well be World Series champs today. And Milledge's value has dropped sharply since then.

[June 11, 2007 2:44 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Jefferson said

During the offseason, I told myself that all the veteran signings were acceptable. Part of the reason was that the contracts were short. Another was that the Giants should be able to flip them for prospects should things go south.

Things have gone south, and so far so that I now wonder if any of these veterans are actually tradeable. I love Rich Aurilia, but will any team want to give us anything for him? No one offered Pedro Feliz a dollar in the offseason -- will someone give the Giants an actual prospect for him now?

I think that Molina, Morris, Durham and maybe Vizquel and Klesko are the best candidates for trades as of today, and Durham is iffy due to health. I'd take whatever I could get for the rest of the position players and about half the bullpen.

I understand why Sabean did it this way. It was worth a shot. He's gotta go to Peter Magowan now and tell him it's time to bite the bullet and give the fans real hope for the future. That'll be how you sell tickets in 2008.

[June 11, 2007 3:05 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

>Didn't we get the Dodgers' first-rounder AND a supplemental pick for Schmidt?

According to this site, yes, you're right, Pantalones (you usually are).

So, a 17-y.o. pitcher and a catcher will likely be a backup....or a AAA prospect? When I wrote this post I thought Lastings Milledge was a possibility. Perhaps he wasn't. Let's say Sabes was able to pry Milledge loose. even with his rap album and his injuries this year, he'd still be the top hitting prospect in the Giants system.

[June 11, 2007 3:10 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

Oops! I meant Evan. But Pants is usually right, too.

[June 11, 2007 3:15 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Reeky said

I agree with Jefferson: we're not going to get a lot in return for these vets, except Morris and maybe Molina. And the Giants still have to field an entertaining team -- have you checked KC's or Pittsburgh's attendances lately? Quite a come-down from 3 million butts in the seats. It's reason enough to keep Vizquel -- he will always wow the fans.

[June 11, 2007 3:35 PM]  |  link  |  reply
pantalones said

If Feliz hits one of his hot streaks, I could certainly imagine him having a little trade value. His defense has been excellent by most accounts and metrics. The lack of interest in him in the winter was richly deserved following his .202/.248/.348 second half. He's probably more likely to duplicate that .596 OPS over the next six weeks than he is to get hot, but I wouldn't rule it out.

And maybe if Roberts has a great month, there's a GM out there who will write off his early struggles to injury. I'm not holding my breath here either, but the point is, things can change. Unfortunately, this applies to Morris, Molina, and Klesko, too... their trade value may drop in the near future.

Thanks, Lefty... I'll file this unwarranted praise away for a rainy day.

[June 11, 2007 4:07 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

I can't see the Giants trading Roberts and Molina in the first year of their multi-year contracts. Especially Molina: without him, the G's are totally bereft of catching. Even if he cools down a bit with the bat, his contract is looking very reasonable.

[June 11, 2007 5:45 PM]  |  link  |  reply
pantalones said

Agreed, Lefty. Matt Morris's contract is looking awfully reasonable, too. The problem is... no one wants the unreasonable contracts. If Roberts and Molina could somehow be turned into a productive bat for '08 and beyond (and I doubt that they could, unfortunately), I'd happily take that and the extra $25M over the next two years.

[June 11, 2007 10:01 PM]  |  link  |  reply
BawLa said

Feliz and Vizquel have contracts that end this year. So maybe we can buy them out and trade 'em for some prospects. There might be some teams in contention that don't need offensive production but could use a defensive specialist to shore up their infield. We did it with Benitez so why not? Klesko is semi-marketable too because he's putting up OK numbers.

[June 12, 2007 12:02 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Josh said

That photo at the top of the post hurt me