When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

06.07.2007
Whatsa Matta With Madison?

3 PM UPDATE

Picks are fast and furious now that we’re out of the first round and into the supplemental.

NEXT S.F. PICKS at #51: Charles Culberson, high school shortstop from Georgia. Don’t know much about him, except he can hit a first-pitch fastball from a high school pitcher. Maybe they got him mixed-up with this guy.

….and at #43: Jackson Williams, catcher from the Univ. of Oklahoma. All Big-12. Not very photogenic. Sociology major! No scouting report, no video.

That’s it for the Giants until the fifth round. So: Two well-regarded high-school pitchers, the best high-school baseball player in Mississippi who already has a child, a college catcher and two middle infielders. Glaring omission is obviously a power bat, but the top ones were gone by the time the Giants began their barrage of picks.  

A thought: Wendell Fairley is compared to Carl Crawford. Nick Noonan is compared to Kevin Frandsen or Robby Thompson. Is there a draftee who’s been compared to someone of a different skin color? Is this human nature, a sign of racial insensitivity, or simply acknowledgment that white players play one way and black players another? Discuss. 

***

2:15 PM UPDATE

NEXT S.F. PICK AT #32: Nick Noonan, a high school shortstop from San Diego. Scouts say he may have to move to second base because of his arm, and at the plate, he projects as a top-of-order, good-OBP, light power guy. He seemed to be a favorite of the denizens of the Padres’ blog Ducksnorts.

***

1:45 PM UPDATE

NEXT S.F. PICK AT #29:  Wendell Fairley, a high-school outfielder from Mississippi. BP’s Bryan Smith says: “The Mississippi outfielder has drawn some Carl Crawford comparisons, and he's a really good fit for the San Francisco ballpark.”

In other words, he’s not a power hitter. But in seven years, when Randy Winn and Dave Roberts’s contract extensions finally expire, Fairley could become the Giants starting center fielder.

Goldstein’s comment: “I'm no [sic] officially ending any comments about the Giants and budget constraints. They're in this thing for real now.”

I’m not sure what that means, but the Mississippi Senate is probably thrilled. They officially commended Fairley with a resolution this year to congratulate him for making the Louisville Slugger Preseason All-American team.

***

1:15 PM UPDATE

NEXT PICK at #22: The Giants take another high school pitcher, Timothy Alderson. He has a weird delivery —  a “hilariously quick windup,” according to Elbo, something reminiscent of Manny Aybar. He’s also 6’7”. I like this scouting report comment:

Alderson has plus, plus command. He issued his first walk of the season in this start while striking out 13. Dating back to last year, he's walked nine and struck out 173.

Frustrated yet that the Giants haven’t picked a position player?

***

With the #10 pick, the Giants have selected their first player in the draft: lefty high-school pitcher Madison Bumgarner. Really. I’m not making that up. I think his parents were looking at the wrong side of the baby-name chart.

Here’s how BP’s prospect gurus reacted in their live chat:

Kevin Goldstein (12:17:51 PM PST): Giants kick things off in the double-digits with Madison Bumgarner, the top prep lefty in the draft. He tried to scare some teams away by saying he wants "Kershaw money" -- which is 2.3M, and while it worked for the Braves -- who really wanted him, the Dodgers were will to pay him and now they're scrambling to figure out what HS arm they will take. I don't like Bumgarner here -- the arm slot prevents him from taking advantage of his height, and his breaking ball is slurvy. I might be in the minority here, but I think that's an overdraft.

BSmith (12:21:30 PM PST): I agree with the arm slot questions, the Giants are going to need to raise him up to get a consistent breaking ball. But, it's hard to question the Giants history developing pitchers, so I'll leave it to them with what gave him the lead over the other high school talents.

The hitter the Giants (and many Giants fans) hoped to get a bit later, Beau Mills, has just been drafted #13 by the Indians. The Lunatic Fringe is not going to be happy.

 
Also on the Network:



[June 7, 2007 4:00 PM]  |  link  |  reply
BawLa said

Mills and Heyward were guys that I wanted to see us pick up with the #10, but considering our knack for drafting pitchers, I think this one will work out. He has a mid-90's fastball out of high school -- pretty impressive. He seems like a long term project which is fine by me. Have him develop a slider and a change and this kid could be special in 4-5 years. Maybe sooner, we shall see.

[June 7, 2007 4:24 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

A commenter elsewhere said he'd be disappointed if Bumgarner took longer to reach the majors than Matt Cain. Sorry, but that's ridiculous. Cain is a rare exception and should not be the standard to which all first-round draft picks are compared.

[June 7, 2007 4:47 PM]  |  link  |  reply
BawLa said

Agreed. Cain is a rarity, and even now we must be patient as he continues to develop his curve and change.

Timothy seems like a great pick, even though it is another pitcher. Does anyone else see closer potential in him? I sure do. Incredible K/BB ratio, mid 90's fastball, big frame, pitches better out of stretch and has amazing command of the strikezone.

[June 7, 2007 5:00 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Lars said

Well, there is your position player.

[June 7, 2007 5:18 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Frank said

Lefty, you know more than I, but I see Bumgarner has having little bust risk. He's already J Sanchez, more or less, is he not? If he develops one plus pitch (to go w/ his FB), he is a #4 SP, if he develops one plus and one serviceable, he is a #3 and if he develops two plus off speed pitches, he's a #2. If he has a brain and three plus pitches, he's a #1, n'est pas?

[June 7, 2007 5:25 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

>He's already J Sanchez, more or less, is he not?

I say no. He's 17 or 18 and has only faced high-school competition. Sanchez has excelled at every level except MLB. Bumgarner has a LOOOOOONG way to go til he can match Sanchez's potential. If he can control his FB but only develops a decent breaking pitch, then he's a relief pitcher.

To be a successful starter in the bigs, I think you need at least an above-average breaking pitch to go with good FB control.

[June 7, 2007 5:31 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

>He's already J Sanchez, more or less, is he not?

I say no. He's 17 or 18 and has only faced high-school competition. Sanchez has excelled at every level except MLB. Bumgarner has a LOOOOOONG way to go til he can match Sanchez's potential. If he can control his FB but only develops a decent breaking pitch, then he's a relief pitcher.

To be a successful starter in the bigs, I think you need at least an above-average breaking pitch to go with good FB control.

[June 7, 2007 5:46 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ogc said

Hey, I'm that commenter and I can be disappointed if I want to be. Blogs at 22 paces!!! :^)

People keep on saying he's only got one pitch, but the MLB draft scouting report says this about his changeup: "he doesn't throw it much because he doesn't need to, but he's shown a pretty good feel and command of the change at times, throwing it in the 79-82 mph range." That's compared with a fastball 89-95. That's comparable with Cain's FB in terms of velocity and a good 10+ mph separation.

Given how fast they moved Cain and Sanchez up (comparable lefty in talent, though was older and in college already), and what I noted above about Madison, I think we should be disappointed if he does not rise to the majors in 3-4 years, I don't think that is too "ridiculous". Most prospects take anywhere from 4-6 years to progress to the big show, only the best can do it in 1-2 years. All I am asking for is 3-4 years, a little stretch over what prospects normally do but as the #10 pick, he should be a little better, one would hope.

But as my study showed, only about 20-25% of draft picks in the 10th pick range, turn out to be good players. A third turned out to be useful players (think Brett Tomko, Michael Tucker) and 42-47% never do much in the majors (Ellison, Ransom, Niekro). So perhaps you are right, I was pushing the edge a bit, but, again, most prospects take 4-6 years to develop and I'm asking for a bump to 3-4 years.

Thanks for the reference to BP, $2.3M should be doable, the Giants paid $2.025M last year to Lincecum and HS players normally have more leverage over college players.

[June 7, 2007 5:46 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ogc said

Hey, I'm that commenter and I can be disappointed if I want to be. Blogs at 24 paces!!! :^)

People keep on saying he's only got one pitch, but the MLB draft scouting report says this about his changeup: "he doesn't throw it much because he doesn't need to, but he's shown a pretty good feel and command of the change at times, throwing it in the 79-82 mph range." That's compared with a fastball 89-95. That's comparable with Cain's FB in terms of velocity and a good 10+ mph separation.

Given how fast they moved Cain and Sanchez up (comparable lefty in talent, though was older and in college already), and what I noted above about Madison, I think we should be disappointed if he does not rise to the majors in 3-4 years, I don't think that is too "ridiculous". Most prospects take anywhere from 4-6 years to progress to the big show, only the best can do it in 1-2 years. All I am asking for is 3-4 years, a little stretch over what prospects normally do but as the #10 pick, he should be a little better, one would hope.

But as my study showed, only about 20-25% of draft picks in the 10th pick range, turn out to be good players. A third turned out to be useful players (think Brett Tomko, Michael Tucker) and 42-47% never do much in the majors (Ellison, Ransom, Niekro). So perhaps you are right, I was pushing the edge a bit, but, again, most prospects take 4-6 years to develop and I'm asking for a bump to 3-4 years.

Thanks for the reference to BP, $2.3M should be doable, the Giants paid $2.025M last year to Lincecum and HS players normally have more leverage over college players.

[June 7, 2007 5:46 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ogc said

Hey, I'm that commenter and I can be disappointed if I want to be. Blogs at 24 paces!!! :^)

People keep on saying he's only got one pitch, but the MLB draft scouting report says this about his changeup: "he doesn't throw it much because he doesn't need to, but he's shown a pretty good feel and command of the change at times, throwing it in the 79-82 mph range." That's compared with a fastball 89-95. That's comparable with Cain's FB in terms of velocity and a good 10+ mph separation.

Given how fast they moved Cain and Sanchez up (comparable lefty in talent, though was older and in college already), and what I noted above about Madison, I think we should be disappointed if he does not rise to the majors in 3-4 years, I don't think that is too "ridiculous". Most prospects take anywhere from 4-6 years to progress to the big show, only the best can do it in 1-2 years. All I am asking for is 3-4 years, a little stretch over what prospects normally do but as the #10 pick, he should be a little better, one would hope.

But as my study showed, only about 20-25% of draft picks in the 10th pick range, turn out to be good players. A third turned out to be useful players (think Brett Tomko, Michael Tucker) and 42-47% never do much in the majors (Ellison, Ransom, Niekro). So perhaps you are right, I was pushing the edge a bit, but, again, most prospects take 4-6 years to develop and I'm asking for a bump to 3-4 years.

Thanks for the reference to BP, $2.3M should be doable, the Giants paid $2.025M last year to Lincecum and HS players normally have more leverage over college players.

[June 7, 2007 6:04 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

Whoa, Martin, you're a triple-posting threat. That seems to happen a lot -- I think it's our slow comment-posting system. Sorry.

To your point, though: how many pitchers debut at the age of 20, as Cain did? You should set your expectations a little more sensibly, as your own statistics suggest. We should be ecstatic if Bumgarner becomes a good player (20-25% chance). and for him to be a good player in the majors at the atge of 20 -- two or three years from now -- is totally unrealistic. I hope it happens, but I won't be disappointed if it doesn't.

[June 7, 2007 6:17 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ogc said

oops, did I do that?

I blame the lousy software you have at this new site!

[June 7, 2007 6:19 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

It has its problems, doesn't it. Apologies.

[June 7, 2007 7:49 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ogc said

Oh, I was just teasing, I was just a bit impatient with my clicking. A bit...

Blogger allows me to delete comments, feel free to delete two of them if you can do that.

[June 7, 2007 9:14 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Boof said

Am I missing something here or do the Giants, as an organization, need hitters????????

WTF is the deal with drafting 2 pitchers in the 1st round then? Sabean has to go.

[June 8, 2007 5:23 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Frank said

Lefty, we're unable to discuss your topic - that is why Kendall Jackson (the soc major) was drafted.