Hmmm... check the math again, Lefty. I think your first subtotal is off by over $14M. (I agree with the contract numbers, but I think they add up to $62.2M.)

On the other side, I think we still owe Moises $2M. My number for Barry next year is $10.8M (5.8 for this year, 5 from his old contract, not including incentives or interest, but it's tough to tell.) And maybe Hennessey will be a "super two", although I don't have a great grasp on that concept.

Good point. We're screwed.

More and more teams are getting a clue and extending their stars' contracts before they hit free agency. Even if the Giants had a lot of spare cash lying around, I think it would be tough to plug the holes that way.

I'm afraid the key is going to be trading one of the young starting pitchers this offseason.

Damn, I'm not sure how that happened. I blame Windows calc.exe. Going by the numbers up there, it's $61.2 M for the subtotal and $70.8 with the deferred/buyout money. I'll add Alou, so that's $72.8. Is the $5.8 M deferred from Bonds this year payable in '08? I never saw that specified. If it is, bump it to $78.6 before the min/arb guys.

A few more notes: I think Cots has Cain's salary wrong... it's $1.7M. And it's one thing for the Giants to fully pay the salary of the retired Matheny in 2007, but paying to buy out his 2008 contract seems ridiculous to me. Still, it wouldn't surprise me if they were on the hook for that.

With that and the rest of your assumptions (10 veterans, 2 arb relievers, 13 minimum contracts), I get to $86.3M. Maybe they'll bump the payroll to, say, $100M, which isn't a lot of wiggle room given the pending holes at shortstop and corner infielder and (most importantly) the middle of the lineup.

Sabean's preferred method for filling a bunch of holes with $14M is to sign five guys to contracts averaging $6-8M per year, and then heavily backload them and rig them with deferrals to fit the budget. It's a legit strategy when you're going "all in" for one last run at a title, but it has to stop, if only for a year or two.

Here's a fairly conservative scenario: the Giants get to $100M by signing three free agents to backloaded deals: one will make $3.5M, one will make $4.4M, and one will make $7M. Assuming these deals bump up to $4.5M, $6M and $8.5M in 2009 and they exercise Morris' option, you have the following veteran hitters under contract for 2009: Molina, Winn, Roberts, and two or three of these unspectacular free agents. This would make the 2009 payroll (with the same assumptions Lefty made for 2008) a touch over $90M already, impressively perpetuating high-priced mediocrity.

We just need a two-year break to let the pile of backloaded money flatten out a bit. Trade a couple of veterans, take a chance in a Rule V draft, watch the waiver wire like a hawk. By 2010, this process may turn up a decent bat or two, the farm system may cough up a surprise hitter, and you'll have plenty of money to throw at impact free agents. And we'll still have that pitching base of Cain/Lincecum/Zito/Lowry.

Pantalones-- I'm not sure if this was your point or not, but that's exactly why you DON'T sign any mediocre free agents. You just perpetuate the cycle of backloading and continue to putoff rectifying the pay structure. Instead, let the payroll even out and let some of these AA and AAA guys get some playing time at the major league level.

The Giants should be able to pick up a very good offensive prospect with Morris, and their other shot at landing a good offensive player is by dealing Lowry in the offseason.

The only way the Giants should spend is if it on a relatively young player who is at or near his peak and the deal is not backloaded. This will be more feasible if they can move Morris, Durham, and Winn and get rid of that finanical burden (25M in all).

Yeah, that was my point, Cyrus. The three mediocre free agent scenario was a prediction and not a recommendation.

It's not easy to do when you're trying to hold on to your season ticket base, but it wouldn't bother me if they sat this year's free agent market out completely, at least in terms of multi-year deals.

Lefty,

It is my understanding that Barry Bonds' $5.8M of base salary and $4.2M of Bonuses in his 2007 contract are both to be paid in 2008. I can't find the link, but I do remember reading this.

That said, I don't think any of this money of any other players defered money has an impact on the Giants salary budget for 2008. This money is treated as debt just like debt service on the ballpark and is handled in a seperate budget. Yes, it still has to be paid obviously, but I think the Giants financial structure supports both paying these debt services and seperately having a $95M budget for the players that are on the roster in 2008.

Another minor point. Again, I could not find the link, but I remember reading that Cain's $1M signing bonus is payable in 2008.

Yes, my recollection (of course, I can't remember where or when, which is exactly why you should have an age limit for your site), is also that deferred payments go into another column and are not part of the years 'payroll budget.' See, it's pretty easy to calculate, ya get a pie and take a sqaure root and then double down... oh, never mind

Thanks for the suggestions/corrections.

Whether deferred $ and bonuses are considered payroll or not, it's still money paid to players in that calendar year. So I'll leave it as-is.

If you guys can find the link to the info re. Bonds' payments in '08, please post.

I'm not sure what the new collective agreement says, but the old one required that deferred payments be paid prior to the actualy payment, kind of like a Christmas plan (or mortgage) so that the player's deferred payment isn't at risk if there's ever a team bankrupcy.

So by the year of the due date, much of the deferred payment has already been placed into an escrow account for the player. The only amount left would be the difference in present value (not sure what the discount rate used) for the amount between last year and this year.

Of course, it varies by the circumstance of the specific agreement between the team and the player, for example, most do not include interest on top of the deferred payment, but A-Rod, Mr. Moneybags himself, gets interest on his deferred payments.

So you need to reduce the payroll for the deferred amounts due 2008.

Also, I think the Giants management has been quoting $85M as the payroll for the few years before, then raised it to $95M this year with the addition of Zito. They also noted that this was the new level of spending going forward. MLB.com has been very profitable, plus there's no more annual drain funding the running of the Expos. And the big ticket jumps this year for season ticket holders after their guaranteed lower priced tickets contract was over (prices were kept about the same for 7 years instead of rising a lot).

Also, perhaps it was that great interview here at El Lefty Malo with Andy Baggerly or one of his columns (or was it Henry Schulman of the Chron?), but it was recently (last offseason I think) noted that the payroll for this year does not include any amount for deferred payments promised to be paid in this year, it was a "separate budget line item" or something like that.

So you should only count Matheny's buyout amount for 2008, none of the deferred payments for previous years will show up in 2008's payroll, at least for the amounts due in 2008.

Bonds deferred payment for 2007 could require funding in 2008, depending on when it is due to be paid and what the new CBA says about when to fund the escrow account for that payment.

In any case, even without the deferred payments, it does not look like we will be getting A-Rod (as I was hoping) without another boost in our payroll in 2008 or a trade of one of our big money players that we owe for 2008, like Morris or Durham.

Plus I recently read that Mr. Moneybags of Anaheim is licking his chops over A-Rod, and I don't see how the Giants can outbid a billionaire for A-Rod's services.

Any SS worth signing during the off-season, besides A-Rod? We could play Frandsen at 3B, Aurilia stays at 1B, or perhaps is utility if we re-sign Klesko. That leaves our OF prospects fighting over LF or perhaps RF, since Nate plays there mainly.

Or we might end up with Aurilia at SS, I guess that's a possibility too.

I can't imagine a whole year of Aurilia at SS. If we don't get anyone for SS, I would think Ochoa or Figueroa would get a shot.