When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

07.06.2007
Always Look on the Right Side of Life

 

If as expected Fred Lewis and Nate Schierholtz are two pieces of the future Giant puzzle, the team has a problem. It may not be a whale of a problem, but unless said youngsters learn to hit major-league left-handed pitching consistently, it's going to be a platoon problem and a power problem.

 

Let's assume that Barry Bonds is gone in 2008. Barring trades, the Giants will have Dave Roberts, Randy Winn, Lewis and Schierholtz in their outfield rotation. Roberts has proven over his career he can't hit lefties. So what chances do you give Winn, Schierholtz and Lewis against Jeff Francis, Doug Davis, Randy Johnson, et al? 

 

What the Giants need next year is right-handed power; not Pedro Feliz power, whose 20 home runs a year are about as meaningful as Vladimir Putin's commitment to democracy, but a couple legitimate everyday threats. Said threats are not about to emerge full-grown, Venus-like, from the clamshell of the Giants farm system. Unless Eddie Martinez-Esteve gets healthy and moves up the ladder fast, the nearest-term hope is Dan Ortmeier. Yep.

 

Here are a few options to fill the gaps between now and Angel Villalona:

1) Break the bank and sign Alex Rodriguez when he opts out of his contract. This will require at least $20 million a year for five years, perhaps more. A-Rod would move back to shortstop for a couple years, and when he slows down, to third or even first base. He would earn his keep, but between their commitments to A-Rod and Zito, would the Giants have any money left over to mow the outfield grass?

 

2) Get Troy Glaus. He has health problems. But he's only 30, he has a reasonable contract ($12.75 M in '08, $11.25 M player option in '09), and if he stays relatively healthy he'll hit 30+ home runs and get on base a lot. He's a third baseman but he can move to first to protect his back. His health is enough of a question mark, and the Jays are hungry enough for pitching, that the Giants might be able to dangle a non-Cain/Lincecum/Sanchez package. Unfortunately he has a full no-trade clause. Would he waive it to come back to the West Coast?

 

3) Buy low and hope for improvement. With his injuries and his poor strike-zone judgment, Rocco Baldelli may never pan out. But he also may be available for lesser talent. Without trading a top pitcher, could the Giants pry him loose from Tampa Bay? He's currently on the DL, where he seemingly has spent most of his career. But he'll be 26 in September, young enough and talented enough to risk a promising prospect or two. Baldelli for Kevin Correia: Is it a pipe dream? Would you do it? Would the Rays want more? (Along these lines, the Mets also might be willing to part with Lastings Milledge for deadline pitching help. With his injuries, his attitude, and his ho’riffic rap career, Milledge is currently in the "buy low" camp.)

 

4) Bite the bullet and trade a pitching stud. To get a player the caliber of Alex Rios, Miguel Cabrera, Jhonny Peralta, or another young star, the Giants would likely have to cough up Cain or Lincecum.

 

I don't recommend #4, but at a certain point something must be done. The Giants can be patient, but they cannot wait forever for their farm system to produce real hitters. You may squawk at the idea of going after injury-plagued or expensive veterans, but imagine this lineup on Opening Day 2008:

 

CF Roberts

LF Lewis

RF Winn

2B Durham

C Molina

SS Aurilia

1B Niekro

3B Frandsen

P Zito

 

You think the offense is hard to watch now? As they used to say in Brooklyn: wait until next year.



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[July 6, 2007 3:03 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

I forgot to mention perhaps my favorite upcoming off-season stop-gap veteran signing: Eric Byrnes. He'll play a decent outfield, he'll mash lefties (though this year his splits are oddly reversed), and he might be convinced to play for his hometown team -- the team he grew up rooting for -- at a reasonable price. Problem is, he's making nearly $5 M this year and might command in the neighborhood of 3 yrs/$24 M, which seems the wrong avenue for the Giants.

[July 6, 2007 3:08 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Frank said

I'm all for 1 & 2, definitely not 3.
I don't really know exactly what Glaus' problem with his back is, but he has pretty consistently except for '03 and '04:
yr games
01 161
02 156
03 91
04 58
05 149
06 153

He has missed 20 games already this year. His career BA (254) is as uninspiring as his 359/503 is inspiring.
So, I think there is a way to get Bonds, Rodriguez, Glaus, and Klesko; of these, Rodriguez is the least likely, but I'd still be OK with Bonds, Glaus, Klesko

[July 6, 2007 4:17 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Jefferson said

I agree with your assessment, overall. It's going to be a tough few years unless the Giants do something drastic. The way Bonds is playing, I get the feeling he'll be back next year. He's earning every dollar this year. Even if he falls off quite a bit in '08, he'll still be a superior bat.

If Bonds is back, then we certainly aren't signing A-Rod, unless P-Mag decides to strongarm the partners into blowing the fans away with some big-dollar splashes. Maybe that would be the best we could hope for: a productive Bonds, plus A-Rod, giving the pitching staff enough run support to win 95 games.

[July 6, 2007 4:32 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Tom Clifton said

Here is a thought, why not hire a hitting coach that can actually teach the kids how to hit.

Nate, Fred, and Eddy have been in the organization for at least 3-4 years now. Shouldn't a good coach be able to teach them something in that time?

[July 6, 2007 4:43 PM]  |  link  |  reply
sfgfan said

I agree with Frank in that I think the Giants could get multiple hitters, even if ARod is one of them.

Bonds could probably be signed for less this coming offseason than he did last offseason. This is especially true if his performance begins to trail off from where it is right now after he breaks the record.

Glaus' salary is okay as well, and is probably around the figures Bonds could probably sign for next year. But as Lefty mentions, he has a no trade clause.

Next year will be Zito's last "discount" year, so signing Bonds for one year or acquiring Glaus for a year (or two) may not hurt in the grand scheme of things, as that extra money will go to Zito after next season anyway.

The Giants have also been bitten once by having only one slugger. I don't think it's a stretch at all to think that they'd be willing to stretch the bank a little more if it means they bring in/back two power bats. This is especially true if one of them is the reigning "HR King", and the other is the heir apparent.

[July 6, 2007 4:43 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Evan said

I could be wrong, but I can't see Alex Rodriguez even considering the Giants. SF isn't the big-media market he needs to position himself for life after baseball. Moreover, this is the one city where the hometown fans WOULDN'T be cheering him on as he chased the home run record.

I still think Troy Glaus is the second coming of Mark McGwire. I'd love to see him as our first baseman for the next few years.

Baldelli for Correia is a pipe dream, yeah. I imagine they'll try to parlay Baldelli into a slugging first baseman. The last time we had one of those to trade was 1993.

[July 6, 2007 6:13 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Jonathan Bass said

No more. I personally don't give a rat's a$$ about the HR derby, but the Giants organization does. For Bonds to blow it off to throw a party with Jay-Z, after the organization and its fans orchestrated a thinly veiled ballot stuffing to get him voted in as a starter, is beyond ridiculous. This guy pisses on this organization--the only organization and fanbase on the planet that would tolerate him--at every turn. The Giants don't have a bad team. They have a great rotation and a decent lineup. They lose because no one gives a sh**. And why should they? It's not about winning. It's about money, taking care of the a**hole that brings it in and letting him pi** on everyone and everything else. Sabean desperately wants him out, you can tell. Sabean and Bochy are the only ones accountable for the W-L record. The front office is happy with the money. Sure, they would like to have both, but they are too chickensh*t to do what it takes to get there.

[July 6, 2007 6:21 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Boof said

Assuming that Bonds breaks the record this year, I doubt he is coming back next year. I think management will not feel compelled to bring him back after they've cashed in in the HR record chase. Bonds' future in baseball, whether he is ready to admit this or not, would seem to be as a DH, not an every day player. The big problem is that there are very few teams that want to take him on, at least that was the situation in the last off season. Perhaps those teams didn't want to participate in the media frenzy of the HR record chase and that's what softened the market for him.

In any case, it would be folly to commit the amount of money that he would command for a part time player. Yes, he is producing numbers this year, but the Giants need to rebuild their entire offense and Barry's presence retards that rebuilding process. In order to start that process, Barry has to go.

[July 6, 2007 7:36 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Jonathan Bass said

I really thought the Giants could've signed Bonds for $10 million last season, I was sure Sabean was ready to call Bonds' bluff (remember BB's awkward trip to the winter meetings?) but management apparently thought that would've been "rude." No one wanted to touch Bonds with a ten foot pole. It will be fascinating to see who signs him this offseason. My guess is it will be the Yankees. He could hit 40 home runs at Yankee stadium in 100 games or less as a DH.

[July 6, 2007 7:47 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Zheetos said

>> Moreover, this is the one city where the hometown fans WOULDN'T be cheering him on as he chased the home run record.

Why's that? Simply because he'd likely be dethroning Bonds? It's difficult to compare Bonds and A-Rod because Bonds has family ties to two of the greatest to ever wear a Giants uni whereas A-Rod is more or less a mercenary, but I think he'd be accepted here so long as he puts up the numbers we expect out of him (and doesn't gain the baggage Bonds has carried with him over the years).

[July 6, 2007 8:55 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ogc said

If A-Rod is hitting enough homers to challenge Bonds, the fans will most definitely be cheering.

SF is a very big town in Hollywood circles, lots of filming here, but without all the paparazzi snapping pictures as he goes to certain establishments. ;^)

I wouldn't trade any of the rotation yet. We need to build momentum with our great rotation, I think next year is the year we start harvesting the pitching we got and getting returns on that.

Or if we can trade Morris this year for a package of prospects (doubtful though), then I would be willing to give up the rotation, but not the other guys yet.

Rebuilding is no fun, you have to wait things out as things are rebuilt. You also need patience as teams are not rebuilt on a dime, it is a 3-5 year process, if you are lucky.

[July 6, 2007 11:17 PM]  |  link  |  reply
BawLa said

I don't mind a rebuild as long as it is done right. Either rebuild or retool, but don't half-ass both of 'em.

Glaus is an interesting avenue - if we could swing it. Kevin Millar is basically like Glaus without as much pop, but a great OBP and Righty. And Millar comes cheap. Convincing Millar to leave Baltimore for sunny San Francisco shouldn't be too tough. Pay Millar a little extra for a 1 year contract. I know he is 35, but considering we have Durham for 1 more year, why not?

3B - Glaus
SS - A-Rod
2B - Durham
1B - Millar

Now that infield has some pop. And the average age would somehow be less than this year. Add Rowand to the mix and we can compete next year.

Winn
Rowand
Millar
A-Rod
Glaus
Durham
Molina
Lewis

Something to the tune of - thank you very much.


But that is one of many re-tool avenues. If things don't work out you still need young talent in the minors. That is why we should trade some of what we got for AA and AAA prospects. Especially pitching. Hennessey, Correia, Kline, Morris, along with Klesko, Vizquel, and Feliz could fetch some minor league talent in return. Let our current AAA prospects get some decent playing time for the rest of the year and see if anyone steps up. Either way, selling now could help us end up with even more money to work with in free agency.

[July 7, 2007 12:31 AM]  |  link  |  reply
giantsrainman said

Here is my plan to rebuild our ourfield and make sure we have a balance of righthanded and lefthanded hitting. Two Trades:

1) Trade Barry Bonds and Matt Morris to the Mariners for Adam Jones and Wladimir Balentien to provide young cheap major league ready righthanded hitting outfield power.

2) Trade Ryan Klesko, Pedro Feliz, Randy Winn, and Dave Roberts to the Yankees for Jason Giambi and Melky Cabrera. Melky is the target and Giambi balances the dollars (over three years) and provides the modivation for the Yankees to do the deal. The Yankees would then release Doug Mientkiewicz and Andy Phillips to make room on their roster.
This would then result in a Klesko/Feliz platoon at 1B and a Roberts/Winn platoon in CF for the Yankees allowing Damon to DH full time since he is unlikely to get fully healthy again this year.

With these trades the Giants would then have a six man fight for playing time in the outfield with two lefties (Lewis and Shierholtz) two righties (Jones and Balentien) and two switch hitters (Cabrera and Ortmeier). All six would be young, cheap, major league ready, and good.

Make it so Sabean!

[July 7, 2007 1:02 AM]  |  link  |  reply
johnP said

If 80% of Russians support Putin, then he's 4 times more democratic than our very own G.W. Bad analogy.

[July 7, 2007 5:10 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

JohnP, I don't understand your point. Since when does a politician's approval rating determine his commitment to democracy?

Putin's high rating means most Russians don't mind a leader who disregards the country's democratic infrastructure -- including his dismantling of a free press and suppression of political opposition. Bush/Cheney have made their own power grabs (illegal wiretapping, misleading WMD evidence, etc), and (finally) the American people are outraged.

[July 7, 2007 6:24 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Boof said

Sorry, Rainman, neither of those trades happen. Neither the Yankees or the Mariners are that stupid.

[July 7, 2007 7:05 PM]  |  link  |  reply
giantsrainman said

Boof, they probably will not happen. That said, I see it as smart of both the Yankees and the Mariners if they were to happen. These are trades that help both teams. Your saying they are dumb for the Yankees and Mariners just doesn't make it so.

Barry Bonds and Matt Morris would greatly enhance the Mariners playoff chances this year. In addition, Morris' up to two more years on his contract would help the Mariners in these years as well as his contract is below today's market rates. Further having Bonds for the remainder of 2007 should make it easier for the Mariners to re-sign both Bonds and Ichiro for 2008 (and beyond for Ichiro) because they will both see the commitment to win now.

On the Yankees side, getting rid of Giambi is worth the cost of losing Cabrera in their media dominated market. In addition, the players they get in return would clearly meet their need for more offense from 1B (Klesko and Feliz) in 2008, and better health and speed in the outfield in 2008 and 2009 as well as the remainder of 2007.

The bottom line is that these two trades would be winners for all parties involved.

[July 7, 2007 9:29 PM]  |  link  |  reply
gdog said

Sounds like the only hope the Giants have is to rip off some other team. But the Giants have been the easy mark in trades lately.

Let's face it. The strategy of the current management team has resulted in 1) the farm system being bare; 2) too many dollars are committed to marginal talents. When Sabean gets fired at the end of the year, it'll be a big hole for the new guy to dig out of.

We may very well see that lineup next year, perhaps with a second-tier first baseman and shortstop added to the mix. The Giants will never be a 60-win team because their pitching staff is too good, but they will have just as much trouble cracking .500 as they did the last three years.

[July 8, 2007 1:41 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Anonymous said

There is only meaning of the word Democracy: it's doing what the people want. Your argument is that the Russia people want something stupid. That's fine. But it's still more democratic than in the US - where the government is doing what the mass of the people don't want.

[July 9, 2007 5:33 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

Uh, no. Putin has taken steps to suppress political opposition. I would say that's a clear indication he doesn't have a strong commitment to democracy. And he's dismantled the independent press. It's hard to have a functioning democracy if there are no countervailing voices to the ruling regime.