Wow. Brewers just got pantsed.

Towers is an excellent GM.

I love the trade for the Padres. The Brewers gave up a lot to get a guy that they can only really control for one more year, if I'm reading his contract page right.

And, as you mentioned, Linebrink's peripherials have slipped some. He's given up 9 HR's in just 45 innings, 4 of those HR's came in Petco.

Inman could do very well in Petco and everyone other pitcher Towers picks up seems to be awesome for the Pads.

Also, BP is calling this the "worst trade of the summer" and just awarded Brewers GM Doug Melvin a "Krivsky".

http://baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=459

The Padres are brilliant at finding pitchers out of nowhere and turning them into awesome relievers, so I'd be surprised if Thatcher doesn't end up being just as good as Linebrink.

I think this trade was for Inman.

Thatcher might be something, too, but Inman has the upside.

>just awarded Brewers GM Doug Melvin a "Krivsky"

Whew. At least they didn't call the award a "Sabes."

The Brewers will get two high draft picks for the A-player Linebrink, according to one account I read about. That's potentially a 21-30 pick plus a higher sandwich pick, 35-45.

They should be worth more initially than the two throw ins for sure. Thatcher looks like he'll be a nice reliever, but when you are getting picks up that high in the draft, you are looking for starters and if you pick well, they should be ranked high on your team's prospect list the next year. And if you pick really well, you match Inman's status as the #3 prospect plus get another top 10 prospect with the other pick.

If they achieve the latter one, then the two draft picks will have more trade value than the whole package of Inman et al.

So there is a risk, obviously, particularly since they haven't been particularly successful in selecting starting players in the draft (as I had shown before), but they still conceivably could end up with higher ranked (and valued) prospects with next year's picks that they could trade by the trade deadline of 2009.

Meanwhile, the Padres get some value for Linebrink, who is probably leaving as a free agent. Inman is still young 20, plus his struggles this year is probably just bad luck, his K/BB ratio is good, he has a high K-rate, plus his HR/9 is high but his key HR/Flyball is way above the 10% mean that pitcher regress to, so there's hope that his ERA drops due to a reduction in that. And they have the other two, Thatcher looks like he could be a good reliever in a year or two.

OGC,

Sure the Brew Crew will get a 1st rounder when Linebrink leaves but maybe Towers wanted something more close to ML-ready than a draft pick?

Some think Inman could be in their rotation by 2008 and be serviceable in the back end.

I think anytime you can trade a declining reliever for a 3-5 rotation guy, along with a relief arm who already has a chance to out perform Linebrink (Thatcher) you pull the trigger every time. They are going to immediately stick Thatcher in the pen. In my opinion, the lost draft picks don't matter too much in this trade.

Chris, I don't think that Martin is saying the loss of the 1st round picks will hurt SD. I think what he's trying to say is that the Brewers aren't getting KILLED in the trade as most are saying.

I think that they did give up quite a bit to pick up two draft picks. They sort of gave up two guys who could help their team now (or in the very near future) to pick up two draft picks that may or may not pan out. Basically, the Brewers may have a reason to say it's a "win" for them, in addition to it being a "win" for SD.

It could just be a cost cutting move. Perhaps the Brewers felt that they could unload Thatcher and Inman and take the draft picks that will be ready in the future. Sort of a constant pipeline of young talent.

It's hard to believe that the Brewers couldn't use a 3-5 starter, and a potentially solid relief pitcher, though.

One question for Martin -- according to your own extensive analysis, those low 1-rd. picks are not nearly as valuable as, say, top-10 picks, right?

Isn't it true that two of the three prospects Milwaukee traded are more likely to be productive major leaguers than the two players Melvin picks in the late first/sandwich round?

Thanks sfgfan, I should have put that in there, that the Brewers aren't totally losing value like others are saying (as you said so well :^), as they get a good portion of value back with the picks.

About the players the Padres got, just think Jerome Williams and Billy Sadler (thus far). Yeah, they might pan out, maybe not. But that's OK, in a few months, Linebrink's gone and he's declining to boot, and now they have three shining new prospects to play with. Presumably there is something they like about each player that they think they can develop more than the prospects they would pick up in the draft.

Meanwhile, the Brewers need a reliever now, and if I remember right, Inman's not doing much in his promotion to AA, so he hasn't even mastered AA yet (though only 20 so there's plenty of time), Thatcher is a reliever with incredible stats this year, but was so poor skills-wise that he was ranked very low in BA Top 30 (20's) plus is old for the AA where he dominated (though good he continued good performance in AAA), and Garrison is still in A-ball and doing OK there - Lincecum was shutting down teams at approximately the same age if I got the ages right.

However, the Brew Crew gets two picks for Linebrink, presumably/hopefully. Yes, ELM, the odds of getting a good player is low there, about 11% or so, but with two picks, that raises it to 22% odds.

But none of the three prospects are that particularly good as a starter, good relievers are necessary but not necessarily that valuable as a trading chip always (Reds notwithstanding). So maybe Inman is a middle rotation, that's some value.

Perhaps, like the Giants, the Brewers rate prospects as keepers or not, and maybe the three are their "non-keepers", not expected to be that good (and being a middle rotation guy is not considered good, though valuable) so at least they have a future chance at a good player with the picks, rather than possible, potential OK-ness with the three prospects they gave up.

Plus, if they select college players with those picks, they could possibly catch up with Inman/Thatcher/Garrison's in the majors in a year or two if they pick well/lucky, they would be about the same age as Inman and Garrison in any case. If so, they basically got the same "value" and Thatcher is the cost of the rental of Linebrink, with the added kicker that the two picks might become good as opposed to OK.

Also, Thatcher is coming into some luck this year, 30+ IP and no homers. Based on the mean rate of 10% of flyballs are homers, he should have given up 1.3 homers. As a reliever, probably somebody on base, so that's at least 2.3 runs given up additionally, which addes approximately 1 point to his ERA, raising it to slightly above 3.00.

However, his BABIP is sky high so perhaps they balance out. And he has incredible control, his K/BB is huge throughout his career, even against RHH this season in AAA (small samples though; Sadler...). He's been mainly used as a LOOGY and looking at his splits, it is going to be borderline whether he can be effective pitching against RHP. If he is not, then he's not replacing Linebrink as some say, who could pitch against RHH. He would just be a LOOGY and those are not that valuable.

Now the risk for the Brewers, hence my presumably/hopefully, is that with Linebrink's decline that appears to be easily seen, he might not be signed by another team before the deadline for getting a pick, hence they would have to risk giving him arbitration in order to get the picks (is this how it still works or did this change? I'm using the old CBA's rules here as the PR on the new CBA did not mention any change to this compensation).

But again, 3 prospects that not that hot, 2 young'uns still way down the system and not doing particularly great, 1 much older "prospect" who was still in A-ball at the start of the 2006 season, they get help with their first winning season in, what, 16 years and Linebrink might be worse than before, but he's still doing OK right now, more than the Brewers alternatives right now.

So they took a gamble to try to seal the deal on a title this year, with minimal risk/loss and potentially could come up even or better in certain circumstances, depending on whether they get picks and how they pick.

Oh, and yes, ELM, the three probably are more productive major leaguers than the picks, but most probably are just that, productive major leaguers, whereas there is the small chance of catching lightening with the picks, like Yovani Gallardo, a round 2 pick.

And to finally finish my point :^), it is one of those win-win deals where each side gets something they think is shining and good, SD loses picks but there's something about those three that they prefer to have (bird in the hand?), Brewers get good relief help now, Linebrink was actually pretty good April to sometime in June, but since then has been pretty bad, so hopefully for them he's not like our acquisition of Alvarez in 1997, and hurts their chances, plus they hope to get some picks. Yes, low chances of good, but you can't win without a golden ticket and they could get two if Linebrink is signed.