I came to a depressing realization a few weeks ago, I'll be 31 by the time Zito's contract is over with the Giants.

That'll ruin your day.

63 consecutive scoreless innings. You gotta believe. w00t, n'stuff.

31? Man, that's so over the hill. You should check yourself into a retirement home right now and get it over with.

Well, from 2002, Zito has delivered 9 months of below 3 ERA out of 34; 7 months below 2.52; 5 months below 2.19.

And 4 of the 9 happened in his Cy Young year in 2002, so that's 5 months out of 28 since start of 2003 with below 3 ERA.

But he had a real nice run recently in 2005, ERA of 3.05 in June, 2.51 in July, 2.13 in August, after a 6.60 ERA in April and 3.49 in May.

So it is not out of the realm for a really good month to happen, just unlikely, based on his career results thus far.

But he was really dominant that game, 8 K's, no walks against a hot Cubs team that steamrolled to, what, an 18-2 record or something sick like that around that period. And Milwaukee is a HR park, so that contributed there.

What's interesting, when you look at his monthly results, is that he has been the victim of a lot of "bad luck" career abnormalities.

But first, shockingly, this month his K/9 is nearly a rock solid 9.0 with 20 K's in 21.1 IP. He has not been remotely a strikeout pitcher for many years now. And it was not just the big game against the Cubs, he's been within 1 strikeout of his IP all month.

The last month he struck out enough batters to be over his IP is in 2002, April and May. Last time he was this close to IP was August 2005, 42.1 IP with 39 K, else most months he was at best around 6 strikeouts under IP, usually much more under, at least 10 K's. So his month of July is pretty unusual for him in terms of strikeouts.

Also, over the past two months, he has raised his K/BB to nearly the magic 2.0 you want from starters, while April/May it was bad, below 1.5. Over a season, if your K/BB is 1.6-2.0, like it was for him in June/July, pitchers average around 4.5-4.6 ERA, not the bloated 5.60 and 6.75 Zito has racked up.

Now there was a lot of bad luck stuff happening. First, his BABIP was abnormally high the past two months. For his career, it is .265 but last month it was .293 and thus far this month it was .323. Once they fall to career levels, like they were in April/May with .258/.250, things will go a lot better for him.

Plus, his HR/9 is abnormally high as well, for his career it is slightly under 1.0 but May, June, and July were all much higher than 1.0, so there is some bad luck there as well.

Thus it could be just two-three really bad luck months the past few months, he was pitching much better the last two months, more K/9 in July, much better K/BB in June/July.

Speculation, but given that he wanted to radically change his pitching mechanics in spring training, perhaps the Giants have quietly let him do that this season (or maybe he has quietly started implementing them anyway). He was pretty bad in May, but improved in June by reducing his walks, then improved in July by increasing his strikeouts, maybe next he reduces hits and/or homers. Just a thought (hope! :^)

Eh, don't remind me, my wife is licking her chops over the fact that I'll qualify for senior discounts in a few more years; told me I'll be bringing her to that store on Tuesdays (sr. discount day)

I really don't care what Zito's ERA is in September, because we won't be playing in October. But the one thing I do want to see out of Barry is good outings. I want to feel comfortable that he will at least be able to hold up the #3 starting position for years to come. I want to know that the reason he screwed up the first half of the season is because he messed with his mechanics in the spring.

ELM,

In 10 more years I might be able to crack the Giants!

Don't look now but Zito is shitting the bed against the Marlins.

Very interesting post. The comments were also (to coin a phrase from another blog,) "chicken soup for the mind."

I am a life long A's fan. Always have been, always will be. When Zito was with the A's, I rooted for him to win. (Which he did.) When he signed with the Giants, he was welcomed with open arms, and everyone wanted his winning ways to continue. (Which they haven't.)

I have had several people ask me about Zito moving accross the bay, and I have responed with this:

"I wish him well. I hope he succeeds. Except when he pitches against the A's, then I hope he dies like a dog!"

Well, at least half of that prophecy has come true...

Thanks, Larry, but I prefer to think of my blog as chicken soup for the lower intenstine.

" As reader Big O likes to shout when women suddenly bust out the backyard hula hoop: Hoochie mama! (I heard it from a very credible source.)"

TRUE, I cannot or will not deny it and if you think women were'nt injured with the combo of booze and hula hoopin', you'd be badly mistaken. I bet though "your credible source" did not share with you his new nickname coninced by his newphews and niece did he? Bro is now GrandMAMAMAMA (can he drive any slower?).
On a sidenote I've just returned from 6 days of camping in the San Juan Islands and am always amazed at the beauty of this archipelago. There's nothing like kayaking among the seals and dolphins without any other human in sight on h20 like glass and as beautiful sunset as one can imagine. Catching 17 trout, with none smaller than 14 inches (only keeping two to eat one night)didn't hurt either.

" As reader Big O likes to shout when women suddenly bust out the backyard hula hoop: Hoochie mama! (I heard it from a very credible source.)"

TRUE, I cannot or will not deny it and if you think women were'nt injured with the combo of booze and hula hoopin', you'd be badly mistaken. I bet though "your credible source" did not share with you his new nickname coninced by his newphews and niece did he? Bro is now GrandMAMAMAMA (can he drive any slower?).
On a sidenote I've just returned from 6 days of camping in the San Juan Islands and am always amazed at the beauty of this archipelago. There's nothing like kayaking among the seals and dolphins without any other human in sight on h20 like glass and as beautiful sunset as one can imagine. Catching 17 trout, with none smaller than 14 inches (only keeping two to eat one night)didn't hurt either.

sorry for the double post. My bad (it's my first latte in several days).

Actually, I have a different credible source, one with a sterling -- or perhaps a better phrase is "highly polished" -- journalism pedigree.

Re. the San Juans: they're at the top of my list of places to visit before I get old and creaky. Or older and creakier.