When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

07.03.2007
Home DePo

Spsabes Is Brian Sabean gone after this year? Over the winter Peter Magowan didn’t give the Giant GM a full vote of confidence, not by a long shot, and the team’s performance so far doesn’t bode well.

Henry Schulman in today’s Chron suggests Sabean’s fate could hang on his ability to make nifty trades before the deadline: The team's record suggests Sabean is closer to the door now than he was in spring training, but should the Giants choose to rebuild, he will have an opportunity to attempt a comeback on the trading floor and raise his prospects for a new contract of his own.”

Key phrase: “Should the Giants choose to rebuild,” as if it’s not entirely in Sabean’s hands. Schulman writes in the same article that the Zito contract was “not his call” — news to me — which makes me wonder how much authority Sabes has to make drastic changes. No GM has carte blanche, of course, but if the decision came from above to overpay Zito at a time when starting pitching was the team’s lowest priority, I wonder if Sabean’s continuing tenure with the iGnats* might not just be the result of impatient ownership but also have something to do with his own desires, i.e., to get the fudge outta Dodge and start over with a less meddlesome and image-obsessed ownership. 

He may stay, he may go. He may receive the Swinging Door Medal (ie, don’t let it hit your ass on the way out), he may make his own call. Whatever the outcome, in the next three months we’ll be playing a lot of Who’s Next — not the overrated Who album, but the game in which we read tea leaves about Sabean’s possible replacement.

DePodesta

Our first installment comes courtesy of The Hardball Times, in which the merits of Paul DePodesta, former Dodger GM and Southland whipping boy, were reconsidered last week. Down there, they hated him because he traded Paul LoDuca. Up here, we hated him because he was a Dodger, nuff said, but in hindsight we should be lucky the L.A. owners, the McCourts, canned his Moneyball ass, if this Hardball Times article is to be believed. (Thanks to reader Andrew for the heads-up.)

In other words, he did a damn fine job there, and he could be exactly what the Giants need. Read the THT article and discuss.

* The iGnats are what you get when you combine a baseball team’s fetish for high-tech bullshit and an inability to score more runs than a swarm of tiny harmless insects.



Also on the Network:



[July 3, 2007 12:44 PM]  |  link  |  reply
richard said

I say can sabean now, bring in depodesta and let him handle the deadline deals.

[July 3, 2007 1:11 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Jonathan Bass said

I love the idea of getting Depo on his secound tour. I don't think he was ready the first time around. I remember reading an article titled "Depo's World" in ESPN or SI with a photo of him with his shoes off, kicking it on a couch in the Dodgers front office with a smirk on his face and thinking, "he's not going to make it there." Now he'll be humbler, hungrier and still the most promising protege of the best GM in baseball.

I'm still 50/50 on Sabean but the fact is that we need more of an equalizer at GM. Sabean hasn't fleeced anyone in years and he's been fleeced multiple times in the past few years. I love the idea of Depo presiding over our mini-rebuild.

[July 3, 2007 1:34 PM]  |  link  |  reply
BawLa said

I'm with Johnathan - 50/50. I didn't even think Sabean was our biggest concern right now, but I guess because we are rebuilding that we are either going one way or another.

It is very surprising to hear that Zito was not Sabean's choice. And all the people that dog Sabean for the Accardo - Chulk/Hillenbrand trade were just using leftover bitterness from the Pierzinsky debocle.

And for as bad as the team is doing this year, you can't fault Sabean for trying to bring in talent. A handful of guys are hitting way below their career averages. Not his fault.

When it comes down to it though, Sabean hasn't been the best at building our minor league talent, with the exception of pitching, and that should fall squarely on him. Since we are rebuilding, I wouldn't mind seeing us clean house a little bit, and bring in someone with a different perspective.

For all the lack of excitement in general, July should be a telling month of where our organization is heading.

[July 3, 2007 2:01 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Paul R. said

Who's Next...overrated? That might be the most offensive thing I've ever read on this site. Not as offensive as Roger Daltrey's bad cameo appearances on CSI, but offensive nonetheless.

Hey, I guess you could argue that "the song is over" if the title is "The Giants' Season." Ugh, never mind.

I would personally love to give Depo a shot. When he was hired as the Dodger GM in 2004, I was terrified. Even though his team sucked in 2005 (a lot of that was due to injury), he put that franchise's future on a winning course and their 2006 playoff berth was made possible mostly by his moves.

[July 3, 2007 2:24 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Frank said

I don't claim to be a geru or privy to inside information, but I do think people misunderstand Sabean's changing strategy and, also, fail to see the recent shift in strategy.
Going back to '03, '04, I think, money was tight and Sabean was on a tight budget. As a consequence he made the decision to forfeit a draft pick, and use the projected bonus money on the major league club. I don't have a problem with that choice.
People say he has done nothing with the minor league system, but I think they ignore waht has been going on recently. In my uninformed opinion, Sabean concluded that 1) it was too risky and difficult to try to ID and draft and develop power hitters; 2) pitching is at least half of the game, 3) given the way ATT plays and the other large ball parks in the NLW, pithcing, defesne, speed (especially in the middle of the diamond and in RF) was the way to go and more likely to produce results thru the minor league system. This latter is relatively new, being implemented in approx '05. The results of that focused strategy, altho 2-3 years away from the MLB team are pretty evident in the minors.
Thus, Sabean's strategy is to try to fill 20-22 MLB roster spots from within the system (draft/minors): SP, RP (12/25), C, 2b, SS, CF, RF, bench. This means he only has to trade/sign FAs for 3 or 4 (granted, very important) slots.
I am a little more than 50-50 on Sabes. The one thing I think he is most susceptible to criticism for is the apparant lack of a coherent minor league startegy, as far as teaching/developing both pitchers and hitters. I would like to see more emphasis on throwing strikes (and fewer BBs) for pitchers. I would like to see a more disciplined, work the count, hit the ball where it's pitched approach.
Finally, while I see BEane as installing this approach in Oakland, I don't think comparing Oakland to SF is realistic. Finally, if we really thought Sabean's firing would bring a BEane protegy, a DePodesta, I'd be more supportive of the idea. But I am inclined to think that Magowan would bring in the next Sabean, a guy from a major program with 'baseball' knowledge... I have never heard Magowan say anything remotely suggesting he was a moneyball type supporter - or even aware of the philosophy.

[July 3, 2007 2:28 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Frank said

Just to show how brilliant we all are - or at least I am, last Winter, I was hoping for Manny Acta, Ron Washington - in that order. And I was a little disappointed in Bochy.
I think history has shown me to be a fool, as Acta has been not at all inspiring in D.C. and Washington has been a rather large disappointment in Tex. Meanwhile, Bochy, both in ST and during the regular season has been far better than I'd thought he would be. So, best you not leave the hiring of a GM to me.

[July 3, 2007 2:46 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

>Who's Next...overrated? That might be the most offensive thing I've ever read on this site.

I knew that would chap some hides. There are great songs on it, but there are also stinkers ("Going Mobile" the worst of the lot, "My Wife" and "Bargain" close behind). Good album, but one of the best ever? Not even close. I'll take Quadrophenia over Who's Next any day of the week.

[July 3, 2007 2:58 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Boof said

ELM, we are usually pretty close in our opinions, but I have to disgree with your assessment of Who's Next. This album was a tour de force and was one of the best albums of all time. You point to one album where every song is a complete masterpiece and I will take back my opinion. No album is like that. Now I'm not saying that all songs on Who's Next are masterpieces, but as a whole, the album is incredibly strong and has stood the test of time.

[July 3, 2007 3:01 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Boof said

Oh, and by the way, FIRE.SABEAN.NOW. Now, if there was some way we could also fire Magowan, then we'd really have something.

[July 3, 2007 3:23 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Paul R. said

You point to one album where every song is a complete masterpiece and I will take back my opinion.

Pink Floyd, Dark Side of the Moon.

[July 3, 2007 4:05 PM]  |  link  |  reply
the gene hackman said

1. the Brandenburg concerti are all complete masterpieces, if that counts. but i'm not sure i can't think of ANY album, even by the beatles, where I love every song enough to call it a masterpiece

And but so...

2. Revolver/Sgt Pepper

3. Revival (Gillian Welch)

4. Creek drank the cradle (Iron and Wine)

5. what paul said

[July 3, 2007 4:26 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

>You point to one album where every song is a complete masterpiece and I will take back my opinion.

That's an impossible standard, but it's quite possible to find albums that from start to finish are excellent or unique or completely fresh and original for their time, and Who's Next isn't one of them. Just off the top of my head: Exile on Main St., PJ Harvey's Rid of Me, Nirvana's Nevermind, Quadrophenia, Dark Side of the moon (as noted above), OK Computer, Abbey Road, perhaps the White Album and Revolver (I'm not as big a Sgt. Pepper's Fan), Car Wheels on a Gravel Road... Who's Next is good, but it's not one of the best of all time.

[July 3, 2007 4:41 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Zheetos said

>>And for as bad as the team is doing this year, you can't fault Sabean for trying to bring in talent. A handful of guys are hitting way below their career averages. Not his fault.

The regulars that are hitting below their career averages are all 35 or older. Sabes must be disillusioned by Bonds -- most players begin the decline at that age, if not earlier. Considering that and the home ballpark, it should be no surprise that Aurilia, Roberts, Sweeney and Vizquel are underperforming. Durham's numbers, however, do surprise me -- a career year at the age of 34 (last year) from a second baseman is so strange it just makes you think he's the kind of guy who will be awesome until he's 43 (i.e., a roider).

[July 3, 2007 4:42 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Zheetos said

>>And for as bad as the team is doing this year, you can't fault Sabean for trying to bring in talent. A handful of guys are hitting way below their career averages. Not his fault.

The regulars that are hitting below their career averages are all 35 or older. Sabes must be disillusioned by Bonds -- most players begin the decline at that age, if not earlier. Considering that and the home ballpark, it should be no surprise that Aurilia, Roberts, Sweeney and Vizquel are "under-performing". Durham's numbers, however, do surprise me -- a career year at the age of 34 (last year) from a second baseman is so strange it just makes you think he's the kind of guy who will be awesome until he's 43 (i.e., a roider).

[July 3, 2007 5:09 PM]  |  link  |  reply
pantalones said

"Criticize Sabean's inability to develop position players if you will, but it was not his fault that Carlos Lee, Alfonso Soriano, Juan Pierre and Gary Matthews Jr. all signed elsewhere. Also, $126 million for Barry Zito was not his call, and Barry Bonds would not be back in San Francisco for $20 million if Lee or Soriano had chosen to come here..."

Et tu, Schulman?

This "Bonds contract as albatross that is hurting the team and keeping them from signing quality players" conventional wisdom is just so maddeningly wrong.

Player, 2007 VORP, total base salary of deal
--
Bonds, 40.6, $15.8M
Soriano, 25.4, $136M
Lee, 19.5, $100M
Matthews: 17.3, $50M
Pierre: 2.2, $44M

We are paying the best hitter in baseball (or the fourth best once you take into account his reduced playing time) $15M this year, and we're paying the rest of the 35-45 team $80M. Yet the "Sabean's hands have always been tied by Bonds" mantra appears in the media nearly every day.

[July 3, 2007 5:12 PM]  |  link  |  reply
bigO said

Born To Run - Bruuuuuuuce

[July 3, 2007 5:44 PM]  |  link  |  reply
gdog said

I don't think there's a GM who gets more excuses made from him than Sabean. Everyone just *assumed* that he knew what he was doing. Well, like the mutual fund industry, past performance is no indicator of future success.

Some of his so-called strategies - like depending on old players not suddenly getting old - or not being able to find room in his $85 million budget for a third-rate free agent and his first round draft - were obviously wrong. The results are indisputable: three straight losing seasons.

And now it's all that meddlesome Larry Baer's fault.

The only solace I take from this is that people seem to realize that after destroying the team with his own incompetence, Sabean shouldn't be given the opportunity to stay on a few more years and "rebuild".

[July 3, 2007 6:06 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

Good point, Pants. If Bonds keeps up his current rate of production, his work combined with his draw at the gate is probably well worth the $20 M the Giants will pay him.

>Born To Run - Bruuuuuuuce

And Nebraska, too!

[July 3, 2007 7:00 PM]  |  link  |  reply
bigO said

and

Darkness on the Edge of Town

and

The River

and

Tunnel of Love

and

The Ghost of Tom Joad

and

The Rising

and

Devils and Dust

and

well you get the idea and I doubt you've scrolled down this far anyway.

[July 3, 2007 10:21 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ogc said

I love Paul McCartney's Flaming Pie and Chaos and Creation in the Backyard; Greenday's Nimrod; The Apples In Stereo's Tone Soul Evolution; Beck's Odelay; World Party's Egptology; Beatles Revolver, Rubber Soul, Hard Days Night, Meet the Beatles, Abbey Road.

How can anyone chose the Beatle's White Album as good first to last? Is Revolution #9 really that listenable to you? "Number 9, number 9, number 9, number 9..."

People knock Sabean for not developing position players but conveniently forget about how good the pitching staff he has put together. Almost the whole pitching staff is homegrown and they have been pretty darn good too. I would say that Sabean would compare favorably with most other GMs in terms of quality players on the roster, period, not just position players.

I say Sabean deserves to see how his rebuild turns out. If you want to put pressure on him, hire DePo as his right hand man and give Sabean two years. I think Sabean will get an extension of 2-3 years from McGowan and piss off a lot of people.

[July 4, 2007 1:18 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Frank said

I know fans are impatient and the buck has to stop somewhere when things are going bad, but I fail to see how Sabean, realistically, gets the blame for '05 and '06. Not only did Bonds go down - pretty unexpected, wouldn't you say? (routine knee surgery develops serious infection)- but Alou played less than half a season, Matheney, and on and on. Just put Bonds on the field, recovered from routine surgery, as expected, and the Gs - or iGs - post winning seasons in both '05 and '06.

[July 4, 2007 1:57 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Boof said

"I know fans are impatient and the buck has to stop somewhere when things are going bad, but I fail to see how Sabean, realistically, gets the blame for '05 and '06."


He gets the blame because he is the one responsible for assembling the team players on the field who have stunk it up for last few years and have a realtively bleak future ahead of them. He signed them. He went after aged, broken down players time & time again. I call BS on the so-called "stealth rebuild." There is no such thing. Yes, he has assembled some young pitchers, but they are less than half the team. Where is the rest of the future? It doesn't exist and the blame for that rests solely on Sabean. Just why should he get more time to repeat the same mistakes over & over again?

[July 4, 2007 10:22 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Larry said

Outside of C, LF, and 1b, you have a collection of 'hitters' who don't hit for AVG, can't get on base, and have no power.

Three of the five are signed thru next year.

A poorly built roster of truly historic proportions.


[July 4, 2007 4:47 PM]  |  link  |  reply
gdog said

Aside from Boof, this Sabean love-in has gone off the deep end.

The Giants have one of the biggest payrolls in the majors and 15 years of a player who put up the best stats in the history of baseball. There is absolutely no reason that they should have three consecutive losing seasons.

The GM has been the same for more than 10 years; there is no question that the failure is on his shoulders. This level of failure would be absolutely unacceptable in the Yankees, Red Sox or Dodgers organization. It is hardly impatience to expect better than what we're getting.

[July 5, 2007 2:22 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Frank said

Exactly, gdog, but for '05 and effecftevely for much of '06 Bonds was not on the field.
Sure, you can rag on the 'position' players, but San Diego is leading the division with, in many categories, a worse offense than ours.
I fail to see how 'age' is the magical explanation. Bonds, Molina, Klesko, and Winn are all 'older.' They are also producing about what what could be reasonably expected of them. Aurilia and Roberts have both been hurt, which has robbed them of their productivity, for now. No one can promise they are 'done.' Durham wasn't expected to duplicate his career '06, but, he has definitely disappointed. Will he get hot in the second half like last year? No body knows. Omar has been ahuge disappiointment, but it is too early to say he is done as he has had major off years before.
As much as anything, the young players have disappointed - Linden, Niekro, Frandsen, Lewis, Ortmeier, Shierholtz, Alfonzo. Not surprising, as teams around the league have seen one young player after another bomb, with many getting sent down, other replaced by 'veterans.'
gdog, you jsut blindly look at the results without looking into the root causes, no. 1 of which is injuries - Nen, Bonds, Alou, Schmidt, Lowry, Morris, Matheney, and on and on.
People have preferences for the style of play, but face it, this team is not following the model of the Phillies, Brewers, Reds, offense oreinted teams. This team is following the San Diego, old LA Dodgers model, pitching, relief pitching, defense, speed. And our lower minors are filling up with these types of players, and they will start arriving in SF, in a small way, in '08, and then in '09 and beyond.
Just because people find it easier to criticize than to look at what is going on doesn't mean it's not there if you care to look.

[July 5, 2007 1:13 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Paul R. said

San Diego has outscored the Giants 356-351 on the year, despite playing in the toughest park on hitters in the majors, and despite not having a guy who gets on base 50% of the freaking time, like the Giants do. Their entire infield is made up of solid hitters under the age of 30 (ok, assuming Kouzmanoff gets it together).

I'd take their lineup any day over the one the Giants are trotting out there now.

[July 5, 2007 4:30 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ogc said

OK, Marcus Giles is in decline again, so I don't know how he can be called solid, Greene is often injured and doesn't hit for OBP and his OPS isn't that good for SS, so I wouldn't call that solid, and Kouzmanoff is far from anything right now.

And Brian Giles get on base over .400 for his career, so it's not like they are slumming either.

Before they got Barrett, would you really want Sledge, Brian Giles, Kouzmanoff, Marcus Giles, Bard? Only Gonzalez has been hitting that well, and we have Bonds and Klesko doing well. For OK production, then we got Winn, Durham, Molina, much like the Padres Greene, Cameron, Bard. The rest are around 700 OPS or worse.

Individually, sure, Greene definitely better than Vizquel, but overall, I think our offense is comparably bad, I would not rate then that much obviously better.

I disagree frank about the young players, Lewis, Schierholtz, Ortmeier and Frandsen has not been disappointments, Linden and Niekro were the only disappointments. And Alfonzo did as well as expected but it was disappointing about his injury.

Two of the losing years were with a diminished Bonds (or no Bonds in 2005), I don't think anyone would consider the Bonds of 2005/2006 to be the best in history.

[July 5, 2007 4:48 PM]  |  link  |  reply
gdog said

Frank, you're kidding, right? You can't have it both ways - we know old players get hurt. You can't sign them knowing that and then throw your hands up when they get hurt and say "who knew?"

So four old players haven't fallen off a cliff, so what? What about Marquis Grissom, Edgardo Alfonzo, Michael Tucker, Kirk Rueter, Omar Vizquel, Armando Benitez, Steve Finley - they were all penciled into the Giants' plans, and they all came crashing to earth as their skills disappeared.

The #1 problem with this team is the failure to build an adequate supporting cast behind Barry Bonds. Teams with 1) this much money and 2) the greatest hitter in the history of baseball do not have three-straight losing seasons.

And yes, I'm sorry, I do blindly look at the results. I see a team that allowed 616 runs in 2002, but 790 in 2006. I see a team that hasn't developed a major-league hitter in a decade. I see a management team that keeps making the same mistakes over and over while the product on the field gets worse and worse.

Sabean is dead wood, and so is the Giants "dynasty". torch 'em both

[July 5, 2007 5:36 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ogc said

Larry, to address your concerns, first, sabermetrically, batting average is overrated. Secondly:

CF: Roberts has a career OBP of .340, and recent production of .360; the average CF since 2000 has OBP of .335. Obviously Roberts is not a power guy and we don't need it from the leadoff position, most people don't have power from the leadoff position.

RF: Given that his 2006 was hampered by injury, his batting line since he became a regular in 2002 to 2005 is .296/.349/.453/.802. The average RF has hit .276/.350/.463/.813. He's just slightly behind average, but he can hit for average, he does get on base, and he has some power, not no power as you stated.

3B: well, can't argue there except for power plus he's one of the unsigned ones. But find me a better 3B free agent signing in the last off-season, though.

2B: Easy to hit a player when he's down, are you also arguing that Ryan Howard, Mark Teixeira, et al, are lousy bets too, just because they are having down years? Or David Wright until he started straightening out? Or how about Peavy last year, I suppose you were down on him last year but are OK with what he's doing this year? Durham for his Giants career has an OPS easily over 800, much better than the average 2B batting line of .273/.335/.406/.741, sometimes 100 better OPS. And he has great power for a 2B and gets on base much better, for his career, for his Giants stint.

SS: Again, easy to hit when he's down, but he's unsigned for next year so I guess the point is moot. Plus he was hitting much better in June until he strained his groin, nearly at the average .269/.326/.401/.727, he hit .260/.337/.351/.688, and OPB is his key metric in any case, you would rarely expect power from him or his position in the lineup, so power is a moot point for SS.