When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

07.19.2007
Matty Mo Crunch Time

Why is today’s game crucial for the Giants? Read no further than this paragraph, from ESPN writer Jayson Stark’s assessment of the trade landscape:

Five weeks ago, it would have been tough to find anything about Morris that clubs could grumble about, other than his contract ($9.5 million next year, with a $9 million option or $1 million buyout for 2009). After his first 13 starts, he was 7-3, 2.56, and had given up more than three earned runs just once all year.

But in five starts since, Morris is 0-2 with an 8.13 ERA -- the highest ERA of any NL starter who can match his innings pitched. So it's obvious, says one scout, that "the wheels are starting to come off a little bit." But for teams in a big ballpark (Dodgers, Padres, Braves, Mariners, etc.), he might still be a fit. At least, said an official of one club with a laugh, "He's one of the best of the worst.”

***

P.M. UPDATE: Sigh.

Sanchez up, Misch down. According to this, Misch will move into the Fresno rotation, perhaps as a replacement if Morris or Lowry is traded, perhaps as an audition for a rotation spot in the bigs next year.



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[July 19, 2007 5:07 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Jefferson said

I imagine today might put in the final nail in that dream.

[July 19, 2007 6:21 PM]  |  link  |  reply
BawLa said

I think the real question is: What happens when Ortiz is ready? There is a good chance we will be making a move soon, and I eagerly await something tasty in return. Of course Morris is single-handedly ruining his value but I still think at least one pitcher is going to be sent packing.


What do you guys think it would take to pry Carl Crawford away from Tampa Bay? Maybe Morris and a relief pitcher? Maybe Lowry + another player? Maybe Morris AND Lowry?

Morris would be a great piece for Tampa Bay, who desperately needs a veteran pitcher to bolster their starting rotation. Lowry has been improving every year with the exception of last year's hiccup. Add Morris and Lowry (and relatively cheaply) to Shields and Kazmir and the D-Rays have the makings of a decent rotation for the future. We could even pay a part of Morris' contract to sweeten the deal.

We have years before we will be competitive again so we can insert Ortiz and Sanchez back into the starting lineup and work on development. It's not like Cain and Linceboy don't have room to improve. And we can continue our Ortiz experiment and see if any value can come of it. Meanwhile Misch and Begg will be working on being top replacement for the start of next season.

[July 19, 2007 6:33 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

Carl Crawford would probably require Cain or Lincecum. He's an All-Star outfielder with tremendous speed and some power and he's only 25.

[July 19, 2007 7:40 PM]  |  link  |  reply
pantalones said

Good to hear Misch will be back in the rotation.

Hopefully Morris pitches well in two starts at AT&T next week, a desparate team makes us a solid offer, and we take it. I'm not overly optimistic, but you never now.

However, even if Morris continues to suck for another week, there are still some interesting scenarios as I see it:

1) We dump Morris in a deadline deal for a C prospect in a salary dump, although we may have to include a little cash in the deal.

2) We put him through waivers in early August, and nobody claims him since he doesn't look like he's worth his future salry these days. He then rolls off a few impressive starts while a contending team has two starters go on the disabled list. Ta da! He's a valuable trade chip again.

3) We put him through waivers in early August, and somebody claims him to block him from going to a contender, and we say... fine. Take him.

4) We hold on to him and hope he has more value in the spring or at next year's deadline.

[July 19, 2007 7:54 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Frank said

Actually, I think putting Misch back in the rotation makes sense. Misch has 4 pitches, Sanchez has 1 and maybe his change is starting to come around. Sanchez has been very good against LH hitters (until today) and hit hard by RH hitters. Well, if he's starting, managers will load their lineups w/ RH hitters and things could get ugly.
I don't know when and where he's gonna develop a slider or splitter, but he needs 3 pitches before he goes into the rotation.
Misch needs some refining, too, but, I think, he is more ready for starting than Sanchez. I haven't looked (yet) but I would guess he does better against RH hitters than Sanchez.

[July 19, 2007 8:25 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ogc said

He's actually doing very well against both, even better against RHH:

v.LH 21.2 IP .217/.267/.325/.592 .321 BABIP

v.RH 31.2 IP .177/.252/.204/.456 .244 BABIP

So it looks like he's been lucky this year against RHH, his BABIP is so low.

But reliever's stats are notorious for going all over the place.

Last year was a more typical split in AAA:

v.LH 16.1 IP .284/.284/.403/.687 .346 BABIP

v.RH 48.1 IP .288/.324/.461/.784 .345 BABIP

Worse, but notice his BABIP is pretty high, suggesting that these batting lines could go down some, assuming regression to the .300 BABIP mean.

Yeah, I agree, clearly it is a sign that they think Misch can take on Sanchez for the starting rotation next season. I thought it was pretty much written in stone, but perhaps Sanchez still hasn't learned that pitch he needed to be a starter while in the bullpen this year.

It could also mean that the Giants plan on bringing up another starter to use in the bullpen and need a new starter in AAA but didn't want to promote anyone from AA.

In any case, typically starters do better in a relieving role because they don't have to hold back anything. However, in Misch's case, he has nothing to hold back, so his success in his relief role should portend great success in the starting rotation too, no? Or am I missing something?

In any case, Misch until recently was basically following Lowry's career arc of advancement, and with similar stuff and out pitch, their changeup, with the plus of outdoing Lowry at each level.

However, he stalled at AAA, if I remember right, then got switched to relief. I guess he's now proved himself to the Giants management, which could make Lowry expendable, since Misch looks like he could be as good as Lowry.

Just some thoughts on Misch.