When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

07.29.2007
Weekend Update

A few questions to glean from the weekend’s games:

1) Will Pedro Feliz’s recent hot streak — 18–for-49 since July 15, raising his averages to a still-lousy .251/.293/.441 — make him tradeable? And if so, to fill his spot at least temporariily what about taking a flyer on Morgan Ensberg, who was just released by the Astros?

Though Ensberg is having a miserable year, here are his career numbers: .266/.367/.475. That’s so much better than Feliz, it’s not even close. If the Giants don’t have many options for third base next year and Ensberg can be coaxed here cheaply, why the hell not give him an audition now?

One possible answer: he’s toast. He’s had shoulder problems for some time now, and it’s possible that nothing but rest will bring him back to his previous levels.

2) Is Barry Bonds done? This could be it. Sure, he’ll hit a home run here, a home run there, especially when the Rick Vanden Hurks of the world are on the mound, but he looked extremely pitchable this weekend. The only time he looks dominant is after a nice long rest, and baseball doesn’t work that way. The next two months could be ugly.

3) What about August? The trade deadline of July 31 is only relative. If players clear waivers, they can be traded until the end of August. With another Matt Morris stinkbomb today, I doubt any GM will want him now when, with some luck, they may be able to snag him in August if he starts to pitch better. Other Giants vets — Feliz, Durham, Klesko — could also be wait-and-see pickups in August. Note: When I say Morris sucked today, I’m only going by the stat line. I didn’t see or hear the game. The 8 Ks and no walks in 7 innings, however, make me wonder if he pitched much better than the 13 hits indicate? Were there a lot of bloopers and bleeders?



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[July 29, 2007 11:43 PM]  |  link  |  reply
CJ said

Is ARod done? Have you watched the cut-ins? He's been making Pedro look good.

[July 30, 2007 11:11 AM]  |  link  |  reply
#99 said

ELM,

I agree why not give Ensberg a shot, but don't expect a great deal from him. His power numbers are probably helped greatly by Minute Maid park. His OBP is interesting but I think Feliz is probably a MUCH better fielder. Actually I think Pedro is not given the credit he deserves for his defense.

[July 30, 2007 12:10 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

>Is ARod done?

huh? is this sarcasm?

[July 30, 2007 1:39 PM]  |  link  |  reply
the gene hackman said

Morris' outing made the fish look like the clutchiest clutchsters who ever clutched. Lots of solid two out knocks. "strikeout, strikeout, double, double," was how morris put it.

BTW i don't think bonds is done. i think he's worn down and distracted. and that might be a disctiction without a difference. i mean, don't you think his plate approach will change when he's not trying to hit #s 755 and 756 anymore? It almost has to.

[July 30, 2007 1:40 PM]  |  link  |  reply
pantalones said

Sarcasm or no, the "pitchable" Bonds passed ARod this weekend and is now leading the majors in OPS, and is on pace to appear in 143 games, when the over/under for him this year was generally considered to be 110-120. I guess it depends on how generously you define "ugly", but by historical standards, Barry is enjoying a beautiful twilight.

Mays's last year: .647 OPS, .242 EqA
McCovey's last year: .586, .228
Aaron's last two years: .687/.684, .265/.265
Ripken's last year: .637, .232
Bonds's current stats: 1.055, .372

One of these mini-slumps will eventually mark the end, of course, but I wouldn't overreact to a nervous week of swinging for the fences.

[July 30, 2007 2:00 PM]  |  link  |  reply
BawLa said

Umm, Gene...it seemed to me that there was a large handful of bleeders and bloopers in that game. Sure Morris gave up some hits, and I especially didn't want to see him pitch to Cabrera with first base open. But the fish got some lucky hits that ended up making their rallies.

[July 30, 2007 2:38 PM]  |  link  |  reply
the gene hackman said

BAWLA, weren't half of those 13 hits, extra-base hits?

Not sure anyone can spin that into unlucky.

[July 30, 2007 4:04 PM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive said

According to DIPS theory, hits are just random noise that occurs, that strikeouts and walks are what really matters, and by that measure, Morris was outstanding.

If anyone remembers, I would compare this game to a Big Daddy game, he would strike out a bunch of guys, but there will be those games where he just gets pounded by hits.

That said, most GM's don't know dip aboug DIPS, so it won't look good to them either. Our only hope right now is that DIPS is right, that Morris actually pitched well but just had bad results and he can built off of that in August. Same with Zito's "breaktout" game after the ASG that went nowhere.

Bonds is just tired of the media hounding, it was the same thing with 73 in 2001, he wore down from all the attention and hubbub. A hitter with an OPS over 1.000 is no one to worry about being at the end of his career. As pantalones noted, other stars at the end really sucked, and for multiple years too. Heck, Mays was basically done as a power hitter at 36 but played for another 5 seasons because he could get on base and, well, was Willie Mays.

Only Ted Williams was able to retire with a good end to his career, he probably could have played more years, but like Bonds couldn't manage more than 60-80% of the games played. If the DH had existed then, though, Teddyball probably could have played into his late 40's.

Sabean noted that teams were more reluctant to trade this year in his Wednesday KNBR call and so clearly any moves that happen will be in August, if at all.

Ensberg is a nice call, I thought he was maybe done, but he's had a nice July this far. He is a Minute Maid lover, so he's actually a below average hitter on the road and I have no idea what his defense is like, but I've never seen his name around Feliz. I would rather play Feliz and see if he progresses offensively since defense is so important to our pitching core.

[July 30, 2007 4:38 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Frank said

Enberg has a damaged tendon. Not torn, damaged, but I don't know beyond that what the particulars are, nor if he needs surgery. He would never hit in the big parks in the NLWest and his D is below average.
The problem with Morris isn't so much how he has pitched, it is that no one really needs him. Seattle certainly doesn't - Weaver has been very good in June and July. And no way does he go to the Dodgers - doesn't make sense on either end, particularly theirs (think Colleti wants "another Tomko" tirade in the papers?). The other teams in contention (and I'm leaving out the Yanquis) are pretty good 1-4 and can live with whoever they have as their #5.

[July 30, 2007 10:21 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Chris said

Frank,

Strongly disagree about Ensberg's glove. He's rated very solid with the glove, I'm not sure what you're talking about with "below average".

By UZR, he saves you 7 runs per 150/games. HIs FRAA scores are almost comparable with Feliz in some years, though I'd rate him a tick or two below Feliz, he can play 3rd base.

I'm concerned about his shoulder but consider this, he was worth 8.5 wins in 2005 for the Astros and 5.2 wins last year, in his down year.

Feliz on the other hand has never topped 3 wins per year. WARP takes into account defense too, so no arguments about Pedro's D not being accounted for.

If Ensberg could come cheap, the Giants should definitely take a look see.

[July 31, 2007 3:29 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Frank said

Good information, Chris, and better than my second hand generalizations.