When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

08.31.2007
Pen Draggin'

My new favorite toy is Baseball Prospectus’s WXRL, a more reasonable way to measure relief pitchers’ performances. The final product of WXRL, which stands for “Win Expectation above Replacement, Lineup-adjusted,” is a straightforward number that looks like ERA — except the higher, the better.

As I’ve mentioned before, Brad Hennessey leads the Giants this year. His current 2.62 score means he’s contributed about two and a half more wins than a replacement-level player. He added nearly a full win to his score thanks to a strong August, moving from #48 in the MLB to #38. (The major-league leader is Seattle’s J.J. Putz at 6.05.)  

Unless Hennessey makes a similar push in September, it will be only the third time since Robb Nen took over in 1998 that the team’s top reliever has contributed fewer than three wins. The others: Kevin Correia in 2006 (1.83) and Jim Brower in 2004 (2.55).

A low-scoring top thrower isn’t necessarily bad: in 2003 Tim Worrell led S.F. with a 3.90 WXRL and placed 15th in the majors, but the team had four others in the top 60.

To give you a sense of what it takes to accumulate one WXRL “win,” note that Brian Wilson has thrown 10 2/3 scoreless innings in his 10 appearances and has a WXRL score of 1.20.

Here are the highest season totals of the past ten years:

Eric Gagne 2003: 9.24
Trevor Hoffman 1998: 8.28
Keith Foulke 2000: 8.21
Gagne 2002: 8.20
Brad Lidge 2004: 8.10

Ready for a quiz?

Since 1990, which Giant reliever has posted the highest single-season WXRL? Name the player, the year, and the position he finished among all major-leaguers.

If you subscribe to Baseball Prospectus, no peeking.



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[August 31, 2007 4:31 PM]  |  link  |  reply
trilljester said

Robb Nen, 2000, #2.

[August 31, 2007 5:09 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Paul R. said

Ah, dammit, that was my guess too, but just for laughs I'll change it to Robb Nen 1998, at #3.

[August 31, 2007 5:14 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Josh from Hollywood said

I also thought it was Nen in 2000, but my second choice is the late, great Rod Beck in 1993, and I'll guess he finished 2nd overall.

[August 31, 2007 5:23 PM]  |  link  |  reply
bigO said

I thought this was funny since it mentions both Buttnitez and Ol' cream of wheat and McGuire . . .

With the Giants' cool-headed closer, the furniture is safe and so is a lead

There are certain things major league managers find downright scary--Pedro Martinez on the mound. Mark McGwire up with the bases loaded. Turn Back the Clock Day in Houston. But for National League managers the most disturbing sight of all may be watching Robb Nen jog out of the Giants' bullpen with San Francisco in the lead.
Check out the past year, beginning last June 5: Nen has converted 44 of 48 saves for a .917 percentage--easily the best mark in the majors. Yes, that includes Mariano Rivera, Kazuhiro Sasaki, Armando Benitez and Trevor Hoffman. Nen also leads relievers in ERA (1.79) and fewest runners per nine innings pitched (8.2). In his last 70 1/3 innings, he has struck out 104 and walked just nine unintentionally. Until he gave up three runs last Saturday at the notoriously hitter-friendly Coors Field, Nen had gone 92 straight appearances without allowing more than two runs, something no other current closer could match.

"That guy Nen, I hate to even see him warming up," says Felipe Alou, fired last week as manager of the Expos. "He's the guy you least want to see out there. There are guys out there who are going to get you saves. But the stuff this guy has is wicked. It isn't hittable I can't remember the last time that guy gave us a pitch where I could say, `Wow, we missed that pitch?'"

[August 31, 2007 7:27 PM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive said

Lefty, since you can peek and appear to have perused the top WXRL since 1990, what would you say is a good level for a reliever to have? Obviously, based on the table of data, single year peaks of over 8 is rare and beautiful, so would, say, a WXRL over 4, be considered a good season?

I ask because WXRL is the metric BP used to do their study of successful playoff team that I wrote about, and they didn't give any indication in their book what a good WXRL is, other than bigger is better. Can you give a ballpark on what a good WXRL might be? Thanks.

[August 31, 2007 7:51 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Dan from NM said

Mike Jackson, 1993, No. 3

[August 31, 2007 9:59 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

No one has guessed it perfectly yet. One person is extremely close.

Martin -- good question re. what makes a good WXRL score. The lowest top score in recent years is K-Rod's 5.62 in 2005. A score of 3.5 or higher usually seems enough to put a pitcher in the top 20.

[August 31, 2007 10:11 PM]  |  link  |  reply
bigO said

Rod Beck 1994 (he was an allstar I think in '93 and '94). 3rd.

[September 1, 2007 1:58 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

ANSWER: It was indeed Beck. In 1993 he was the top reliever in the bigs with a WXRL score of 7.43.

Robb Nen's highest finish was 4th in 1998 with 5.69.

[September 2, 2007 1:52 AM]  |  link  |  reply
green apron monkey said

An average WXRL is about .340. It depends on how many innings you've worked, but I would say that if you are above 3 then it's a good year. Guys can be having pretty crappy seasons and still land in the 1 to 2 WXRL range.

By the way lest you think that the Giants pen is as bad as it can get check this out: of the Bottom 10 in WXRL, 4 are or were Devil Rays and had a combined 155 innings of work. Armando's work for Florida is third from the bottom.

[September 2, 2007 2:59 AM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive said

Thanks Lefty!

Wow, that means Brian Wilson is already one third of the way to a good season in the little time he has pitched.

And Brad is not that far away from what could be a good season, if he's nearly at 3, and 3.5 is the bar he needs to reach. If he can put together a good string in September, he could conceivably reach 3.5, given how quickly Wilson has amassed a greater amount than Brad needs to reach 3.5.