When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

08.06.2007
What You Want and What You Need

P.M. UPDATE: Grant has kicked off a good discussion at the McChronic about playing the young’uns. I definitely want to see more Rajai Davis, and with lefties starting for Washington tonight and tomorrow, Rajai should be leading off both nights. My prediction for tonight:

CF Davis
RF Winn
2B Durham
LF Bonds
C Molina
1B Fleas
3B Frandsen
SS Vizquel
P Lincecum

Amazing how well the San Diego fans reacted to Bonds’s home run Saturday. (Maybe there’s really something to that whole classy San Diego schtick.) Equally amazing was Bud Selig’s sourpuss reaction, according to those who saw him on TV. Hands in pockets, he pulled a facial expression “usually reserved for a first time urology patient,” writes BP’s Gary Huckabay, and only stood up when Tom Hicks — Tom Hicks! — told him to. Selig’s refusal to give an inch to Bonds extends to his “congratulatory” statements, another one of which he issued after #755. Stay clueless, Bud.

***

As Brian Sabean plugs away at potential trade partners, humming his finest worksong, the Giants will only unload some of their veterans this month if a contender suddenly, desperately needs to fill a hole. Keep your eyes on the injury reports, folks. For example:

* The Tigers lost backup infielder Neifi Perez to a drug-related suspension. Finally, the mystery of Neifi’s late-career power surge solved, eh? Apparently Los Tigres would like a glove-enabled shortstop for the stretch so they can move Carlos Guillent to first base more often. Pittsburgh’s Jack Wilson has cropped up in trade rumors, but wouldn’t Omar be a perfect fit? An instant crowd favorite, too.

* Alfonso Soriano is out for perhaps a month with a leg strain suffered in last night’s game. If it proves more serious, could this be an opening for Randy Winn, who would have to waive his no-trade clause? Unlikely, because the Cubs have uberprospect Felix Pie ready for duty, and even with the Cubs’ golden opportunity this year, I can’t imagine GM Jim Hendry would panic for the expensive proven veteran over the unproven youngster. Then again, Hendry traded for Jason Kendall…

* Anyone with pitching holes. The Tigers won’t have Kenny Rogers back as soon as they hoped. The Angels will miss Bartolo Colon the rest of the year. And it’s still a question whether Pedro Martinez can return to make a difference for the Mets. Enter Russ Ortiz. If he takes a couple quality turns in the rotation (I assume Noah Lowry will hit the DL, with my fingers crossed that it’s only a precautionary measure), Ortiz could be tempting to a team desperate for another starter down the stretch. Then again, because of his minimum contract he may not make it through waivers.

* Speaking of Lowry, here’s what BP’s Will Carroll writes this morning:

Noah Lowry was a pitcher with as much potential as Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain not too long ago, but as he left his last start with what's being called a "tight forearm," the signs don't look so good. Despite having 12 wins for a sub-.500 team, Lowry's control and K rate have been descending quickly, though his velocity has been normal. Those are among the signs of an elbow problem, though initial reports from the Giants indicate that they don't feel it's a ligament problem. After Lowry's early exit, the Giants were forced to use Barry Zito on his throw day, and he responded with a perfect 17-pitch inning. Lowry will attempt to throw on the side Tuesday, but don't be surprised if his start is pushed back, or if he's even pushed to the DL while the Giants attempt to make life easier for a strained bullpen.

If Lowry is disabled and Ortiz is traded, the Giants could shift Jonathan Sanchez into the rotation and call up Erick Threets. Or keep Sanchez in the pen and call up Travis Blackley, the guy they got for Jason Ellison. Blackley has been unspectacular with Fresno this year, but he’s still only 24 and worth a look.

Here’s something else I missed over the weekend.



Also on the Network:



[August 6, 2007 2:50 PM]  |  link  |  reply
pantalones said

Heh... Morris homered and pitched to the minimum through three before it started to fall apart.

"Noah Lowry was a pitcher with as much potential as Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain not too long ago..."

Um, well this just isn't true.

[August 6, 2007 3:09 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

Yes and no. Cain and Lincecum were more hyped, but Lowry's first year and a half in the bigs were pretty damn impressive. Through 2005, Lowry was 19-13 with 7.4 K/9 and about 3 BB/9.

Through 2006 (about a year and a quarter), Cain's K/9 was 7.9 and his BB/9 was 4.

[August 6, 2007 3:12 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

Also, Lowry made his ML debut at 22. He was still 23 when he came up for good in mid-04, so there isn't too much age difference between him and Cain/Lincecum.

[August 6, 2007 3:47 PM]  |  link  |  reply
trilljester said

Has Threets been able to find control down in Fresno?

Also, I had discussions with some Seattle fans, and they said he was basically done in Seattle, and had nothing left. What's the general consensus on him?

[August 6, 2007 3:53 PM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive said

Yeah, but the point is that he said that Lowry had as much potential as Lincecum and Cain, and that's not true at all. Yes, he had a great year and a half, but Cain and Lincecum flew up the farm system whereas Lowry was unheralded, I can still remember his first call-up, when he came in the game, I was at that game and wondered "who?!?". Even after his great year and a half, and his great Augusts, his potential, as compared to that of Cain or Lincecum, is no where near, he's a team's #2 starter potentially, both Cain and Lincecum are potential aces.

[August 6, 2007 3:56 PM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive said

Also, here's what I posted on trades under the Henry post:

"Also, I wonder what trade Sabean was working on Sat before it fell through and they decided to DL Aurilia instead. Seemed like a position player on the 25 man since they DLed Aurilia only after the trade died and he's a position player. I would guess that Sweeney and Klesko would be the hottest commodities and players most easily replaceable. Durham isn't hitting and was injured again recently, Vizquel they probably will need next season unless they really believe that A-Rod is coming here (NOT!), Feliz might return because of his defense and improved hitting, and I would have to think that Roberts is wanted for his knowledge on stealing and his passing some of Maury Wills techniques to our many fine young speedsters in our farm system. He has a very high success rate.

I guess there goes Lowry's trade value for this season, we'll have to wait until the off-season to trade him if we want anyone good for him. One rumor I saw at the Merc last week was that Sanchez could have fetched us Carlos Gomez from the Mets - which wouldn't have been that bad a trade, some liken him to a Jose Reyes in CF, he steals even more bases than Davis, and I think he's only 20 years old."

Also, I realized just now that if the trade involved a reliever, then that would have cleared a spot for Misch as well, so perhaps it wasn't a position player nearly being traded; it just seems natural as most of the vets we should be trading are position players.

[August 6, 2007 4:03 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

trilljester -- I'll answer your questions, but first, for future reference, there are two excellent sites for minor league stats:

milb.com has breakdowns of this year's current stats (game logs, splits, etc).

thebaseballcube.com has historical minor league stats and has just added up-to-date current stats.

Now, re. Threets:

no, his control is as bad as ever -- 32 BB/26 K in 38 IP. But the Giants might soon lose his rights -- I believe he's been in their system for 6 years -- and it would be fun to see him in the bigs.

Re. Blackley: He's only a couple years removed from arm surgery, so the fact that he's pitching every 5th day in AAA shows he's not "done." He's not knocking anyone dead, but he's not stinking it up: in 130 IP, about one hit per inning, twice as many Ks as BBs. Factor in the extreme hitter's environment of the PCL, and it's fair to say the Giants should hold on to Blackley if not for this year, then for next.

[August 6, 2007 4:37 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

>Cain and Lincecum flew up the farm system whereas Lowry was unheralded...

I understand arguments about Cain and Lincecum's ceiling being higher based on their "stuff." But to say Lowry, because he was "unheralded," didn't have as much potential when he arrived for good as a 23-year-old -- that doesn't hold water.

[August 6, 2007 4:47 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Chris said

I'm on the Blackely bandwagon and hope the Giants will call him up now that Lowry is most certainly headed to some sort of stint on the DL.

I do not want to see Russ Ortiz start any games this year for the Giants unless he absolutely has to. I'd much rather find out what guys like Misch and Blackley can do for the team.

[August 6, 2007 4:59 PM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive said

According to my pre-season prospect book, Blackley had labrum surgery in 2004 and is close to being the same pitcher. But that's not necessarily a good thing as he has below average velocity and has the inability to spin the baseball, which would lead to overexposure with hitters, making him an unreliable MLB starter.

However, when he was only 20 years old, the year before his operation, he had 157 K's in 154 IP, and was very good in AA. If he can regain that ability, I don't see why he can't be a good LOOGY then work up from there.

Heck, if he can return to that former form in the minors, he would certainly fetch us a better prospect in return in a trade than Ellison. Ellison is like that former A's whose role was pinch-runner (Herb Washington?), he's been up with Seattle all year and yet has so few ABs that it looks like he's only been up for a few weeks or so.

[August 6, 2007 5:17 PM]  |  link  |  reply
bigO said

fyi: Jason Ellison was designated for assignment on Friday to make room for Adam Jones, Ellison is waiting to hear whether or not he will be traded or sent to Triple-A Tacoma. I haven't heard yet but he's not on the Tacoma Rainers roster as of now??

[August 6, 2007 6:17 PM]  |  link  |  reply
johnP said

Selig's reaction does not make sense. What I mean is the following: Did Bonds break a record, or not? If he broke the record legitimately, it's your obligation to honor him. If he did not break a record, then why are you allowing him on the field? Are you saying that his actions on the field are illegitimate? If so, then what about the Giants' win/loss record, to which Bonds contributed? If this, then what about the win/loss record of Giants' opponents? If, by his body language, Selig is placing Bond's achievements into doubt, by extension, he is publicly acknowledging that Baseball, itself, is of marginal credibility.

[August 6, 2007 6:23 PM]  |  link  |  reply
johnP said

I'll phrase the same thing differently: If the Commissioner of Baseball thinks Bonds' achievement is illegitimate, then why is he allowing Bonds to play? The book, Game of Shadows was, in my opinion, a book about Bud Selig, rather than about Barry Bonds. Does Bud Selig know something that we don't? That many of Baseball's stars are juicers?

[August 6, 2007 7:30 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

johnP: excellent point. The first thing Selig's behavior indicates is his belief that baseball has an image problem. He's made such an obvious theater of his displeasure, but for whom? Himself? His buddy Hank Aaron? Perhaps, but I think Selig is more savvy than that. It's for the public, and he's trying to send a message: Don't worry, America, I want you all to know that we don't approve. Barry Bonds doesn't represent you, and he doesn't represent baseball.

Problem is, as JohnP points out, the theater backfires; the commissioner doth protest too much.

[August 6, 2007 9:35 PM]  |  link  |  reply
johnP said

His buddy Hank Aaron? Ya - if Hank was $elig's buddy, he'd be congratulating Bonds, and pretending that all's well in $elig's kingdom.

[August 6, 2007 9:36 PM]  |  link  |  reply
gdog said

Why are you excited about Rajai Davis? He hasn't exactly set AAA on fire, and he's almost 27. Sure, he's fast, but he projects as no better than an average defensive CF, and as a below-average hitter.

Lewis is a better player...and he's still not exciting.

[August 7, 2007 2:39 AM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

Re. Rajai: from looking at stats, he's not exciting, but I've really liked what I see on the field. Super-fast, great breaks on fly balls, strong arm, and a little bit of patience at the plate. I just got back from the yard, and he had a great game. You couldn't tell from the box score, but he was on base three times, hit another ball on a rope for an out, and made a couple nice plays in the outfield.