When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

09.14.2007
Incumbents and Challengers

The drumbeat is growing stronger: Vizquel in ‘08, Vizquel in ‘08. The Chron reports this morning that some of his teammates want him back, and the man himself wants to return.

Questions to consider: Do the flashy plays he makes on defense mask a shrinking range? Is his dreadful offensive year (.243 / .303 / .300) a permanent decline, or can he muster an acceptable career-average year at the age of 41? If he could magically guarantee just a career-average season (.274 / .340 / .357),would you want him back? If so, how much should he earn? If another team competes for his services, should the Giants throw in a second-year option to sweeten the deal? If not Omar at short next year, who?

Discuss.

***

SMALL PRINT UPDATE: Now listening to The New Pornographers’ Challengers. In most of its best work — “Letter to an Occupant,” “The Laws Have Changed,” “It’s Only Divine Right,” “Use It,” “Sing Me Spanish Techno” — the band likes to romp, slash and burn. The drums are mixed front and center, the beat propulsive, the vocals loud and insistent, their shape and punctuation more important than the conscious meaning of their unmoored imagery.

Challengers is different. As this perceptive guy pointed out to me (and please, check out his interview with Joe Henry) someone pulled in the reins on the drums, a huge difference in the album’s presentation. It’s not just that there are softer songs — Neko Case’s work on the lovely title track is perhaps my favorite — but that even the fast ones feel held out for inspection instead of thrust into your ears.

I like it, but better than the three previous? It’s too different to say yet. One thing’s for sure: the older I get, the more I like Dan Bejar’s contributions to the band. Place “Myriad Harbor” with The Pogues’ “Fairytale of New York” and Lou Reed’s “Halloween Parade” (and much of the rest of his New York album) among the classic rock paeans to the Big Apple.



Also on the Network:



[September 14, 2007 1:50 PM]  |  link  |  reply
BawLa said

No, no, and no again. When did we get to the point where it is okay to settle for mediocre? I'm not going to sit here and tell you that we definitely have a better option because that depends on your interperetation of better.

But haven't we been down this road before? Signing guys that are older than 35? Isn't that what got us into our current predicament? Hasn't it been nice seeing more Ort, more KFran, more Nasty Nate, more MajaRajai? I think it has. And I want to see even more youth.

Bottom line, we are going to suck anyway, so there is no point in bringing Vizquel back. He has no upside, his skills are declining, and he will cost at least $3M, but more likely more. He's not going to fill the seats either. If you can resign him for $1M or less, then yes, otherwise I would rather see the roster spot filled by someone with at least some upside, no matter how dismal it may seem.

Don't get me wrong, I love Omar. He is a quality character, a leader, and a consumate professional. But this club is heading in a different direction than Omar. Too bad, time to move on.

Now if he signed a contract to be a coach in our system after 1 more year of playing SS, then I would have to say yes. But I wouldn't give him a contract just to hope he comes back as a coach.

[September 14, 2007 2:06 PM]  |  link  |  reply
bigO said

If another team wants him then it's time to say goodbye. a 2nd year? no way. We can listen to him on "RADIO NOWHERE." Coming to Oakland for The Boss in Oct. (wish it was during Baseball season.)

[September 14, 2007 3:24 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

So, if not Omar, then who? Frandsen?

I wouldn't mind seeing how Ivan Ochoa can handle the position. His minor league career stats aren't impressive, but neither were Vizquel's. Compare:

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/V/Omar-Vizquel.shtml

http://thebaseballcube.com/players/O/Ivan-Ochoa.shtml

I've only heard vague reports that Ochoa's D is quite good. Any scouting reports out there?

[September 14, 2007 4:40 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Boof said

How about trading for a young SS who's not in our system?

[September 14, 2007 4:53 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Sarge said

I wouldn't trade for anyone because I wouldn't want to lose draft picks. I saw the stats on Omar and Ochoa and I agree, let's bring the kid up. Have a nice day Omar,thanks for the memories...

[September 14, 2007 5:45 PM]  |  link  |  reply
BawLa said

Before you think about a replacement, you have to keep in mind that no one that replaces him will approach or match is defensive capability. Obviously. Once we have accepted that, then we have to look at what we need from the position. We need decent defense because we are a team centered around pitching. We need more offensive production -- IE OPS more than .650.

There are many places the replacement can come from. Frandsen, Ochoa, a trade, Aurilia. Hopefully we stay away from the free agent market at SS. Unless of course if we pick up a certain 3B/SS.

The chances of moving Durham are slim. If we are stuck with him I think Frandsen is a lock.

Maybe we could eat Durham's contract and move him. Then we bring up Bergolla if Ochoa fails and move Frandsen to SS. There is some rebuilding flexibility there. Especially considering that we are not contending in '08.

[September 14, 2007 6:37 PM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive said

According to BP 2006's annual, Ochoa can "pick it" so I have to assume he has very good defense.

If the Giants decide to blow off 2008, they have to start Ochoa and see what happens, que sera, sera.

If the decide to try to go all out and win again, I would be unhappy, but then they probably go with Vizquel.

If they want to be competitive but not necessarily winning, I think they have to go with Ochoa, he actually hit pretty well in AAA this year, relative to his previous seasons, which is why he ended up with us and not stay where he was before, Cleveland.

Of course, we don't know how much of that improvement is just the PCL's fabled hitter's league, but still, probably won't do much worse than Vizquel's OPS this season, that would be a steep 150 point drop in OPS.

Oddly enough, he's always walked a lot before in his career, even in 2006, but apparently the Giants got him to hit more aggressively, eschewing the walks but getting a lot more hits and more power. If that is so, that's a great tradeoff they did and he still has a nice contact rate, he doesn't appear to have increased his K-rate while dropping his BB-rate a lot.

And he's only 24 (25 next season) so maybe he finally developed, after never showing any offensive talent other than stealing bases early in his career (and that disappeared in AA).

Hmm, I was really for retaining Vizquel for 2008 to provide defense for the pitchers, but only at a low under $2M contract (hopefully only $1M), but looking at Ochoa's stats and age, I think we should just start Ochoa next season at SS.

Frandsen can back up 2B and SS, and could take over 2B if Durham hits like this season in spring training and April (I would just release Durham at that point), plus I would play him regularly at 3B, basically platooning with Aurilia at 3B (though both are RHH). Aurilia would also get games at 1B if Ortmeier is starting, against tough starters, may as well ease Ort in.

[September 14, 2007 8:42 PM]  |  link  |  reply
BawLa said

I know it is not necessarily a good thing to get platoon-happy, but here are some cheap and interesting ideas moving into next season.

First Base:
Ortmeier (vs. RHP)
Niekro (vs. LHP)
McClain (vs. LHP)
Note - Yes I dropped an N-Bomb up in here. McClain .938 OPS vs. LHP.

Second Base:
Frandsen (vs. RHP)
Ochoa (vs. LHP)
Bergolla (vs. LHP)
Durham (vs. RHP)
Note - obviously it would be nice to move Ray but if he had a rebound year it would create more competition for the kids AND raise his trade value. Bergolla 1.125 OPS vs. LHP in almost 100 AB.

Shortstop:
Frandsen (vs. RHP)
Ochoa (vs. LHP)
Figueroa (vs. LHP)
Note - Figueroa .939 OPS vs. LHP. Ochoa .996 OPS vs. LHP.

Third Base:
Leone (vs. LHP)
De La Rosa (vs. LHP)
Feliz?? (more power vs. RHP)
Note - Leone .986 OPS vs LHP. De La Rosa .930 OPS vs. LHP.

Center Field:
Davis (better vs. RHP, he should have position outright)

Left Field:
Lewis (vs. RHP)
Leone (vs. LHP)

Right Field:
Schierholtz (he should have this position outright)

If we keep Winn, he is much better vs. LHP, so he is platoonable with both Davis and Lewis.

[September 15, 2007 1:18 AM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive said

If you go by Ort's limited MLB stats, yeah, he bats against RHP, but if you go by his vast history in the minors, you have to go with him batting against LHP, he has always struggled against RHP in the minors, even this season:

v.LHP: .301/.368/.485/.854
v.RHP: .243/.315/.403/.718

I would just play him against all, as much as I like Niekro. I would rather let Niekro still play some 1B, perhaps platoon with Ishikawa in AAA, but give him a lot of time to pitch with his knuckler. That's his real future with us, bench hitter, spot 1B, who can relieve, or, who knows, maybe can start, his Uncle Phil started late too and still won 300 games.

OT: but, man, Hennessey's WRXL is probably under 2.0 after today's game, Wilson should be inserted as closer soon, what's that, 4 blown saves in 5 now?

[September 15, 2007 2:44 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Frank said

As I have said a hundred times, the assumption that we will suck next year is rather unfounded. WE have a top 5 pitching staff (which includes Morris and Benitiz' numbers), only .06 behind the # 2 Dodgers. Our pitching should be quite a bit better next year, both SP and RP. Score another 2 runs a week and we should be right there with the other NL West contenders - not clearly better, just right there.
While Ochoa had decent numbers this year, he was still the second string SS for Fresno, unable to beat out 35 y.o. Figueroa (443 ABs vs 179).
It seems pretty clear Molina is our C. It looks like Ort is being given 1b, probably with Aurilia as back up. I really wonder what they will do about 2b. I imagine they are very tempted to say Ray will bounce back, but I would prefer to give him away and install Frandsen - with Bergolla just 3 hours away. I think, if they go with two new, young starters on the Rt side, they will likely bring back Omar AND Feliz (for defense, and also assuming, as Lefty suggested, that Omar bounces back to his career averages). This is unless they trade pitching for either a 3b or SS. In other words, I think they go with 2 of their upcoming rookies (likely Ort and Frandsen) and bring back 2 vets or replace one or both remaining vets with another vet(s).
I find it hard to believe (altho just two weeks ago I thought it was unimaginable) they don't bring Bonds back. I am pretty equivocal, now, but would not mind seeing Davis, Lewis, Schierholtz, and 1 of Winn or Roberts man the OF. This is a pretty frugal off season, and I expect them to make more of a splash, but I think, with this team, the pitching gives up 30 fewer runs, and the O scores 30 more runs. Regarding the O and scoring more runs, I concede I have not crunched the numbers - or looked really long and hard at the effect of the loss of Bonds. My "analysis" is like this:
1) Molina: 8 fewer runs
2) 1b: Ort (or platoon) = 12 runs more than Klesko/Aurilia
3) 2b: replacing Durham with dirt = 16 more runs
4) SS: Omar (probably bounces back and probably produces) 10 more runs
5) 3b: Mr. consistency, no change
6) LF: loss of Bonds = 25 fewer runs
7) healthy ('08) Roberts, Davis, Lewis, Schierholtz = 22 more runs than injured Roberts, Winn and misc. Net offensive gain = +27 runs.
This is not a promise, this is an outline of what is possible, with a reasonable amount of luck ( unlike this year, which was unbelievably unlucky)

[September 15, 2007 3:20 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Giant Escape said

Vizquel is easy to like, fun to watch and improves the outlook of everyone including fans. He makes baseball fun! But baseball sense.... ummm. Figure that our pitching is solid and even our current bullpen will make an impressive improvement next year... that leaves us with short and 3rd open...Keeping Vizquel is perfect for my proposal as good defence will be key if we go young and fast. One run games will be common as there's no way for us to become high scoring next year... Vizquel can still run a bit, bunts well, may surprise us with a good hitting year, and is still winning gold gloves! Sooooo I say we trade for Tejada... (we have enough young pitching and we're overloaded with fast outfilders in the minors- I think he'll come cheaper then he's worth) he can play 3rd... has one year left... he's on the market... Then bring in the speed... Lewis, Davis, Schierholtz, Roberts and yes Bonds- (the distraction stuff is nearly over- he's mellowing, he still can hit, his defense isn't as bad a everyone thinks, he deserves to retire here, he's still one of the most interesting at-bats in baseball, we don't have to expect a 120 games, he's destined for a ring). Not only that... but wouldn't the irony just kill Sabean if Bonds gets a ring with young talent all around him. Chose your back up catcher, Ortmieier/Klesco at first, Fransen/Durham 2nd, Vizquel Short, Tejada 3rd... We gotta release Rich as much as I appreciate him or keep him and release Klesko? So we gotta trade Wynn and keep Ryan or Rich... this gives us youth, speed, vetran presence, good defense and enough unkowns with the youth to just belive as long as we hover around 500 until late in the season.... We also have plenty of speed, arms, and fill in talent in the minors if we actually use it strategically... Velez, Timpner, etc. I could be excited about that lineup. Hell, look what the Marlins did to us a few years ago with some young talent, good arms and a few vetrans... ya just never know.

[September 15, 2007 1:55 PM]  |  link  |  reply
green apron monkey said

(Goes out to buy album!)

[September 15, 2007 2:07 PM]  |  link  |  reply
green apron monkey said

Okay . ..

Let's start with the cold water. Adding Miguel Tejada is not going to make this team a contender. We aren't in that 80-85 win category where a big star might make a difference.

Shortstop is one of the hardest positions to fill, and it's unlikely that other organizations will want to part with young, talented shortstops AT ALL, much less cheaply.

We also have an extremely young pitching staff. It seems to me that having a good defense behind these young pitchers will be a way to keep their delicate psyches intact through what is going to be a tough year. Vizquel and Feliz are cheap, good defenders and not really blocking anyone (yet) who is part of the long term plan. I say resign them.

Klesko, Durham, Roberts and Winn, are replaceable by guys who might just be part of the next good Giants team. It's not easy to move players like these, so I wouldn't be surprised if 2 of those four would still be on the team next year.

[September 15, 2007 3:18 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Giant Escape said

I would have to disagree... I"m sure obsessivegiantscompulsive can run the stats but I'll bet our current bullpen stats vs. earlier in the year would support close to 80-85 wins and with a proven RBI guy in the middle and some of our young talent coming around... it would at least be interesting. A guy like Tejeda could bring about the confidence that make the rookies excel. The Birds were rumored to be trying to dump Tejeda reasonably cheap earlier in the year, he's not that young anymore and he's under contract for two more years at 13 mil., so he's a possibility in a market that doesn't show much that's affordable for next year.

[September 15, 2007 3:38 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Evan said

I'm not crazy about the album, but damn, "Myriad Harbour" is a great song.

[September 16, 2007 12:12 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Boof said

I just don't see how anyone can say that a team with essentially the same core group of players that has really sucked for the last 3 seasons is, all of a sudden, not going to suck again next year and attributes their suckitude to being unlucky.

[September 17, 2007 2:52 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Giant Escape said

Because... the bullpen has improved and I believe will continue to improve... The starting pitching, as you have pointed out many times will continue to improve... and a mix of young players with speed has the potential to change the dynamics of the entire team...we need a few guys who can hit the gaps, like Tejada and let the kids run. What the hell fun is reality if you aren't happen with it...Last I checked Giants have't lost a game in 08.
S

[September 17, 2007 12:42 PM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive said

Frank, the only reason Ochoa didn't get more ABs is because he was injured mid-year. He was hitting pretty well when he got injured and ended up the season pretty well overall.

I don't see how you can say that Ortmeier will deliver more runs than Klesko/Aurilia. He's basically unproven, struggling in the upper minors, but doing well this year. Maybe teams figure him out, like they figured out Niekro who started out even better, and then he's gone.

I also don't see how you can say that Vizquel will bounce back at over 40 years old. True, Ted Williams and Bonds did bounce back after 40, but most hitters who declined greatly - and Vizquel declined greatly this year, he couldn't even hit his recent worse performances in any of the months he has played this season - at an advanced age, it was a sign that the end is near, not that he'll bounce back.

And I also don't see how we gain 16 runs by replacing Durham or gain 22 runs in the OF when you are playing unproven youngsters.

That's why Sabean and other contending teams go for vets, they are reasonably certain to hit certain performance levels whereas young players aren't. It is incorrect to assume that there will be any net gain when playing young unproven players.

But yeah, IF they produce like you say, then the Giants might contend. But even if they do produce, I think the Padres are still ahead of us in 2008 and we will fall short, though I think .500 is certainly within reach. We should worry less about being competitive and more about developing our prospects and figuring out who can play and who can't.

[September 17, 2007 3:24 PM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive said

I think that short of adding A-Rod, adding any other player would be a waste of (development) time and money. 2008 should be a year of figuring out which young players are worth keeping and which aren't, among the position players, and another year of growth for Cain and Lincecum.

I think, barring injury, we are set at pitching with the two of them from 2009-2011, assuming that everything starts clicking for the two of them in 2008 and they can consistently be dominating.

Meanwhile, we need to play the prospects we got and not sign or trade for players who are good but not great. Tejeda was once great but I don't think he'll be the difference maker with us, so why bother and, even worse, why give up prospects for him.

A-Rod won't cost us more than a draft pick (and we should be losing a low potential 2nd round pick since the 1st should be protected) and a lot of money.

Meanwhile, play all the young guys that we can, in the OF, Frandsen, Ochoa, Ortmeier. People complain about Aurilia, but he'll be a nice backup if any of them falter and at worse would be a great utility player for us, backing up the infield.

[September 17, 2007 7:11 PM]  |  link  |  reply
trilljester said

ARod and Bonds for one season? Could we afford it?

[September 17, 2007 8:56 PM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive said

First, let me say that I doubt very much that the Giants could or would sign A-Rod. I'm only saying that he's the only player I think is worth pursuing, who could help us from 2009 on.

Also, I wouldn't sign Bonds to anything other than a relatively cheap contract. There's really no demand for him, I don't think, and he wants to play for his reasons, not the team's, so as far as I'm concerned he should accept less for the privilege of coming back to the Giants and retiring a Giant.

I'm afraid, however, that the Giants will give him a huge chunk of money to come back for a retirement/finale tour, allowing him to retire as a Giant and with 3000 hits (and now 2000 RBIs as he'll probably miss that now unless he hits a 3 run homer plus another homer.

If we don't sign anyone else, even at big money, the Giants probably can sign both, I would think, particularly if A-Rod accepts deferred salary.

[September 18, 2007 12:22 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Cyrus said

I actually wouldn't be surprised at all if the Giants tried to sign A-Rod. What would surprise me is if he left NY. I just don't see that happening, especially if they win this year.

Tejada though? Have you guys seen him lately? Definitely the definition of smoking gun re: the steroid scandal. His numbers have fallen way off and he doesn't play defense nearly as well as he used to. With the money he makes he'd have to be THE power bat in the lineup, and that would not be good.

Does anyone think Lowry could fetch Carlos Pena?