When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

09.28.2007
Sunshine Almost Always Makes me High

Forget your Red Sox-Yankees, Mets-Phillies and Cubs-Cardinals rivalries. Forget even the Giants-Dodgers. The most fascinating series of the year takes place this weekend in Denver.

The Rockies with 11 straight wins are the most improbable playoff contender this year and perhaps of the decade. Only two games back in the division and a game in the wild card race, they throw their ace Jeff Francis against Arizona’s ace Brandon Webb tonight. 

I wish I had Rocky Mountain FSN. Even if I had time tonight to watch, what are the odds of finding a bar with a TV tuned to the game?

This could be a preview of the NL West pennant race the next couple years. We all know the Giants’ situation, but I’m not so sure about San Diego, either, also facing a future with aging veterans in key positions (Giles, Cameron, Hoffman). Or for that matter the Dodgers. They have a nice nucleus of young guys (Kemp, Martin, Loney, Ethier) but have big pitching questions, not to mention a GM who might be tempted to get all veteran-savvy on us.

Arizona and Colorado also have problems, of course. But Arizona is a particularly fascinating example for Giant fans. After winning the Series in 2001, they tore everything down. Six years later, despite underperforming young hitters and a rotation (beyond Webb) full of injured or mediocre veterans (Unit, Livo, Doug Davis), the team is nearly division champion.

The Giants will spend the next couple years re-building their offense and, barring injury (knock on wood, knock on wood), should have one of the top pitching staffs in the league. If you consider 2005 the first real year of their current decline, I don’t think it will take until six years from now — ie, 2011 — for this team to be competitive again. My guess: 2009. I’ll bet Magowan & Co. think that, too, which is why Sabean’s extension doesn’t go farther.

***

Little bits of sunshine to take into October:

* Kevin Frandsen in September: .387 / .426 / .468
* Kevin Correia in six starts: 35.2 IP / 2.01 ERA / 2 HR / 11 BB / 26 K
* Tyler Walker: In only 14 games, he’s got the 5th best WXRL on the team (.63)
* Brian Wilson: In only 23 games, he’s got the 2nd best WXRL on the team (1.71). An interesting point of comparison: the toast of the Bronx, Joba Chamberlain, has thrown one inning more than Wilson and has a slightly higher WXRL (1.80). Chamberlain has twice the number of Ks and is three years younger, sure, but they’ve done essentially the same good job. One thing worries me about Wilson: if he throws 98 with a nasty cutter and 90–MPH slider, why doesn’t he strike out more batters? 
* The Dodgers aren’t going to the playoffs.



Also on the Network:



[September 28, 2007 3:10 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Boof said

I think 2009 would be a very optimistic goal as far as the Giants' contention hopes go. In order for that to happen, they would've had to have some youngsters in place ready to step up in 2008 to gain experience at the ML level. Unless the Giants' trade for these youngsters this off-season, it's very unlikely that 2009 is a realistic goal for contention. I'm thinking that 2010 is really the earliest that it might happen and that is only if they make a series of very good personnel decisions.

[September 28, 2007 3:18 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

Note I didn't say "in contention," I said "competitive." I left myself some wiggle room. I agree that it's a longshot to contend for a playoff spot in 2009, but I think the team can be competitive. OK, if you force me to define terms, I'll say competitive = at least .500 with a lot of close games, somewhere in the range of what the Mariners, Braves or Twins have done this year.

[September 28, 2007 5:44 PM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive said

2009 is not optimistic. Cain should be an established ace by then and Lincecum should be ace-like that year at the latest (barring injury of course). Zito should be able to pitch at least as well as a middle of rotation guy (which he basically did this season). Lowry has been performing like a #2, peripherals or not, if he is still around. At worse, somebody among Sanchez, Correia, and Misch should be able to pitch as poorly as any other team's #4/5 pitchers do. We will have a great rotation and won't need a great offense to win a lot of games.

I'm going to root for the Rox to sweep the D-backs and perhaps push them out of the playoffs. That would make me happy.

I'm also rooting for the Padres to get swept by the Brewers and the Cubs to be swept by the Reds plus the Mets and Phillies winning enough to make the playoffs.

That would mean the Rockies make the playoffs with the Brewers, Mets and Phillies, and the D-backs and Cubs would be shoved out of the playoffs in the final days of the season.

And, of course, BEAT LA!!!

[September 28, 2007 6:35 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Boof said

I'm sorry, but I beg to differ. You can't just win with pitching. That point has been verly clearly brought home the last couple of years......Giants get decent pitching, but can't muster enough offense to win games.

Good pitching is important...there is no question about that. However, there is no way that the Giants offense, as currently constructed, will be able to be competitive in 2009 without a major infusion of young offensive talent in 2008. There is no way that the Lewis', Davis', Schierholtz' & Ortmeiers' of the baseball world are going to make this team competitive.

[September 28, 2007 6:47 PM]  |  link  |  reply
kenshin said

The value of pitching/defense and offense has actually been measured. Because I am currently drunk, I am to lazy to find the article; however, I believe it comes out to something like 51% pitching/defense and 49% offense.

[September 29, 2007 11:02 AM]  |  link  |  reply
bigO said

" Because I am currently drunk, I am to lazy to find the article"

TREEEEEEEEEEmendous.

[September 29, 2007 5:50 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Anonymous said

Regarding Wilson, I believe I heard one of the guys on KNBR (can't remember who) mention that he had talked to Brian earlier that day. He said that Wilson seemed very confident and that he wasn't concentrating solely on strikeouts, like when he was first called up, but on getting quick outs, especially ground balls early in the count. Sure enough, Wilson got the save, a 1-2-3 ninth with no strikeouts. If he's pitching to contact but bearing down when he needs to (risp) then I'm okay with that.

[September 30, 2007 2:45 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Cyrus said

Anyone who read the notes section on the Giants page yesterday featuring Bochy's comments about the bullpen--

I'm willing to bet the Giants sign Linebrink in the offseason. Bochy will talk Sabean into signing a guy he trusts, much like the Klesko signing this year.

[October 1, 2007 8:19 AM]  |  link  |  reply
jeff d said

whether it's '09 or later, we'll be waiting on some offense 2.0. Not that it bears repeating, but the Giants rank dead last in the league, or next to last, in almost every statistical category for hitting -- and that's *with* Barry.

[October 1, 2007 4:58 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Dan said

According to the Chronicle, TBS will be broadcasting the Rockies game ce soir.

[October 2, 2007 12:39 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

the key to 2009 is what Sabean gets back in trade this winter for Lowry (or Correia, or Sanchez...). Given the premium placed on young starting pitchers, the giants should be able to snag a budding young star who with luck will anchor the lineup in 09.