When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

10.12.2007
How Close?

As the D-Backs and Rockies battle to get to the World Series, the feel-good story line says congratulate these teams, for they have built themselves by saving money and rolling their own. America loves a bootstrap story: young, scrappy, energetic, homegrown. The Chron taps into that sentiment with an article that charts the building blocks of each team. The summary:

On their respective 25–man rosters, the D-Backs have 10 players they drafted, the Rockies 11. Each has four Latin American-scouted players, putting their rosters at more than half “homegrown.”

And the Giants? We don’t know exactly the composition of the team’s next 25–man roster, but if 2008 were to start tomorrow, it could look like this:

PITCHERS
Cain, Lincecum, Lowry, Zito, Correia, Sanchez, Wilson, Walker, Misch, Kline, Messenger, Chulk

POSITION PLAYERS
Molina, G. Rodriguez, Aurilia, Ortmeier, Frandsen, Durham, Vizquel, Feliz, Lewis, Roberts, Davis, Schierholtz, Winn

That’s not an offense I’m hoping for, mind you, but that roster totals 13 players the team either drafted or signed out of Latin America. More than half “homegrown.”

Yes, yes, I know. Pedro Feliz is not Troy Tulowitzki, Justin Upton, or any other instant-impact Rockie or D-Back who hasn’t started shaving yet.

As we all know, the Giants impact draftees are on the pitching staff, something Martin the OGC always takes pains to point out because Giants critics tend only to focus on hitters. Critics are right to criticize, but ignoring the pitching side makes the situation feel more dire than it really is. One pitcher, Matt Cain, profiles pretty damn close to the D-Backs’ best pitcher, as noted here, and Lincecum could be even better (knock on wood). If Brian Wilson next year can come close to what he did this September, he’ll be a top-tier closer. That’s three high-impact draftees.

I don’t doubt the D-Backs’ young homegrown players will be a force to reckon with, but with all the gasbagging about their scrappy energetic blah blah blah, it’s interesting to note that their hitting MVP was a 30–year-old scrap-heap free agent, Eric Byrnes. Their other valuable hitters were Mark Reynolds, a non-prospect dredged out of their farm system (i.e., a matter of luck on the D-Backs part), and two young guys acquired in trades for expensive veterans (Hudson and Young). Young wasn’t even that good—don’t let the 30 HRs fool you. Conor Jackson was merely adequate, Chad Tracy got injured and displaced, and other young “stars” were terrible, namely Stephen Drew, Justin Upton and Carlos Quentin.

Again, I don’t doubt many of them will improve and that the D-Backs will contend for the playoffs for years to come, but what they have this year really isn’t much different than what the Giants will have next year. Think of Matt Cain as Brandon Webb, Tim Lincecum better than anyone else on the D-Backs staff, and imagine Brian Wilson fronting a bullpen that’s nearly as strong as what Arizona has this year. It’s not difficult to imagine. Now imagine the handful of Giants “youngsters” — Lewis, Davis, Ortmeier, Frandsen, Schierholtz — collectively posting similar productivity to the D-Backs youngsters this year. Again, it’s not a stretch given how bad Drew and Quentin were.

Add a free agent and an impact bat via trade, and there’s no reason the 2008 Giants — with as much luck as the D-Backs had this year — could at least break .500. Unless Sabean botches the trade(s) or signs Shea Hillenbrand to a multi-year contract, I’ll save my pissing and moaning for the games next year.* There’s already great fear Sabean will try to sign Torii Hunter. An expensive contract for Hunter wouldn’t necessarily curl me into the fetal position; it’s all about context. If Hunter enters while Dave Roberts and the $13 million he’s due exits, then hey.

The Giants just e-mailed to let me know 2008 season ticket renewal is not far away. Sucker for punishment? Maybe. But I’m all in, and anyone who wants to bet me that the Giants will lose more than 91 games next year, you know where to find me.

*Disclaimer: All rights to piss and moan are hereby reserved by owner of blog and any future instances of doing so do not constitute a breach of contract with said blog’s readers.



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[October 12, 2007 6:04 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Tom Clifton said

The Giants just e-mailed to let me know 2008 season ticket renewal is not far away. Sucker for punishment? Maybe. But I’m all in, and anyone who wants to bet me that the Giants will lose more than 91 games next year, you know where to find me.

Hopefully your email wasn't like the Letter that

[October 12, 2007 6:16 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Tom Clifton said

The Giants just e-mailed to let me know 2008 season ticket renewal is not far away. Sucker for punishment? Maybe. But I’m all in, and anyone who wants to bet me that the Giants will lose more than 91 games next year, you know where to find me.

Hopefully your email wasn't like the Letter that SJ Giants fans got. It informed us that season ticket prices were rising 81% to $770. Thanks for being a long time season ticket holder and all of that.

While I am sure that the number looks cheap to SF Giants season ticket holders, remember we are talking about a single A team playing in a facility that was built in 1942.

I don't mind a price increase, we have seen Kevin, Nate, Fred, Jonathan, Tim, etc in the last three years, but 81%?

[October 12, 2007 6:20 PM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive said

I would also add that Brandon Webb should be considered lucky as well. The year he came up, he was so highly thought of that none of the prospect publications/articles I read even bothered to mention him. NONE! And most of these saw fit to mention 20-30 players who they thought had the potential to make a dent on the MLB roster that season or in future seasons. NONE!

And that's the thing that bothers me, they ignore the pitching side like that's nothing, but then crow about the D-backs when Webb was their only real good starter from the prospect ranks, and he's 29 next year, so he really hasn't been a prospect for 2-3 seasons now, and the bullpen, well, none of them really did anything before, they've either been waiting for them to do something good or just came up.

Then, some dismiss Lowry, say, as not really being good, even though he's been good (under 4 ERA) for many years now, but pooh-pooh the fact that none of the young D-back hitters have an OPS+ signficantly greater than 100.

Go to any of the teams with great young hitters and tell me their rotation couldn't use a Lowry? Or that Lowry would be one of that team's better starters?

[October 12, 2007 6:44 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Boof said

Well, there's some spin for you. One major thing that you neglect to mention........Brandon Webb is a Cy Young winner. Lowry....not so much.

[October 12, 2007 7:07 PM]  |  link  |  reply
BIGo said

"Think of Matt Cain as Brandon Webb

2004 Webb- 7 and 16, 3.59 era

2007 Cain- 7 and 16,
3.65 era


(anybody around here going to see Springsteen in Oakland on the 25th or 26th, I'm flying down from Seattle).

[October 13, 2007 11:17 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Chris said

OGC,

You aren't really going to use ERA as an indicator that Lowry is a good pitcher are you? You're better than that.

Lowry was good...in 2005 but since then his ability to strike out guys has plummeted. He got hurt 2006 and had a poor year. And in 2007, he had another poor year with additional injury concerns. His bad control, injury concerns, and decreasing strike out rates don't paint a pretty picture for his future.

The 2005 Lowry was promising, the 2006-2007 versions? Not so much.

[October 14, 2007 1:35 AM]  |  link  |  reply
giantsrainman said

Chris,

ZIPs too paints a good picture for Lowry in 2008 as again an above average NL Starting Pitcher.

Unfortunately, it is no where near as optimistic about the Giants 2008 Offense.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/2008_zips_projections_san_francisco_giants/

[October 14, 2007 4:38 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Chris said

I'm a fan of projection systems but even I'll admit that Lowry's projection looks pretty optimistic.

I guess we'll have to wait and see. I'll be interested to see what PECOTA and the other systems have to say about Noah.

[October 15, 2007 2:32 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Mark Reynold's Dad said

Mark Reynolds was not a non-prospect dredged out of their farm system. He is/was a legit prospect.

[October 15, 2007 3:25 AM]  |  link  |  reply
giantsrainman said

Mark Reynold's Dad:

I somehow have my doubts that that is who you really are. But, frankly it really doesn't matter if you think he was a prospect while I think he wasn't. What matters is that he is showing every sign of being a real quality major league starter. He does need to work on his defense though.