When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

10.04.2007
Pedro's Defense

After reading this post, I started writing about how Pedro Feliz’s defense might make up for his abysmal offense, but I just can’t do it. If he were batting ninth and the rest of the lineup was filled with the 1934 American League All-Stars, fine. Let him pick it and leave the lumber to others.

But we’re talking Your 2008 San Francisco Sand Gnats. Re-sign him and he’ll end up batting clean-up. He’s good with the glove, but not that good.

How bad is Pedro with the bat? If you’re newfangled, check his VORP: -2.3. That’s ridiculously bad. Even Eric Chavez and Scott Rolen, who had all-time career-worst years and could barely stay on the field, were in positive VORP territory. Feliz had a roughly career-average year and was worse than a warm body dredged up from triple-A. Jack Hannahan had a better VORP than Feliz. Jack Who? Exactly.

If you’re oldfangled, please note that among 21 regular third basemen, Feliz was 18th in batting average, dead last in on-base percentage, and despite his 20 home runs, 15th in slugging. Chone Frickin Figgins slugged higher than Pedro.

Giants 2008. Third base. Frandsen? Aurilia? Adrian Beltre? Mike Lowell? Fred Lewis? Carrot Top? Discuss.



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[October 4, 2007 1:52 PM]  |  link  |  reply
trilljester said

I didn't even want Feliz back for another year in 2007.

Since Durham will be back for another year at 2B (nobody is dumb enough to trade for him), might as well put Frandsen over there at 3B and let him get 450+ ABs in the majors.

[October 4, 2007 1:56 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Chris said

He's an elite defender but a turrrrible hitter. I've been pushing for Justin Leone. He's another non-prospect but he had a decent year in Fresno, hitting (.269/.383/.498), surely he could be as valuable as Feliz and for much less money.

[October 4, 2007 2:09 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

Justin Leone -- I was pushing for him earlier in the year then forgot about him. That's not just a decent year, that's very good. And if you weight OBP higher than SLG, it's better than anything Feliz ever did in the minors. Leone also stole 26 of 27 bases this year.

[October 4, 2007 2:22 PM]  |  link  |  reply
BawLa said

Wrong wrong wrong...IMO.

Tell me why Vizquel gets a free pass for his bad offense and Feliz does not. Tell me why Vizquel gets treated like an emperor and Feliz gets treated like a pauper.

To me they are virtually the same thing at different positions. Vizquel has better OBP, Feliz has better SLG, but other than that, they are both bottom of the order guys, not main parts of any lineup. They are the types of players that every team needs defensively.

You don't re-sign Feliz to be the power hitter. You re-sign him to help with our pitcher's statistics, because pitching is our strength, and we should support it. Improving our pitcher's statistics is what defense does, and by keeping solid defense at a very important part of the infield will only help to raise our pitchers value and therefore give us better trading options in the near future.

I'm not suggesting that we re-sign Feliz for more than 2 years. 1-2 years won't kill us at all because we have no viable prospects for 3B that could make it within the next year or so, and the free agent market is less than pallatable at 3B until when Miggy is available. (I looked at Cot's and found that Miggy is a free agent next year?? Is this right?? I thought originally that he was available 2 years from now?? Can anyone verify??) Either way, you structure a deal that allows you to go after Miggy when he is available. If Feliz wants 2 years, and Cabrera is available next year, then you give Feliz a little more money for the first year and tack on a team option for the 2nd.

The other main reason why we should re-sign Feliz is because he has shown better plate discipline. He is improving. It may be slow improvement, but it is still there. If this guy puts together one SOLID season, his value will go through the roof and that would really help our situation.

My plan - resign Feliz for 2 years with a TO for year 2, and try to get A-Rod. If we fail at A-Rod, save the money for Texiera next year. If we fail at both A-Rod and Texiera, then the money will be there for Miggy. And if we have the money and the need for Miggy, Feliz won't be in the way.

You have to sign either Feliz or Vizquel. And I lean towards Feliz because with Omar, you don't know if you are going to get the 2006 version, or the 2007 version, or -GULP- even worse. And as I have said before, we cannot lose Pedro's 20 HR after losing Barry's 30 HR unless if we definitely add A-Rod's 50 HR.

[October 4, 2007 2:33 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Chris said

Bawla,

"The other main reason why we should re-sign Feliz is because he has shown better plate discipline. He is improving. It may be slow improvement, but it is still there. If this guy puts together one SOLID season, his value will go through the roof and that would really help our situation."

I disagree strongly with this. Feliz's plate discipline hasn't improved, he's just making more contact which had reduced his K's but he's still not taking walks at all.

I just recently did a post on Feliz on my site and I'll cross-post this about his "hitting program" that he undertook.

"A big storyline going into the 2007 offseason was that Pedro was going to undertake a massive hitting program to try and help his hitting game. He was going to try and focus on hitting the ball to RF instead of trying to pull everything like he always has. Has it helped Feliz any? Maybe a little. His K% is the lowest it’s been since he became a starter and it’s helped boost his K/BB rate. Has it paid off in his stats? Not really, Feliz is about on par with his previous years. His OPS+ this year is 80 and before the “hitting program” it was 79 last year. Feliz is still the same hitter. He’s not striking out as much but he’s not walking any more (33 walks last year to 29 this year). This year the league average NL 3B is hitting (.281/.348/.458) and Feliz is obviously under those numbers. Despite perceived power, Feliz just isn’t a good hitting third basemen."

He's virtually the same hitter this year as he was last year. Add in his age to the mix, and he's not going to get any better. What you see: Great fielder, poor hitter. Is what you're going to get. He's not going to figure out how to become a better hitter at age 32+

[October 4, 2007 4:08 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

I'll second what Chris says, and I'll address this question:

>Tell me why Vizquel gets a free pass for his bad offense and Feliz does not.

Two reasons:

1) Except for this year, Omar has had pretty good OBP skills. He's inconsistent, but he has the capability of posting a .350 OBP. Feliz can't crack .300. And his SLG isn't very good either.

2) Feliz plays at a position where it should be easier to find good hitters. That's changed somewhat over the years, what with the rise of big power-hitting shortstops, but the rule of thumb still applies.

[October 4, 2007 4:54 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Boof said

"My plan - resign Feliz for 2 years with a TO for year 2"


NO NO NO NO NO NO

A THOUSAND TIMES.......NO!

[October 4, 2007 6:38 PM]  |  link  |  reply
jim e said

Along with Glenallen Hill, Pedro Feliz has been perhaps the most frustrating everyday Giant hitter in the past 20 years.

If for no other reason, you get rid of him to make a clean break with the last couple of shitty years. He can go try to pull outside breaking balls at his heels somewhere else.

[October 4, 2007 7:15 PM]  |  link  |  reply
bigO said

YO Adrian!!

[October 4, 2007 9:57 PM]  |  link  |  reply
DC said

good lord no... If it is broke, get rid of it. He's just not that good.

[October 4, 2007 11:33 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Prospect Hound said

I think everyone is being too visceral here. Lets see if we can frame the dfiscussion a little better. Vizquel and Feliz are both excellent defenders for thier positions. Vizquel has an OPS just above .600 with a hot last weekend. Feliz has an OPS just above .700 with a hot last weekend. Questions to start with: What's the average OPS for starters at this position and how far are Omar and Pedro below that figure? How many OPS points is excellent defense worth over Good defense? over average defense? Moving back into the subjective, I ASSUME both players to be 100 OPS points below average for their positions and view the diference betwen excellent and good defense to be worth less than that. So, are good defenders with average or better offense available? Discuss.

[October 5, 2007 2:31 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Chris said

Prospect Hound,

Here's some numbers for you:

Average 2007 NL SS - .279/.337/.420 .757 OPS
Average 2007 NL 3B - .280/.348/.456 .804 OPS

Omar 2007 - .246/.305/.316 .621 OPS
Omar Career - .274/.340/.357 .697 OPS

Pedro 2007 - .253/.290/.418 .708 OPS
Pedro Career - .252/.288/.433 .721 OPS

Omar - 136 points under the average NL SS
Feliz - 96 points under the average NL 3B

As you can see, both Feliz and Omar were below average hitters for their positions in 2007.

If I was Sabean I would probably let Feliz go and let someone like Justin Leone and Rich Aurilia share 3B or heck, just give Leone the shot to win the position. Like I stated above, I think he'll do no worse than Feliz and be cheaper.

There just isn't anything available in the FA market for SS or 3B that Sabean could legitimately use to fill one of these positions. If Feliz were to hit the FA, he would probably be the best the 2nd 3B option available. That should tell you how bad the market is. It's full of guys like Mike Lamb, Greg Norton, and Russell Branyan. The best would be Mike Lowell (all the A-Rod nonsense withstanding) but I'm very leery of him because of his age and the fact that he's played half his games in Fenway, essentially pumping up his offensive stats. He'll be expensive and old, not a ideal solution.

Shortstop is even worse, David Eckstein is probably the cream of the crop and I use that phrase loosely. Because the FA SS market is so weak (even weaker in comparison to the 3B market) I'd argue to bring back Omar on a 1 year deal over bringing back Feliz on 2+ years. In my opinion, Kevin Frandsen isn't a shortstop and the next ready group of guys that can play short, are all minor league journeymen in AAA. The three candidates are Ivan Ochoa (24 but a history of weak hitting), Luis Figeroa (33), and Tomas de la Rosa (29). All three of them profile more as utility men than a starting SS. I think you've almost got to go with Omar for another year and hope that he can bounce back to something near career levels. Believe it or not, I have more faith in Omar bouncing back than I do Feliz becoming a better hitter. That might be foolish of me but its the way I think. At least in the 2nd half Omar approached his career numbers. He hit (.259/.329/.342) which isn't stellar but its better than his first half of (.235/.284/.295)

It's time to let Feliz walk (Hah, get it?)

[October 5, 2007 10:47 AM]  |  link  |  reply
jim e said

I'm sorry, but some player discussions don't come down to OPS. The giants have not been a very good team with Feliz playing a starting role. Obviously, it's not his fault alone that they suck. But the question is: Can he significantly contribute to the Giants becoming more competitive next year, or in subsequent years? MAYBE it would be different if he were a game changing defensive player and the giants were stacked at every other position. The 93 team carried Darren Lewis, the 87-89 teams Uribe, etc al. Those teams could afford a light hit, good field player. This one can't. At this point I would give my left nut for even a 50 year old Charlie Hayes over this guy. Not a scientific reaction, I grant you. But alas, that's what makes baseball fun/frustrating.

[October 5, 2007 12:51 PM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive said

Vizquel gets a push because he's actually has been a valuable offensive SS for many years now, particularly in terms of OBP. Feliz was never even an average offensive 3B, though he was close and his OBP is abysmal.

In addition, Vizquel is only asking for one year whereas Feliz very publicly stated that he wants a multi-year contract and his kids can now go to school anywhere now. That public statement gave me the biggest laugh I've had about a Giants player's public demand since Aurilia wanted a 4 year, I think $32M contract.

Ivan Ochoa is suppose to be a slick fielder, though, and in spite of his poor history of hitting, he was able to raise it a notch this season and he is only 24 I think. So if Vizquel wants more than $1-2M, I would just give Ochoa the job and see how he does.

And if you do that, you may as well start Frandsen at 3B and see how he does as a starter offensively.

Unless we make a huge acquisition, I still think we should just kiss off 2008 and prepare for 2009. The NL West is getting too tough to compete with just a .500 team, the bar has been raised and we need to rise, but we cannot do it during the off-season unless Sabean can fleece a team or two in dealing our pitching or catch the big Kahuna.

[October 5, 2007 1:19 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Boof said

Frandsen should not be starting at 3B. Period.

The only reason he gets a chance to start is to see if he can make it as a 2B, as that is the only position he should be playing. Starting at 3B retards that assessment period. The Giants need to either eat Durham's contract and ship him out or they should sit him and let Frandsen play and get his 450-500 ABs.

[October 5, 2007 3:07 PM]  |  link  |  reply
BawLa said

Lets be clear about this - Frandsen has no business at 3B. People complain about Feliz's offensive #'s at 3B...do they somehow think Frandsen will produce more than Feliz? People complain about Frandsen not having the range or the arm to play SS...do they somehow think this will not be the case at 3B? I am one of the biggest Frandsen supporters, I believed in him when he was batting worse than Durham. But the point is Kevin belongs at 2B.

So of all the people who say NAY to Feliz, only one has actually suggested a replacement. And that person is Chris who suggested Leone. On this website, I made a post a couple weeks back about potential platoon options with our cheap, underexperienced players. I listed Leone at 3B with his #'s being much better vs. LHP. So lets make a comparison, because that is what this Feliz debate is all about, or at least what it should be about - comparing him to other available 3B.

Leone is 30 and right handed, Feliz is 32 and right handed - a virtual wash. Leone hit 20 HR and 60 RBI at the AAA level in a hitters league, Feliz hit 20 HR and 80 RBI at the MLB level - advantage Feliz. Leone stole 26 of 27 bases, Feliz couldn't steal free condoms from planned parenthood - advantage Leone. Leone had 11 errors, Feliz had 11 errors - advantage Feliz (because he is basically the best defensive 3Bman in the NL, he did it at the MLB level, but who knows how many errors Justin had in the OF) I think that point is up for debate. Leone would play for 1 year at the league minimum, Feliz will cost roughly $6M/yr and wants 2 years - advantage Leone.

Of course there are more things to analyze, but at this point I know nothing of Leone's swing, and therefore cannot make specific comparisons to Feliz. Irregardless, the main thing we need to know is if Leone can pick-it at 3B. If he can, then I would say 100% go for it. If not, then I would say bring back Feliz.

It is not like we would be signing Feliz to a contract that would conflict with our rebuild. And considering his defensive prowess, I have already argued that a key defensive player like Pedro will only help our rebuild.


ELM - you say that Vizquel gets a free pass because it is just one bad year when he was at or near .300 in years past. But considering that he is 40 years old, and considering that there is usually a year where the player's statistics drop as players approach their 40's that is indicative of the end of their career, I would say that Omar is just about done.

And how can you be that unsatisfied with Feliz's slugging considering he plays most of his games in pitchers parks? Look at Pedro's splits. He sluggs .446 away from home, and many of the away games are versus divisional rivals with big ballparks and good pitchers. Roughly 20 HR/80 RBI for years with gold glove defense...I can't just throw that away so easily.

[October 5, 2007 3:11 PM]  |  link  |  reply
The GM said

Do you think that Beltre or Lowell would be the guy to build the lineup around?

[October 5, 2007 4:50 PM]  |  link  |  reply
BawLa said

Lowell is basically Pedro Feliz with more OBP away from Fenway. So he is not worth twice the money, and he is definitely not worth more than 2 years.

If we were to take a chance on a guy like Beltre I would be cool with that, but as long as he came cheap - ie, maybe Hennessey for Beltre and cash. But that seems highly unlikely.

Why would Seattle want to move him? He is young and productive. Maybe they would do it if they had a kid that was ready to take over, and they needed a little extra $$ relief after the big Ichiro signing. But then again they will have Sexson coming off the books next year so that should help their $$ situation.

[October 5, 2007 5:04 PM]  |  link  |  reply
jim e said

I don't think the depth of the giants problem (crappy bullpen, crappy bench, crappy everyday players, potentially good starting pitching) can be solved by keeping Pedro or letting him go. In other words, it really is of no consequence to success or failure. Arguing this point is like bugging a doctor about a hangnail while both your feet turn gangrenous.

[October 6, 2007 4:48 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Tyler said

Russell Branyan anyone?

I think he's worth a chance. High OBP, passable defense. cheap as hell. right around league average ops-wise.