I don’t put much stock in the public pronouncements of Brian Sabean. The man is a master, deliberate or not, of the hedged obfuscatory gobbledygook. He makes Bill Clinton’s “depends on what the meaning of ‘Is’ is” sound like a brave statement of resounding purpose.
But yesterday Sabes chatted, so today we dissect, with as much as we can glean about next year’s roster positions. Kremlinologists, stand back and be awestruck.
Sabes: [Omar] Vizquel's situation will be addressed shortly, as we're considering his talent vs. the free agent field. But we still think he can contribute on the field and in the clubhouse for our organization.
ELM says: The free-agent field sucks. Barring outrageous contract demands, Vizquel will be a Giant next year. Pencil him in as starting SS and batting 8th.
Sabes: …we understand that we will need to address the need for a middle-of-the-order presence. We'll thoroughly explore the trade and free agent markets, knowing that our pitching depth may engage us in trade talks for such a player.
Logical. The Giants won’t be able to trade Noah Lowry for Miguel Cabrera straight-up, but they should be able to get a budding star with near-term potential for 20 to 30 HRs without giving away the house.
Sabes: Kevin [Frandsen] will probably be given a chance to be an everyday player with a position to be determined.
“Probably” and “chance” are two hedges in one sentence. Make that three, with the position to be determined. But that’s OK. Where he plays most is likely contingent on whether the Giants can replace Pedro Feliz with a middle-of-the-order third baseman and whether anyone is nuts enough to trade for Ray Durham. Pencil Frandsen in as starting 2B and batting 2nd or 7th.
Sabes: Producing home-grown players is going to be one of our main goals in the future. Of the 35 players on the big-league roster at the conclusion of the season, 18 were products of the Giants farm system.
I counted. He’s right.
Sabes: From what we saw from [Brian] Wilson, Tyler Walker and Brad Hennessey over the last month of the season, we feel like we have the building blocks for the start of our 2008 bullpen.
Encouraging. Wilson is definitely the closer to start next year. Kudos to the Giants for reclaiming Walker post-surgery and giving him a second chance. Hennessey faded as the closer down the stretch, but Sabean is right to list him as a bullpen asset for next year. There’s speculation that he’ll spend big bucks on proven bullpen vets this winter. If so, it’ll probably be on a lefty to upgrade from Kline/Taschner (assuming Sanchez will compete for a starting spot). I’m OK with that, as long as it’s not truly big bucks. But give the Giants credit for developing Wilson at the right pace and for saying good things about Hennessey despite the late-season meltdown.
Sabes: The Giants played the most games decided by two runs or less in the Majors this season (94). Many of these contests were decided late in the game and with an improved bullpen, we can turn those numbers around.
Well, yeah, and with an improved offense many of these contests wouldn’t have been as close in the first place. But Sabean is, perhaps unwittingly, leaning on a sabermetric rule of thumb: teams that lose a lot of close games aren’t much different from teams that win a lot of close games. Improve the hitting a little, improve the pitching a little, and some of those losses turn to wins. Problem is, Bonds’s departure requires a huge offensive hole to fill, not just a little tweak here and there.
Sabes (when asked who is the 2007 Giants MVP): Bengie Molina.
I like Bengie. You like Bengie. We all like Bengie. It’s fun to watch him jiggle when he runs. He’s “clutch.” But he’s not the MVP. He doesn’t get on base, he has defensive problems (ask Jon Miller about Bengie’s problems catching balls above his head), and he’s a prime double-play candidate. Barry Bonds was the offensive MVP, and Matt Cain was the pitching MVP. So Sabes is saying one of three things here: 1) He values team leadership over actual run-producing skills. 2) He’s worried that Molina is frustrated and wants to pat him on the back a little extra. 3) “Molina is extremely valuable to anyone looking for a starting catcher. My phone lines are open.”
Sabes: [Dan] Ortmeier has impressed everybody with how quickly he's been able to pick up the first-base position. Hopefully, he'll develop the power desired from a corner infielder.
At least he admits a corner infielder should exhibit power. If Rich Aurilia is the Opening Day first baseman next year, print out this quote, wrap it around a soggy garlic fry, and throw it at Sabean’s head. Ortmeier isn’t necessarily the answer, either, seeing how he also needs to develop plate discipline. A .307 major league OBP (.348 in the minors) for a guy who turns 27 next May isn’t promising. Pencil him in as a 4th OF/platoon guy.
Sabes (asked about the 5th starter slot): Correia and Sanchez will be given that opportunity.
No mention of the need to bring in a veteran presence, for what it’s worth.
Sabean: From early analysis, the free agent class will not be as strong as it has been in the past, with only a few "difference makers" potentially available. With that said, we're obviously going to look at all avenues to improve the club.
Good. Excellent. The marker is down. This free-agent class sucks. Of course he qualifies and hedges, but this is as close to Sabean will ever come to saying “We will not spend a lot on Andruw Jones’s muffler.”
Sabean: [Nate Schierholtz] obviously played well enough at the big-league level this year to be in the mix for playing time next year.
Fairly non-committal, as he should be. Eight extra-base hits and only two walks in 112 at-bats is not encouraging. Note that Sabean didn’t say, “Schierholtz recently proved his worth by hitting .300” — a sign that Sabean might understand the limited value of a corner outfielder who doesn’t have power or patience. Note: Freddie Lewis had an OBP of .378, though he played almost exclusively against RHP.
Sabean (asked if the Giants need power to compete): Frankly, the parks in our division are considered pitchers' parks. The only club in our division that has bona fide power is Colorado. As Bruce has said on occasion this season, "speed doesn't slump."
Really? Have you ever seen Juan Pierre? That’s some slumpy speed, brother. I would prefer to see this answer: “Power is great, obviously, but we don’t want to overpay for home-run hitters who do little else. Let’s first make sure we have a team that gets on base, doesn’t make outs on the bases, hits lots of line drives, and on defense takes away lots of hits to complement our young talented pitching staff. Then we’ll worry about power.”
Sabean: [Eugenio] Velez will participate in the Arizona Fall League, playing mostly second base.
Again, good. Second base is a harder defensive position to fill than outfield, where Velez clocked some time this year. Figure out if he can be decent there, and maybe he’ll steal a utility spot on next year’s roster. More likely look for him in 2009.
Great summary and commentary ELM - thanks! I still doubt that Frandsen will be the opening day 2b, unless Ray Ray finds a new home. Kind of hope they try him at 3b.
Also: I'm a little surprised that he's talking up Davis rather than Fast Freddy in the OF. I hope they give Fred and Nate a good shot to land starting positions.