I don’t put much stock in the public pronouncements of Brian Sabean. The man is a master, deliberate or not, of the hedged obfuscatory gobbledygook. He makes Bill Clinton’s “depends on what the meaning of ‘Is’ is” sound like a brave statement of resounding purpose.
But yesterday Sabes chatted, so today we dissect, with as much as we can glean about next year’s roster positions. Kremlinologists, stand back and be awestruck.
Sabes: [Omar] Vizquel's situation will be addressed shortly, as we're considering his talent vs. the free agent field. But we still think he can contribute on the field and in the clubhouse for our organization.
ELM says: The free-agent field sucks. Barring outrageous contract demands, Vizquel will be a Giant next year. Pencil him in as starting SS and batting 8th.
Sabes: …we understand that we will need to address the need for a middle-of-the-order presence. We'll thoroughly explore the trade and free agent markets, knowing that our pitching depth may engage us in trade talks for such a player.
Logical. The Giants won’t be able to trade Noah Lowry for Miguel Cabrera straight-up, but they should be able to get a budding star with near-term potential for 20 to 30 HRs without giving away the house.
Sabes: Kevin [Frandsen] will probably be given a chance to be an everyday player with a position to be determined.
“Probably” and “chance” are two hedges in one sentence. Make that three, with the position to be determined. But that’s OK. Where he plays most is likely contingent on whether the Giants can replace Pedro Feliz with a middle-of-the-order third baseman and whether anyone is nuts enough to trade for Ray Durham. Pencil Frandsen in as starting 2B and batting 2nd or 7th.
Sabes: Producing home-grown players is going to be one of our main goals in the future. Of the 35 players on the big-league roster at the conclusion of the season, 18 were products of the Giants farm system.
I counted. He’s right.
Sabes: From what we saw from [Brian] Wilson, Tyler Walker and Brad Hennessey over the last month of the season, we feel like we have the building blocks for the start of our 2008 bullpen.
Encouraging. Wilson is definitely the closer to start next year. Kudos to the Giants for reclaiming Walker post-surgery and giving him a second chance. Hennessey faded as the closer down the stretch, but Sabean is right to list him as a bullpen asset for next year. There’s speculation that he’ll spend big bucks on proven bullpen vets this winter. If so, it’ll probably be on a lefty to upgrade from Kline/Taschner (assuming Sanchez will compete for a starting spot). I’m OK with that, as long as it’s not truly big bucks. But give the Giants credit for developing Wilson at the right pace and for saying good things about Hennessey despite the late-season meltdown.
Sabes: The Giants played the most games decided by two runs or less in the Majors this season (94). Many of these contests were decided late in the game and with an improved bullpen, we can turn those numbers around.
Well, yeah, and with an improved offense many of these contests wouldn’t have been as close in the first place. But Sabean is, perhaps unwittingly, leaning on a sabermetric rule of thumb: teams that lose a lot of close games aren’t much different from teams that win a lot of close games. Improve the hitting a little, improve the pitching a little, and some of those losses turn to wins. Problem is, Bonds’s departure requires a huge offensive hole to fill, not just a little tweak here and there.
Sabes (when asked who is the 2007 Giants MVP): Bengie Molina.
I like Bengie. You like Bengie. We all like Bengie. It’s fun to watch him jiggle when he runs. He’s “clutch.” But he’s not the MVP. He doesn’t get on base, he has defensive problems (ask Jon Miller about Bengie’s problems catching balls above his head), and he’s a prime double-play candidate. Barry Bonds was the offensive MVP, and Matt Cain was the pitching MVP. So Sabes is saying one of three things here: 1) He values team leadership over actual run-producing skills. 2) He’s worried that Molina is frustrated and wants to pat him on the back a little extra. 3) “Molina is extremely valuable to anyone looking for a starting catcher. My phone lines are open.”
Sabes: [Dan] Ortmeier has impressed everybody with how quickly he's been able to pick up the first-base position. Hopefully, he'll develop the power desired from a corner infielder.
At least he admits a corner infielder should exhibit power. If Rich Aurilia is the Opening Day first baseman next year, print out this quote, wrap it around a soggy garlic fry, and throw it at Sabean’s head. Ortmeier isn’t necessarily the answer, either, seeing how he also needs to develop plate discipline. A .307 major league OBP (.348 in the minors) for a guy who turns 27 next May isn’t promising. Pencil him in as a 4th OF/platoon guy.
Sabes (asked about the 5th starter slot): Correia and Sanchez will be given that opportunity.
No mention of the need to bring in a veteran presence, for what it’s worth.
Sabean: From early analysis, the free agent class will not be as strong as it has been in the past, with only a few "difference makers" potentially available. With that said, we're obviously going to look at all avenues to improve the club.
Good. Excellent. The marker is down. This free-agent class sucks. Of course he qualifies and hedges, but this is as close to Sabean will ever come to saying “We will not spend a lot on Andruw Jones’s muffler.”
Sabean: [Nate Schierholtz] obviously played well enough at the big-league level this year to be in the mix for playing time next year.
Fairly non-committal, as he should be. Eight extra-base hits and only two walks in 112 at-bats is not encouraging. Note that Sabean didn’t say, “Schierholtz recently proved his worth by hitting .300” — a sign that Sabean might understand the limited value of a corner outfielder who doesn’t have power or patience. Note: Freddie Lewis had an OBP of .378, though he played almost exclusively against RHP.
Sabean (asked if the Giants need power to compete): Frankly, the parks in our division are considered pitchers' parks. The only club in our division that has bona fide power is Colorado. As Bruce has said on occasion this season, "speed doesn't slump."
Really? Have you ever seen Juan Pierre? That’s some slumpy speed, brother. I would prefer to see this answer: “Power is great, obviously, but we don’t want to overpay for home-run hitters who do little else. Let’s first make sure we have a team that gets on base, doesn’t make outs on the bases, hits lots of line drives, and on defense takes away lots of hits to complement our young talented pitching staff. Then we’ll worry about power.”
Sabean: [Eugenio] Velez will participate in the Arizona Fall League, playing mostly second base.
Again, good. Second base is a harder defensive position to fill than outfield, where Velez clocked some time this year. Figure out if he can be decent there, and maybe he’ll steal a utility spot on next year’s roster. More likely look for him in 2009.
Great summary and commentary ELM - thanks! I still doubt that Frandsen will be the opening day 2b, unless Ray Ray finds a new home. Kind of hope they try him at 3b.
Also: I'm a little surprised that he's talking up Davis rather than Fast Freddy in the OF. I hope they give Fred and Nate a good shot to land starting positions.
"Sabes: Producing home-grown players is going to be one of our main goals in the future. Of the 35 players on the big-league roster at the conclusion of the season, 18 were products of the Giants farm system.
I counted. He’s right."
...what he left out is that at least 14 of those 18 players basically suck.
Ortmeier didn't do that badly on the power front, a homer every 26 AB, 210 ISO, 38% XBH. And that's playing part-time, most players improve with regular playing time.
Which he did in August and September and he hit pretty nicely with more regular play:
Aug: 12 starts, 17 games, .240/.278/.480/.758
Sept: 15 starts, 19 games, .345/.373/.527/.900
Aug/Sept: 27 starts, 36 games, .295/.327/.505/.832, 4 HR in 105AB, 210 ISO, 35% XBH
That would be pretty nice hitting from the #7 spot in the lineup, probably OK in the #6 too.
Definitely a fluke year, but the Giants only averaged 4.03 runs per game with Bonds in lineup, 4.76 without (46 games). So, amazingly enough, losing Bonds from the offense benefited the team this season. Assuming the sans-Bonds lineup can continue at at least a 4.5 runs per game pace, that's still a big improvement over this year's 4.2 average.
Meanwhile, we got about as much as we were going to get out of the bullpen, though with the addition of Wilson and Walker ("Bring in the W's, Bring on the Wins"?), we should see an improvement just from their addition. Yes, it was good the Giants signed Walker, though I'm would think that he came to us first once he was released.
Good points about Velez and Hennessey. I disagree about the bullpen, I think that's a good leverage point to get bang for the buck, though as noted, Wilson/Walker is a huge improvement right there over this year. And as Sabean noted, you can't just "replace" Bonds, you just have to do things differently. I think the improved play we saw in Aug/Sept once we got Davis and Roberts got healthy, showed what we could do post-Bonds.
What about signing Andruw Jones? Think that is a possibility?
"What about signing Andruw Jones? Think that is a possibility?"
he wants a fuckin' raise.
Lefty,
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>at least 14 of those 18 players basically suck.
Coming from you, Boof, I take this as hyperbole, not ignorance. But it's still wrong. Cain, Lincecum, Wilson, Correia: four right there that are promising to good to ace-like.
I'd put several others in the "unproven" category: Sanchez, Schierholtz, Frandsen, perhaps Misch.
In the "basically suck" category, there's Scott Munter, perhaps Threets, and if you're feeling ungenerous, Taschner.
Ortmeier = poor man's Lance Niekro.
Not sure I agree with you about Aug/Sep, Martin. Aug was definitely better, 16-15, but the team went 9-18 in Sep.
Astute comment on the BP, Lefty, as far as needing a LH. With Henn, Wilson, Walker and Chulk, we have 4 very good RHs, needing only 3 additional pitchers. I had thought they would keep/bring back Kline, but he was not particularly effective over the final two months, ending the year with a 4.70 ERA. He also had a problem walking too many of the first hitters he faced. So, it would make sense to upgrade on his slot and have Atchison (4.11), Messenger (4.20), Munter (4.22), Misch (4.24), Giese (4.82) and Taschner (5.40) fight over the two remaining spots. Observations on the competitors: If Misch makes it, Taschner has no chance. Messenger's ERA is surprisingly good, but maybe that is due to his very strong start; I wouldn't consider him to be a favorite. Atchison did have 30 IPs and has quite a decent ERA for the 6/7 guy in the pen; same as Munter, who'se ERA is surprisingly good. Before looking it up I assumed he would be released. I'm still scared of his 1.77 WHIP.
I think you are being far too generous. I would not put Wilson & Correia in the ace category yet. They still have a lot to prove, IMO.
Let's look at the 18:
Ace - Cain, Lincecum (no debate)
ML Quality players - Lowry (have to assume that he will be gone in '08), Hennessey (maybe)
Still have to prove they are ML quality players - Sanchez, Correia (only because he's failed before, so I mistrust these last 2 months), Frandsen, Schierholtz, Ortmeier, Lewis
Still have a lot to prove - Misch
Cannon Fodder (Basically sucks) - Rodriguez, Alfonzo, Munter, Atchison, Giese, Threets, Taschner, Feliz
Actually, that's 19. Perhaps I included someone wwho shouldn't be on the list.
Oops, left Wilson off the list (should've been in 2nd category). So that actually makes 20 by my count.
Giese and Atchison are not products of the Giants farm system. They're career minor leaguers.
And I didn't mean to put Correia and Wilson in the ace category. I lumped them with Cain and Lincecum as promising (or above). obviously Cain and Lincecum are above. But my larger point still stands. 14 of the 18 do not "basically suck."
ELM, I know you are shocked that I would take the pessimist side here, but seriously, the only hole in Boof's take is that a little time needs to pass before he's dead on.
I would suggest we look at the farmhands by age. Out of the 20, only a few have seen real MLB success. Obviously, judging everyday players by age is different than judging pitchers. I think you can write off any Giant pitcher who is 27 or older (except Lowry who has had some success and maybe Hennessey and Corriea who had decent years. Of the everyday players, only Schierholtz stands out as a prospect. For you Frandsen fans, your guy looks a lot like a career steve scarsone to me, but what do I know.
Everyday:
Schierholtz 24 (in feb
Frandsen 25
Ortmeier 26
Lewis 27 (in Dec)
Rodriguez 29
Alfonzo 29 (in feb)
Feliz 32
The pitchers:
Cain 23
Lincecum 23
Sanchez 25
Wilson 25
Misch 26.
Lowry 27
Hennessey 27
Correia 27
Munter 27
threets 27 (in Nov)
Giese 30
Taschner 30 (in april)
Atchison 31 (in March)
So for those scoring at home, my basically sucks list looks like:
Frandsen, Ortmeier, Lewis, Rodriquez, Alfonzo, Feliz (are we really still debating this guy!), MIsch, Munter, Threets, Giese, Taschner, Atchison (12)
Wait and see:
Corriea, Hennesey, Schierholtz, Wilson, Sanchez (5)
Standouts:
Cain, Lincecum Lowry (3)
ELM is right about Giese and Atchison. They shouldn't count - so my list has 10 basically sucks players. To be honest, it wouldn't shock me to see at least corriea, hennesey and sanchez fall to the basically sucks list as they age.
LOOKING AT THE FREE AGENT POOL.. SCOTT LINEBRINK IS IS THE ONLY FIT THAT I SEE THE GIANTS SIGNING. MARK IT DOWN !!
PS.. UNLESS YOU COUNT PEDRO & OMAR
Definitly getting Linebrink. I bet they trade Lowry and try to get Winn or Roberts tossed in too... there are just too many darn outfielders on this team.
jim e -- you? pessimist? you've shattered all my illusions!
I hear what you're saying about age casting big doubts on guys like Frandsen and Lewis, but based on their performance in the bigs so far -- especially Lewis, whose .378 OBP combined with speed could be very valuable -- I'd put them in a different category. Call it "must prove their worth" instead of "basically sucks." To Frandsen and Lewis I'd add Misch, maybe Ort based on his promise of power.
To be in the "basically sucks" category, for me you've got to have made the bigs, and, well, basically sucked. Scott Munter. Todd Linden. Feliz (on offense).
el lefty: perhaps you are correct. maybe we need a category called, "waiting to suck"
Just remember 1998, when a 27 year old outfielder with speed put up a .396 obp.
The giants then regarded him as a valuable guy and signed him to a fat contract.
His name was Marvin Bernard.
I don't think the Giants will sign Fred Lewis to a 3-year $10 M contract extension this winter. But you never know.
ah scale variables . . .
sucks
Munter
still sucks but I've gotten used to him
Feliz, Rodriquez, Alfonzo
probably sucks
Taschner, Misch, Threets
possibly doesn't suck?
Frandsen, Ortmeier, Lewis, Schierholtz, Sanchez
probably doesn't suck
Hennessey, Wilson, Correia
ballplayer
Lowry
golden god
Cain, Lincecum
that's about 7 occupying or bordering the "Sucking States" 6 in the non-sucking section and 5 that could go either way.
2008 will be a rebuilding year. Play the kids.
Trade Lowry to the Angels for a ss, Aybar, and a minor league pitcher. Then send Roberts to Chicago Sox for young catcher Lucy, Durham and Winn to Cleveland or Texas for young outfielders ( pay a healthy portion of their salaries ), resign Felix ( nobody's else can play D and he is cheap ), send Molina to the Mets, trade Kline , Taschner,and Messenger,and let Hennessy and Misch compete for the 5th spot in the rotation. The Giants 'kids need experience. Play them!