When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

11.01.2007
No Divine Comedy

The first obituary for the 2008 San Francisco Giants has arrived, courtesy of Nate Silver of Baseball Prospectus. Steel yourself for plenty more this winter even if Brian Sabean makes savvy moves, because the Giants have used up their political capital among the punditocracy. The statheads think the brass isn't smart enough, the morally righteous can't wait to see them fail for their long affiliation and complicity with The Great Satan, and just about everyone is generally suffering from Giant fatigue. It's simply not an interesting organization to opine about these days.

Before we begin our long dark plunge through the nine circles this winter -- next stop: panderers, falsifiers and sowers of discord! -- let's take some time to examine Silver's argument.

Silver: Take the Fresno Grizzlies, spot them a league-average starting rotation, and what do you get? The 2008 San Francisco Giants. We’ve talked about teams that face difficult situations, like the Orioles, Rangers, and Pirates. The Giants are in more trouble than any of those clubs. Way more trouble. From the major leagues on down to the rookie levels, the Giants have by far less talent than any other organization.

Ouch. There you have it: Abandon all hope, yadda yadda yadda. There are problems with Silver's opening salvo, however. The Giants' rotation has an excellent chance to be much better than league average. As for having the worst talent in the majors, the team scored high in the 2007 draft, and the team is consistently in the middle of the pack in annual organizational rankings. The most recent I can find are BA's 2006 list -- the Giants placed 18th -- and BP's 2007 preseason list in which the Giants placed 17th. That's not cause for a lot of hoohah, but it doesn't quite merit Silver's rock-bottom dismissal.

Silver: Making matters worse, they have almost no tradable assets, but they do have the horrible contract that they gave to Barry Zito a year ago. Considering that the Giants were 71-91 last year, and that they’re subtracting Barry Bonds from that total plus essentially their entire infield, they’re starting out at no better than a 60-win baseline.

Noah Lowry? Kevin Correia? Jonathan Sanchez? It's unclear how much trade value these guys have, but in a world starved for young starting pitching, these guys are assets. Perhaps Silver was referring to the team's veteran position players: Roberts, Winn, Aurilia, Durham, and the like.

Silver: To get back into playoff contention would require five, maybe six significant free agent signings-–say a first baseman, shortstop, third baseman, left fielder, and closer--which would probably take payroll somewhere northward of $120 million.

Generally, yes, I agree. This team is not close to serious playoff contention, though as I've written recently I can imagine with a lot of good pitching and good luck the Giants could make an interesting .500 team next year. One complaint: Does Silver not consider Brian Wilson a possible closer? Is this reference to the need for a closer an oversight or a dismissal of Wilson's prospects?

Silver: There are two approaches I can see making sense here. The first is to go with an old-school, Whitey Herzog speed-and-defense approach, which could work well in a big field like AT&T Park.

I think he meant "Mays Field."

Silver: The Giants allowed 720 runs last year with a +7 FRAA; if you can somehow turn that +7 into a +70, then you’re talking about allowing barely more than four runs a game, at which point an offense that plays around one-run strategies could scratch and claw out a few victories. It wouldn’t be a winning approach, mind you, but it would be interesting, and it would give the team an identity while aiding the development of the young pitchers. This is my preferred strategy.

At least from what Sabean has implied the past few months, this is also his preferred strategy. Imagine that: One of BP's royal nerdhats actually agrees with Brian Sabean. With guys like Rajai Davis, Eugenio Velez, Nate Schierholtz and Fred Lewis at the core of the roster, we might not see a hometown splash hit until the Chelsea Clinton administration. But how long would it take for Eugenio to hit an inside-the-park homer up Triples Alley and have Kruk and Kuip rename it "Velez Valley"?

Silver: The second approach is to sign Alex Rodriguez. This would not be done with the expectation of having a playoff club in 2008, nor probably in 2009. Rather, it would be done to give the fans something to chew on while you do a deep rebuild on the rest of the roster. We know that the fans have been very supportive in San Francisco–-the Giants turned out more than 3.2 million fans last year in spite of having their third consecutive losing season. But throughout that period, the Giants at least looked like they were trying; it’s very dangerous to look like you’re abandoning hope-and-faith, especially when the kids left on the roster can’t play.

In what universe does signing Rich Aurilia as the starting first baseman look like "trying"? After the debacle of 2007, I'm not sure the fan base will equate going young with abandoning hope. Yes, a lot of casual fans dig the long ball and little else, and those same people will probably show up more often if A-Rod is in the French vanilla and orange. But ultimately it's not just the team's baseball people who must figure out how to run this team without the crutch of a superduperstar. The marketing people are in the same boat. It had to happen sooner or later.

How about a "Fast, Faster, Fastest" theme, built around the heat of Cain and Lincecum and the legs of Davis, Lewis, and Velez? Then throw Zito in the mix as Mr. Mellow: After rapid-fire clips of batters flailing at Cain and Lincecum's fastballs and the fast guys stealing bases and making circus catches, show Zito in the recliner with a mug of hot tea saying, "Hey, what's the rush?"

After all, we're going to need a little comic relief next year. 
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[November 1, 2007 11:13 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Dan from NM said

My thoughts exactly. Nate's being a little too mean, and let's not forget that some teams get better in a hurry (Tigers).

[November 2, 2007 8:36 AM]  |  link  |  reply
moderation said

Get used to it. The Giants make a convenient wipping boy this off season. A national pundit who generally covers 30 teams, is never going to know as much about a team as the fans who closely follow one. Not one will note that the Giants scored half a run more per game when Bonds didn't start, not one will notice that this was a much better team in the second half and not one will credit any of the younger players s anything other than a fluke because they haven't spent the last 4 years on BA's top 50 prospects list. Ah, sticks and stones...

[November 2, 2007 9:45 AM]  |  link  |  reply
DC said

I must be alone here, or one helluva fan. I think we need two decent bats (preferably 3rd and 1st) and we're ok. Our pitching is good, I think Wilson will be a solid closer, and we just need offense. Granted, we won't be a playoff team, but to say we're the worst team in baseball is a little off.

[November 2, 2007 11:28 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Doug Purdie said

DC - Yes, we need offense. The problem is beyond A-Rod and Posada there isn't much available in the free agent market this year. We'll just have to settle for a pitching/defense team next year.

And I say NO, to A-Rod. We could get two quality players for his likely price. I like Colon and Cordero. If we put together a pitching staff that can hold the opposition to 650 runs, 700 runs scored might very well be enough for a Division Title. It's the NL West, remember?

And, can anybody tell me why Sabean wants to trade two young, talented and CHEAP pitchers in Lowry and Sanchez? I know we could use them to get hitters, but could we actually get young, talented and CHEAP hitters? Not likely. Sabes - Hold on to your good, young pitchers until they're not cheap any more!

[November 2, 2007 3:40 PM]  |  link  |  reply
UVHaight said

If the Giants sign A-Rod, I will stop watching baseball forever.

[November 2, 2007 4:01 PM]  |  link  |  reply
DC said

I'm totally fine with the Whitey Herzog approach this year, but we still need a Jack Clark-type bat in the middle of the lineup.

If the Giants do sign AROD, I really might have second thoughts on this franchise under the current ownership. As someone pointed out, we can get two good players for that price. We're talking two all-star caliber players.

[November 2, 2007 4:28 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Frank said

I haven't decided on A-Rod, yet, but just to play devil's advocate: While we could sign two all-stars for the same money, they would likely be coming in at positions we already have decent players. A-Rod, on the other hand, could play a very decent SS, a position for which we have nothing and for which nothing is available in FA, and he would outproduce Bonds (if you figure 40-45 HRs, etc, etc). That would allow us to go with a young OF, Ort and Frandsen, with only 3b up in the air.

[November 3, 2007 1:41 AM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive said

BP has been anti-Giants and anti-Sabean for years now, so this hit-piece is no surprise.

Here's a good example of their two-facedness in attacking the Giants. First, they criticize the Giants for drafting Matt Cain (either directly - don't subscribe - but at least indirectly because their draft expert says that its extremely risky to draft high school pitchers in the first round). Then they make fun of the Giants when Cain actually turns out to be very good by questioning why the Giants punted their draft pick when they selected Matt Cain (which they didn't like in the first place because they don't think teams should draft high-school in the first round). So which is it, should the Giants have drafted Matt Cain or shouldn't they? One BP analyst says they shouldn't have, the other says that he's a great example of how to draft.

I doubt we can get two quality players for, say, the $27M we would pay A-Rod in 2008. (He wants $30M average, but the Giants typically backload contracts, plus that makes more sense anyway, to escalate the salary into the future, straight line ones don't make sense).

Colon and Cordero? Please! In what alternative universe is Bartolo Colon considered a quality player? He hasn't even started a full season's slate of starts in the past two years, and has an ERA of about 6 for those two years, and will be 35 years old in 2008. How is that quality?

And why get a closer like Francisco Cordero when we have Brian Wilson in place and Tyler Walker in backup? I think we have more pressing problems on the offense, particularly 3B and SS.

[November 3, 2007 1:58 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Frank said

I am not even sure A-Rod is all that unaffordable.
$30,000,000. (Wow. Fell free to drop that into my bank account any time)
Bonds: $18 mil
Feliz: $ 5 mil
Durham $ 7 Mil

Roberts or Winn: $ 6-8 mil
It really is not all that hard.

[November 4, 2007 8:47 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Reeky said

Wow, great column Lefty. The road-to-hell's-circles and philander's etc links are great. Fatherhood has not yet sapped your creative juices, or you're still running on post-natal adrenaline!

The only hope for 2008 and probably 2009 is a miracle-run by the kiddies, and wouldn't that be a great stick-it-in-the-eye for Silver and his types? The best hope for 2009 and beyond is a home-grown team with a few choice FA's, a la Detroit and Chicago. If this pitching production keeps up, we could be the Milwaukee of the West! Whoohoo!

McGowan & Co should realize that they'll get 2 million butts in the seats just 'cause this is SF and it's Mays Field (is it a work of art or a baseball stadium?). So they should relax, enjoy a couple of years of excessive profits with the kiddies, and watch for those FA bargains.

[November 5, 2007 3:02 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Jonathan Bass said

If the Giants sign A-Rod, it will not be because they think he is a good building block for a World Series winner. It will be because they already have a playbook built upon marketing a star on a flawed team, and would be scared to write a new playbook designed to actually win a World Series. In the existing playbook, the team merely needs to stay in contention until late August and the star needs to perform close to historic levels. Nevermind that A-Rod is the kind of loser that announces his free agency in the 8th inning of the final game of the World Series, and skips a ceremony intended to honor him as the AL’s best hitter. This type of behavior is actually covered in the playbook, and it has determined that it will not have a negative impact on revenues, as long as record-setting production is maintained. Results are inconclusive, but anti-social, selfish or otherwise controversial behavior may actually HELP revenues, as it could create a me-against-the-world mentality among the local fan base about the “misunderstood” star in his “misunderstood” city.

[November 5, 2007 3:47 PM]  |  link  |  reply
David said

Baby pictures!

[November 6, 2007 1:15 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Roger said

Moderation: the Giants were 38-48 at the Break last year and finished 71-91. How do you figure they were a much better 2nd half club?