When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

11.19.2007
The Shakeout

A-Rod, Glavine, Schilling, Maddux, Posada, Rivera, Lowell: All have signed or will soon sign contracts. Other free agents have narrowed their own choices — it’s the Bronx or retirement for Andy Pettitte — or have had their choices narrowed for them.

As names come off the table, don’t think of them as players the Giants might have signed. Think instead of the teams that haven’t signed those free agents and whose needs are that much more acute. The faster the free-agent shakeout, the sooner the Giants can get down to making trades. 

For example, the Mets look like a prime candidate for starting pitching. Glavine is gone. Right now the Mets’ rotation consists of John Maine, the mercurial Oliver Perez, the 57–year-old El Duque, a possibly fragile Pedro Martinez, and perhaps Pelfrey or Humber. The Mets might be more interested in Noah Lowry than trading half the farm system for Johan Santana or shelling out 4–and-40 for Livan Hernandez or Carlos Silva. 

Here’s another market marker, hot off the presses: the Angels traded shortstop Orlando Cabrera to the White Sox for Jon Garland, a serviceable but unspectacular starting pitcher. I’d be curious to hear how baseball insiders compare Garland and Noah Lowry. Garland has a track record of 200 innings pitched every year and has never had the ugly BB/K ratio Lowry displayed this year. But he’s also earning $12 million in 2008; Lowry is making $2.25 M.

Today’s question: What is fair trade value for Lowry? I don’t want fanciful trade possibilities, a la “Lowry and Brad Hennessey for Carl Crawford.” Take off the rose-colored spectacles and assess what Lowry is worth. Lastings Milledge? Evan Longoria? Nomar Garciaparra, Ching-Lin Hu and a bag of baseballs? Miguel Tejada and $5 million?



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[November 19, 2007 4:06 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Boof said

The Mets also need a catcher and are known to have coveted Bengie Molina last year. I say let's package Lowry & Molina to the Mets and let's get back 2 quality prospects from the group of Milledge, Gomez & Martinez.

[November 19, 2007 5:33 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Nick Cannata-Bowman said

rotoworld just came out with an interesting possibility:

Lowry/Hennessey to the Mariners for Jeff Clement and Wladimir Balentien

I like it. I like it a lot.

[November 19, 2007 5:54 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

Yeah, but you're not answering my question. I don't want trade spaghetti thrown against the wall, I want a cold-eyed assessment of what Lowry, on his own, is worth.

[November 19, 2007 8:15 PM]  |  link  |  reply
kingofthacove said

Lowry = Clement + Balentien - Hennessey

[November 20, 2007 1:21 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Rickhouse said

I think asking for Longoria is nearly as foolish as asking for Crawford. From everything i've ever heard, Longoria is going to be a star. Milledge is certainly a possibility though.

[November 20, 2007 3:47 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Cyrus said

According to some ESPN writers, Longoria has the potential to hit 30 hrs in the majors next year, or at least the Rays think he does, so I doubt they're going to give him up for Lowry. IMO, Lowry is worth Milledge, because I am not sure Milledge will ever live up to the hype, but given Beane's fascination with him I'm sure the Mets could get Blanton for Milledge, and I'd take Blanton over Lowry... so maybe no there too.

Have I answered your question yet? :)

Well I will now. Given his injury history and concerning peripherals, Lowry can fetch a hitter with a checkered background but who has a lot of talent. Examples are Elijah Dukes (Rays) or maybe a Josh Hamilton (Reds). I'd probably pass on both and take my chances with Noah.

[November 20, 2007 4:51 AM]  |  link  |  reply
MattChina said

Salaries aside, there's a pretty wide gap between Garland and Lowry. As you noted, Garland has been a consistent 200 innings starter who turned in an 18 win season. Lowry is an inconsistent starter with ugly peripherals who was lucky to win 14 for a lousy team. I find it hard to imagine a GM giving up a top prospect or a major league regular for Lowry unless he was truly desperate for some starting pitching.

[November 20, 2007 12:05 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Boof said

One thing that is not being taken into consideration here is that Lowry has a decent contract from a money standpoint and is tied up for a few years. This makes him more attractive than he's otherwise be based soley on his pitching ability. You're not going to get a Longoria for him, but he is certainly worth more than a player with a checkered past/future.