When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

12.05.2007
Blockbuster

3pm UPDATE: This is fun. (5 pm: Billy Beane doesn't think so.)

***

11am UPDATE: Isn’t it interesting there hasn’t been a single rumor about the Giants’ overpaid vets? Is that because Sabean hasn’t even broached the subject? Or as soon as GMs hear “Randy Winn” or “Dave Roberts,” they fall asleep?

[Editor’s note: At $8 M, is Randy Winn really overpaid?]

Baggarly threw out a few names that the Giants could conceivably ask for in addition to Alexis Rios as part of a Toronto trade. Here are their track records:

Brett Cecil
Robinzon Diaz
Curtis Thigpen

And to anyone who thought Andruw Jones might be available for an average of $10 or $11 million a year: if you still think so after this, you’re crazier than the guy who lives in his van across the street from my apartment.

*** 

10am UPDATE: Other than the “low-ball” reference noted below, we have our first Noah Lowry rumor sighting. An Arizona beat writer says the D-Backs have a bit of interest. (Link found via MLB Trade Rumors.) But he also notes Lowry’s bone spur, which was revealed at the end of the season. I had forgotten about that. No wonder other teams are trying to low-ball the Giants.

***

Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis? I love the fact that the Tigers pounced from the shadows to make this deal. Goes to show you: never, ever assume the rumors are giving you the whole story. I never saw the Tigers mentioned even once in the drawn-out Cabrera sweepstakes. I don’t think they were on the media’s radar screen until yesterday.

Detroit gave up two blue-chip prospects, outfielder Cameron Maybin and pitcher Andrew Miller, and four others. Could the Giants have done anything like this? Not without trading one of Lincecum and Cain (to match Miller) and, well, probably the other one, because they don’t have a positional prospect with the bona fides of Maybin.

So kudos to the Tigers, though I’m not so sure D-Train, as fun as he is to watch, can revive his career – I suspect a major injury is on his horizon. Cautionary tale, perhaps, about young phenom pitchers with funky mechanics? For all the frothing about Lincecum, it’s important to keep in mind that there’s an excellent chance he won’t stay healthy the next five years.

With that, we move on. Hopefully the third base logjam will start to clear. My preference for the Giants is Edwin Encarnacion. Garrett Atkins would be nice, but word is he’s not on the market, and I doubt the Rox would deal him to a division rival. Brandon Inge, as rumored here? No thanks. Scott Rolen? He’s everything the Giants don’t want. Expensive, broken-down, and there’s little reason for Rolen to drop his no-trade to come to the West Coast. He’s a Midwest boy, and if you remember, he’s with St. Louis because he pushed the Phillies, his original team, to trade him closer to home. I’d rather have Pedro Feliz. At least Pedro will be on the field every day.

The Merc’s Andy Baggarly once again outpaces the Chron’s ho-hum coverage. Baggarly notes that Giants brass would be willing to start the year with Kevin Frandsen as the starting 3B. He also reports that the offers for Noah Lowry are shockingly “low-ball.” This could change once Santana, Haren, and others are traded, and the market for the less-than-inspiring free-agents (Silva, Kuroda, Livan Hernandez) is established. But I won’t be surprised if Lowry’s with the team into spring training. If I were a GM, I’d want to see Lowry improve before I made a deal.

And look at this:  "Everybody in baseball knows what [Andruw Jones] can do. He just had a down year on-base-percentage wise and average wise."

Sabean said “on-base percentage”! More on Andruw Jones later.

Grant at the McChronic does a good job breaking down the Lincecum-for-Alex Rios chatter. I generally agree. Lincecum for Jay Bruce I would go for, but Rios alone isn’t enough. I’m going to assume that Brian Sabean knows this, too. With all of his dissimulation, I’ll take one thing at face value: he’s not going to trade either Cain or Lincecum unless he’s knocked off his feet.

New name amongst the Giants rumor buzz: second baseman Tadahito Iguchi. Whatever.

Question for now: Where does the Tiger-Marlin trade rank among all-time blockbusters?



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[December 5, 2007 11:49 AM]  |  link  |  reply
trilljester said

It's a pretty huge trade. Nothing of the ARod circus or the Bonds to Giants circus, but it'll go down as huge, especially if the Marlins win the World Series in 2010, or 2011 because of their absolutely LOADED minor league system.

[December 5, 2007 11:55 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Boof said

Just below Asshat Pierzinski for Liriano, Nathan & Bonser.

Sorry.....couldn't resist.

[December 5, 2007 11:56 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Doug Purdie said

Although getting Inge wouldn't be all that exiting, he's better than Feliz. He's considered one of the top three deffensive 3rd basemane in the AL and, unlike Feliz, he can consistantly give you an OPS above .700. Also, if you are missing Feliz too much, Inge will also swing at a lot of slop low and away.

[December 5, 2007 12:04 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

Last year Inge was horrible at the plate. And his career OBP is .304, a marginal improvement over Feliz. He'll be just as expensive, too. No thanks.

[December 5, 2007 12:06 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

Oops -- I hit Post too fast. Rather than pay multimillions for Inge (or Rolen, or Glaus, or Feliz), I'd start the year with Frandsen at 3B and Durham at 2B and see how it plays out.

[December 5, 2007 1:07 PM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive said

Dang, beaten to the punch! I was basically going to say what you said, ELM, particularly Frandsen and OBP (perhaps Felipe has finally taught him the word?).

The difference between D-Train and Lincecum is that D-Train truly does have a hurky jerky pitching motion whereas Lincecum's is merely different. Different is not necessarily bad, especially today with pitcher's arms falling off at greater rates, seemingly, than in the past. Also, I like the fact that Lincecum does not feel enough pain to need to use ice. I think his arm should be fine at least until our inexpensive control is over, at which point we can re-assess and decide whether to resign him like the Astros did with their "no ice" man, Oswalt, or trade him off for a half dozen hot prospects.

I would like to get Inge if the price is cheap enough. Most don't remember, but he came up as a C and their signing of I-Rod pushed him to 3B. That would open up the possibility of actively trading Molina, who should net us more in prospects than given up for Inge.

Then, he could start at C, perhaps not full-time immediately, but eventually with that goal, sharing with Alfonzo or Rodriguez, plus play some games at 3B as well, should Molina be traded.

Or he could be our backup catcher to Molina, since we have Frandsen who can play 3B if Inge is catching, freeing a spot on the bench for another prospect (though sending Alfonzo and Rodriguez to minors). Lots of flex there.

What do you think of Joe Crede? I know there's an injury issue, but what if the price is not that bad since they want to start Fields and thus dump Crede salary and his bad back.

[December 5, 2007 1:11 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Ohan said

Alright.. I've posted a couple fantasy trades, but I can't help it, its fun and I had another one pop in my head after the big Tigers Marlins trade..

Linnccumm
Sanchez
Hennessey
Lewis/or a Vet with Cash

for

Rios
Lind

or

Jay Bruce
Encarnocion
Another Player

???

What you think?

[December 5, 2007 1:45 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Frank said

I am still proposing Mike Lamb - subject to his being able to field adequately.

[December 5, 2007 1:57 PM]  |  link  |  reply
bigO said

Great trade for the Tigers. It makes sense for them as they have a good team and can WIN RIGHT NOW. This wouldn't work for us as we still wouldn't win in '08 with these additions. We need to be the team that can WIN in 2010 or 2011. By WIN, I don't mean a winning percentage but in the thick of the playoff race with a chance at the WS.

[December 5, 2007 2:53 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Boof said

Will you please get off Mike Lamb? He is just a defensively challenged Feliz who make better contact. It is this type of thinking that got the Giants where tehy are today.

[December 5, 2007 4:00 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Cyrus said

The Lincecum-Rios trade is now being mentioned on the ESPN blog.

I'm really starting to get worried. The Giants are "indecisive" about the trade-- as time goes on and they keep missing on offensive players, Sabean (with pressure from Magowan and Baer?) will start to get antsy to just get something done. With interest in Lowry low, Sabean will just justify trading Lincecum by thinking that, with 2 first round pitchers last year and a high draft pick this year, he'll be replaced in a couple years.

Personally, I'd rather be the one to stockpile arms, not the BlueJays. Wait until mid-2009, when you actually know what you have offensively with the Lewis', Frandsens, and Schierholtz's of the world, and your pitching is developed. At that point, if Bumgarner and Alderson are tearing up AA/AAA, then you'll know you have extra chips to acquire offensive players.

IF this was a deal for a transcendent bat, that'd be one thing. But even with singing Andruw, a heart of the order of Rios-Jones-Molina is NOT going to get it done in the west... not in 08, not in 09, and not in '10. Meanwhile, you're pitching will be worse than the Padres and conceivably the Dodgers.

[December 5, 2007 4:29 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Jonathan Bass said

The Giants are stuck. Sabean has made so many bad moves in the last few years among the Nathan/Liriano and Accardo deals, passing on Vlad, signing Edgardo, Zito, Benitez, Durham and Roberts that the Giants have no choice but to let next year play out. You have to be in a position of strength to fleece people and Sabean hasn’t been there for a long, long time. It’s utterly amazing that Sabean kept his job--I still feel that Magowan was behind the Zito signing, it’s the only explanation.

Andruw Jones needs protection in a lineup. He would be a DISASTER in the Giants lineup as currently constructed. He swings at the breaking ball in the dirt almost as often as Feliz does. Some guys just never learn to pick up that pitch.

[December 6, 2007 12:07 AM]  |  link  |  reply
bigO said

"Wait until mid-2009, when you actually know what you have offensively with the Lewis', Frandsens, and Schierholtz's of the world, and your pitching is developed."

It could just as easily go the other way too. Those players you mentioned don't develop and the pitching breaks down. I like the trade and feel Lincecum has to go.

[December 6, 2007 2:34 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Cyrus said

BigO-- yeah, it could. I think it's more likely that the hitting doesn't pan out than Cain or Lincecum suffering serious injury, especially the latter given his flexibility.

But since you want to play devil's advocate, it's possible that Rios never improves and you trade a perennial All-Star starter for what amounts to a Raul Ibanez type.

Be aware that if they trade for Rios, he will NOT have any protection. The Giants aren't going to bid on Jones, and there are no other big bats to acquire. Further, people argue that since Rios hit leadoff half of the year, if he hit 4th he'd make a quantum leap statistically. That doesn't bear out when you look at his stats though, because comparing his #s when he bats 1st or 3rd yields an insignificant difference. He also does the majority of his damage, from a HR standpoint, with no runners on.

The largest leap in a professional athlete's career often occurs between his first and second year. We have yet to see how Lincecum will improve. I think the improvement will be substantial. Rios is what he is, which is better than what the Giants have now, but that's not saying much. I just don't think Sabean gets it. His moves the last few years has lead to the offensive anemia that pervades the lineup today. Too bad. Look towards a contender in 2010, stop feeling non-existant pressure to acquire an above average bat just for the sake of it, and save money to draft some real talent in lower rounds by paying above slot.

[December 6, 2007 11:58 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Tyler said

Boof, why don't you like Mike Lamb? As a part time player he has a good on base, improving pop and should continue to get better if he is given a starting job. Besides a lack of huge power, I don't really see anything wrong with him.

[December 6, 2007 4:13 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Doug Purdie said

I guess I gauranteed to much when I said Inge would produce an OPS over .700 every year. He produced a .698 just last season. But, he is about .020 points higher for the last 4 seasons and is 2 years younger than Feliz. ELM is right though, the improvement would be marginal.

I just have this bias, being a Tiger and Giants fan. I always liked Inge and want to see him remain in one of "my families" and It's not likely the Tigers will keep him now.