When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

12.10.2007
Eastern Philosophy

JapanWe might find out today where Japanese outfielder Kosuke Fukudome will sign. San Francisco has an outside shot, though I’ve seen no concrete reports that Brian Sabean has made a strong play for him.

The Giants are also contemplating a trade for Hideki Matsui, who still has a potent bat. If Matsui comes to S.F. for Noah Lowry or other non-Lincainum pitchers, perhaps he’d be willing to try first base because of his aching knees. Then the Giants keep their ace pitchers, and their lineup is something like this:

against righties:

CF Winn
SS Vizquel
RF Fukudome
1B Matsui
C Molina
2B Durham
LF Lewis
3b Frandsen

And against lefties:

CF Davis
3B Frandsen
LF Winn
1B Matsui
C Molina
RF Fukudome
2B Durham
SS Vizquel

Ortmeier could play 1B on Matsui’s days off. He could also play some outfield, perhaps subbing for Fukudome in RF against tough LH starters. Aurilia would remain the utility infield guy.

Advantages with this scenario:

1) If both players like S.F., it could pave the way for more Japanese leaguers to come here.

2) Matsui is a real hitter. The Giants don’t have many of those. His professionalism and attitude would rub off on Fukudome and drive him to be as good as his countrymate.

3) Nice marketing opportunity.

4) No need to trade Lincainum.

Problems with this scenario:

1) Matsui and Fukudome are left-handed hitters. The Giants and everyone else knows left-handed non-Bondsian power dies a cruel death at Mays Field.

2) Matsui might not want to play first base. (I haven’t had a chance to ask him.) He’s got a no-trade clause and might hold out for a trade to an A.L. team and make the transition to DH. Then again, perhaps he prefers to be on the field, no matter what the position.

3) What if Fukudome is a $40 million disaster? He and Matsui would add about $25 million a year to payroll and take time away from players in their 20s.

4) What to do with the outfielder surplus? Ideal: Trade Dave Roberts. Send Schierholtz to AAA to work on his on-base skills. Keep Lewis and Davis as 4th/5th OFs.

The 25–man would now look like this:

Matsui
Fukudome
Winn
Lewis
Davis
Frandsen
Aurilia
Vizquel
Durham
Ortmeier
Molina
G-Rod or E-Alf
13 pitchers

Or keep Schierholtz on the roster and carry 12 pitchers.

Discuss.



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[December 10, 2007 12:48 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Brian said

I've read that Matsui would waive his no trade if asked. It's a pride thing or something with him.

[December 10, 2007 12:52 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

I saw that too. But I could imagine a situation where he waives the no-trade for only certain clubs -- clubs with a chance to contend in 08/09, for example.

[December 10, 2007 1:00 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Cyrus said

I would be fine with this for 08. You get a guy in Matsui who can respectfully hold down a middle of the order spot, and another in Fukudome who could develop into the type of middle of the order bat the Giants would need in their lineup when they're ready to contend (they need 3 of these, he could provide 1).

I'd rather give up Sanchez for Matsui though. There's something about his mental makeup on the mound (all my observations, I obviously don't know him personally) that I think will prevent him from being as dominant as his stuff would lead you to believe. Conversely, Lowry is very mentally tough and I like what he brings to the rotation.

[December 10, 2007 2:17 PM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive said

Has there ever been a power middle of the order bat that came from Japan?

Matsui has been the best to come, and he's no 30+ HR popping hitter, and as noted, they are both lefties in a lefty-adverse park (I think HR by lefties are down 15-25% from the norm in AT&T).

And Fukodome is 30 years old already, he's not that much younger than Matsui. Some comments make it seem like he's young and coming into his own, he's not, he could be on the downside of his career soon, 30's start the countdown.

Not surprised he chose the majors: let's see, make $5M in Japan or $10M in US, hard choice...

About choices, the main thing Matsui has expressed is that he would want to be traded to the West Coast, but yeah, I haven't had a chance to speak with him either, anybody within 6 degrees of him? :^)

[December 10, 2007 2:42 PM]  |  link  |  reply
elm said

I think the Giants' best strategy re. Fukudome would be to Andruwjones him: offer more money and fewer years. By the time the contract is up (say, 2010), the team should have some homegrown talent ready to replace him.

[December 10, 2007 5:21 PM]  |  link  |  reply
giantsrainman said

I think the Giants think Schierholtz is closer to being a major league starting position player then Lewis and I agree. If they have at least a platoon split to offer to one of them I would bet it would be and think it should be Schierholtz not Lewis that gets the MLB ABs.

I also think Schierholtz could join Ortmeier in platooning at 1B if Matsui only wants to play LF (as I fear) and Fukudome is in RF.

My 13 man position player roster with these two would then be:

LineUp R/L:
Winn/Fukudome CF/RF
Vizquel/Frandsen SS/3B
Fukudome/Winn RF/CF
Matsui/Molina LF/C
Molina/Matsui C/LF
Durham 2B
Schierholtz/Ortmeier 1B
Frandsen/Vizquel 3B/SS

Bench:
Rodriguez or Alfonzo C
Ortmeier/Schierholtz 1B/OF
Aurilia IF
Roberts OF
Davis OF

Obviously it wold be nice to somehow trade Roberts and Aurilia so that Lewis and Valez can take their spots on the roster.

[December 10, 2007 5:30 PM]  |  link  |  reply
giantsrainman said

By the way, here is a crazy idea I shared with the McCoven and I wondered what you all thought?

Really Crazy Idea!
That Might actually help both the Giants and Yankees if it somehow actually happened. Giants accept the following $22M Salary Dump from the Yankees:

Giants Get:
Jason Giambi and the remaining 1yr and $26M of his contract.
Hideki Matsui and the remaining 2yrs and $26M of his contract.
Carl Pavano and the remaining 1yr and $13M of his contract.
Wilson Betemit and his remaining 3 years of arbitration.
Shelley Duncan and his remaining 3 years of pre arb and 3 years of arbitration.

Yankees Get:
Randy Winn and the remaining 2yrs and $16.25M on his contract.
Ray Durham and the remaining 1yr and $7.5M on his contract.
Dave Roberts and the remaining 2yrs and $13M on his contract.
Rich Aurilia and the remaining 1yr and $4.5M on his contract.
Steve Kline and the remaining 1yr and $1.75M on his contract.

Now I am sure you are all thinking that isn't just crazy it is F'n stupid! But, stay with me for a moment while I show the advantages for both teams.

Advantages for the Yankees:


$16.75M/$5.25M ($22M Total) of 2008/2009 Salary freed up for Johan Santana.

Randy Winn to Start in LF allowing Johnny Damon to DH.

Dave Roberts to Play his 2004 RedSox role for the Yankees.

Rich Aurilia and Ray Durham can platoon at 1B and Backup Cano, A-Rod and Jeter at the other 3 infield spots.

Steve Kline as a lefty specialist.

Advantage for the Giants:

Two proven middle of the order bats (Giambi and Matsui) to help hold the offensive fort while the Giants rebuild.

Two young talents (Betemit and Duncan) that have a chance to be a part of the next good Giants team.

Four starting position player jobs (2B, 3B, CF, and RF) freed up for 8 Giants prospects (Betemit, Frandsen, Velez, Davis, Schierholtz, Ortmeier, Lewis, and Duncan) to fight over and for the Giants to find out which ones of these eight will be part of the next good Giants team.

Giants give up ZERO PLAYERS that could be part of the next good Giants team.

[December 10, 2007 5:39 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Brian said

While dumping Giambi's contract always looks good on paper, there's absolutely no way the Yanks would trade Matsui, Duncan and Betemit for a package of useless players. I mean, absolutely useless. Basically, the Yanks would be giving up Matsui to downgrade one offensive slot (Winn instead of Matsui) and as a bonus they get Roberts, Aurilia and Durham to rot on their bench.

Is Kline supposed to be the clincher in this deal?

Probably seems about as fair to me as this variation I saw on River Ave Blues does to you:

Yanks give Matsui, Ian Kennedy, Shelley Duncan

Giants give Lincecum.

[December 10, 2007 6:07 PM]  |  link  |  reply
giantsrainman said

The Yankees do indeed lose on talent but not as much as you state. You are also missing just how much the Yankees win on dollars because they are also dumping Carl Pavano's $13M when he has little chance to even make it back to the majors from Tommy John surgery for any of the 2008 season and thus any of his remaining contract.

If the Yankees were to do this trade they could then trade Hughes, Kennedy, and Batances for Johan Santana and have the dollars to pay for Johan's contract extention.

[December 10, 2007 6:39 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Brian said

The Santana deal was not a money issue.

The Yanks didn't want to part with Hughes, so they walked away from the table as soon as they had Pettitte back in the fold. They could've had Santana for Hughes, Cabrera, and two low level prospects, they walked away from the deal.

They will already recoup a large portion of Pavano's deal through insurance, so trading him isn't really helping all that much.

I don't see why they'd make a trade that doesn't help them at all this year nor in the future. The salary relief you're talking about is for 2008 only. Pavano and Giambi come off the books after 2008. Matsui at $13M/year is a pretty reasonable price for 2008 and 2009.

Sorry to rain on your, "The Yanks will take all the guys we don't want for a couple of bad contracts, decent prospects, and a middle-of-the-lineup bat" parade. No chance.

[December 10, 2007 7:31 PM]  |  link  |  reply
wcw said

Me, I don't see the point of picking up Matsui. His bat isn't that potent, and his contract isn't what I'd call cheap. I'd rather see the team put whatever they've got out there and spend any spare millions they may have on more development.

I mean, it'd have been nice if they hadn't felt they needed to sign Benitez and Matheny and had been able to partake of the explosion of talent that was the 2005 draft class.

[December 10, 2007 8:30 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Frank said

To address OCGs coment about not much power, particularly LH power, I think with our big OF and fast baseruners (in the #8, 1, 2, & 3 slots) a runer on 1st is likely to score most of the time on a double from guys like Matsui, Fukedome, Schierholtz.
My other comment has to do with Schierholtz; it seems to me his time has come to be a starter. I think nothing is gained by having him spend another year in AAA. he should be the everyday LF or RF - unless and until he crashes. I don't mind him coming if it is to play 1b; if we are to give up Sanchez or Lowry AND send Schierholtz the AAA, then I think this is stupid. At a minimun, I want to see Winn (unles he is traded), Schierholtz, Davis, Lewis play as much as posible - again, unless and until they start resembling Todd Linden. While I think we can afford to trade Lowry or Sanchez (and only 1), i don't think it is at all necessary to do so for an OF who will replace one of our current young OFs

[December 10, 2007 10:25 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Cyrus said

re: money for player development

Haven't seen much posted about it, but the Giants bought into FSN Bay Area, joining the likes of the Yankees, Red Sox, White Sox, et al in owning a portion of their own cable network. *Hopefully*, the money made in this venture can offset the $15-20M the team spends each year on ballpark debt. If so, ostensibly, this money could be spent in other areas, namely, player development (more signings like Villalona, more scouting in other countries, and making a draft pick or two out of slot).

In this case, overpaying for someone like Matsui short-term to give the team a good bat (and let's not forget, a good role model as far as playing the game all-out and showing patience at the plate) would not be detrimental.

[December 10, 2007 11:46 PM]  |  link  |  reply
RICK NIELSEN said

Trade Zito and Roberts to Yankees for Matsui and Pavano.....

[December 11, 2007 12:10 AM]  |  link  |  reply
NIELSEN said

ZITO needs run support to win and he won't get that in SF. This would free up money for Giants to resign Feliz and go after a closer. Pavano will be assigned to AAA.

[December 11, 2007 2:34 AM]  |  link  |  reply
BawLa said

I posted something similar on the McC and got some positive feedback. My suggestion in a trade with NY was a less extreme than rainman's idea.

NY needs bullpen help, and what do we have? A shiny 5th starter/bullpen horse in Hennessey. And he just so happens to be one of our expendable pieces. How convenient. Anyway, I guess I should just cut to the chase here.

Lowry + Hennessey + Roberts

for

Matsui + Betemit

NY gets a quality lefty in Lowry, one with mental toughness, one that is just starting to figure out how to make hitters pound his offspeed stuff into the ground. Lowry is cheap, as if they cared, and he is could take over Pettite's role in the future. Hennessey is the quality bullpen arm they need, and Brad could be an emergency 5th starter if Mussina goes AWOL. Brad could really get comfortable in his niche as a non-closing quality reliever. A healty Roberts would make a nice 5th OF and gives them some speed.

Providing we can convince Matsui that 1B is a much more comfortable fit over the giant outfield of AT&T, we would fill a desperate need there. Heck, maybe JT could learn Japanese and teach Hideki how to flash the glove. Betemit becomes the 3B project to go along with our other projects. Schierholtz stays in RF, Winn in CF.

There you go. We can put an almost league average offense out there behind our pitching staff which would be as dirty as it gets. I don't think I could be any happier if our starting pitching staff was Cain/Lincecum/Zito/Correia/Sanchez next year.

The next step of course would be to move Durham to ensure that Frandsen gets real playing time. But other than that, this move would solve our rebuilding '08 problems while still keeping Cain and Lincecum. Between Cain, Linceboy, the Japanese heart-throbs, and Omar's dance moves, we could still fill some seats.

Any thoughts? Is the trade realistic? Would we need to throw in more?

[December 11, 2007 3:17 AM]  |  link  |  reply
jordan said

How about Matsui, Ian Kennedy, and Austin Jackson (the yanks top position prospect... a CF with power who is about two years away) for Cain... Any takers? You get a bat now, a bat later, and a pitcher to fill Cain's slot.

[December 11, 2007 3:47 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Brian said

>How about Matsui, Ian Kennedy, and Austin Jackson (the yanks top position prospect... a CF with power who is about two years away) for Cain

That's a pretty steep price, maybe Matsui, Kennedy and Tabata (younger than Jackson, some think a better upside) for Lincecum and Hennessey.

[December 11, 2007 8:58 AM]  |  link  |  reply
reeky said

Interesting economics view of free agency...anybody read the book "Diamond Dollars"?
http://sports.yahoo.com/mlb/news?slug=yp-gennarofreeagency121007&prov=yhoo&type=lgns

[December 11, 2007 11:39 AM]  |  link  |  reply
jordan said

>That's a pretty steep price, maybe Matsui, Kennedy and Tabata (younger than Jackson, some think a better upside) for Lincecum and Hennessey.

I would be somewhat surprised if Cashman goes for TL (unless it's a steal). The Yanks already have two unproven youngsters filling rotation slots; they need someone with at least as much track record as Cain. Though they certainly also need some bullpen help. Anyway, at this point I doubt they'll pull the trigger on anything... it's fun to speculate though.