When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

12.21.2007
Silva Lining Pockets

DollarThoroughly mediocre pitcher Carlos Silva just received a contract slightly above what everyone expected: 4 years, $48 million. The Mariners were the bestowers, and the deal has a couple ramifications for the Giants:

* It makes the M’s less likely to trade for one of the Giants’ starters, but not totally unlikely. Their rotation is now “King” Felix Hernandez, Jarrod Washburn, Miguel Batista, Silva, and a big question mark. If the M’s were smart they would audition everyone in their system and from the scrap heap before trading valuable youngsters for a fifth starter, but we’re talking Bill Bavasi, folks.

* It reinforces the baseline price for “innings-eaters,” which is new slang for “workhorse,” which is a nice way of saying “a guy who isn’t that good but at least his arm won’t fall off.” Your arm isn’t about to fall off? Cha-ching! Unfortunately, I suspect that with injury questions Lowry isn’t viewed right now as an innings-eater. And with his declining peripherals, he probably isn’t viewed by GMs who actually look at peripherals as a young pitcher with promise.

* Let’s compare Silva and Lowry. Silva walks far fewer batters. He induces a lot more ground balls. Except for a blip in 2005, he has stayed healthy for four years. He is also earning more than twice Lowry’s wages through 2010, $36 million to $14.5 million (that includes Lowry’s 2010 club option and incentives). Assuming they both stay healthy over the same period — admittedly an unwise assumption — Silva will not be more than twice the pitcher Lowry is….or will he?  

Let’s use BP’s WARP measurement. The past four years with Minnesota, Silva has contributed 5+ wins three of those seasons, with 2006 an exception for the worse. Lowry topped that in ‘05 with nearly 7 wins, but he’s fallen to 3 and 3.7 the past two years.

(For comparison, the top pitcher in the majors last year, Jake Peavy, contributed 10+ wins to the Padres; the Giants’ best pitcher Matt Cain added 6.3 wins. So a season with a WARP above 5 isn’t shabby. I’ll revise my assessment of Silva to useful instead of thoroughly mediocre.)

Now let’s look ahead: Before the ‘07 season, BP’s PECOTA projection system predicted Lowry’s value to decline steadily over the next few years. Unfortunately, it wasn’t far off for ‘07. It predicted a similar drop-off for Silva, but he beat the odds handily in ‘07, doubling the number of wins PECOTA expected him to contribute.

Silva might not be $36 million worth of useful the next three years, but discriminating teams might not think Lowry is worth $14 million + valuable prospect at this point, either.

Grant takes a good look here at Lowry’s puzzling decline. Let’s hope that we can chalk it up to temporary bone-spur pain; that Noah busts out of the gate in March full of piss, vinegar and change-ups; and that he either stays in S.F. as part of the most stellar rotation this side of Camelopardalis, or he becomes the perfect trade bait for the young slugging corner infielder we’ve all been dreaming about.







[December 21, 2007 5:48 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Cyrus said

Nice post Lefty.

I think the greatest ramification as far as the Giants are concerned is that the price for a pitcher of Silva's caliber has risen 20% in just one year. True, he was likely the best SP candidate in this years market. But while similar pitchers (statistically) in Lilly and Meche pulled in 10M/yr last year, Silva got 12.

I doubt this rate will continue, but nonetheless, Zito's contract won't look so bad in 3 years if he ups his performance a little. Further, once Cain, and Lincecum hit FA (assuming that the latter two develop into the types of pitchers we all think they can be), the Giants are going to have a hell of a time retaining them. Hopefully they'll be proactive and sign them to slightly less ridiculous extensions 1-2 years before they are eligible.

[December 21, 2007 5:50 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Cyrus said

On another note, I saw Steve Decker was named the SJ Giants manager. What happened to Sakata, does anyone know?

[December 21, 2007 11:49 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Chris said

Cyrus,

I believe he's heading to Japan to manage? I think thats what I've heard, but I've been getting almost zero sleep this week so it could all be a figment of my insomnia induced reality!

[December 22, 2007 12:24 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Anonymous said

I heard he was going to Japan too.

[December 22, 2007 1:23 AM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive said

Sakata wanted a big league assignment and when that went to someone else, he took off for Japan.

Yeah, Silva helped make Lowry look better as a cheaper alternative. But I now think it's better to hold onto him and watch his pitch counts more in 2008 and get him through a whole season, then we should be able to get something pretty good for him in the 2008 off-season.

[December 22, 2007 4:43 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Frank said

There was a lot written about Lowry's change up being less effective last year, not thrown as well. I would be interested in Lefty's take. I remember talking to Lefty about Lowry's often being consistently high. It was also my observation that hitters were looking for the change up and laying off his other 2 pitches.
All that notwithstanding, I do think, with his contract, if he only duplicates in '08 what he did in '07 he will be very valuable in trade. I know there are lots of predications he will implode, but, if as seems evident from the non rumors and non trades, he does we really haven't lost much by holding on to him until July or next Winter.

[December 22, 2007 7:03 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Boof said

Wait a minute here. Can you explain to me how Lowry is going to be more valuable in trade if he duplicates '07 when he apparently has about zero value in trade right now?

[December 22, 2007 8:11 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

To answer Frank's question: yes, I think Lowry's had spotty control of the changeup. When he was new to the league and teams weren't ready for it, location didn't matter as much. But now, with teams looking for the change, he has to locate it better.

Re. Boof's point about his value: I'm not sure his trade value is zero. I think it's less than we assumed when the off-season started, but it's also possible that teams that might be interested are also holding back trade chips for other potential trades -- for example, it could be possible that the Reds don't want to trade Encarnacion until the Erik Bedard situation shakes out.

[December 22, 2007 11:41 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Frank said

I think Lowry is kind of a question mark, particularly since his peripherals have fallen, he was lucky to get his 14 wins, and there is an injury concern. However, if he were to duplicate the IPs, the ERA, and come reasonably close to 14 wins - for a second consecutive year - his consistency would be shown and any team would love to get those numbers for that miniscule contract. He would be worth a lot this trading season if teams thought a) he could stay healthy and b) he was likely to post the same numbers next year.

[December 23, 2007 4:43 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Cyrus said

Thanks for the info on Sakata.

To second Frank's points, I think the key with Lowry is his health--staying healthy and pitching more innings. If his ERA stays the same at that point, he will be able to net a hitter of value in a trade, esp given that he's a relatively cheap lefty starter.

[December 23, 2007 12:11 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Boof said

That's what everyone seems to think.........except for the other teams in baseball who apparently don't share that opinion.