When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

01.29.2008
Team Building Exercise 99

Now that Kevin Frandsen has flexed his muscles and scared Pedro Feliz all the way to Philadelphia (for reportedly less money than the Giants offered), we’re one step closer to this lineup come March 31:

LF Roberts/Davis
3B Frandsen
RF Winn
C Molina
CF Rowand
2B Durham
1B Ortmeier
SS Vizquel
Pitcher

Questionmark1There are so many question marks, the team’s theme song this year should be “96 Tears.” (One for each loss? Gawd, I hope not.) I’ve only put Molina fourth because Bochy has said Rowand will hit fifth, but I think the team is better served with them switching places. Even better, if Durham can regain some semblance of his former self — are his 2003 numbers of .285 / .366 / .441 too much to ask? — I’d prefer this lineup:

LF Roberts/Davis
3B Frandsen
RF Winn
CF Rowand
2B Durham
C Molina
1B Ortmeier
SS Vizquel
Pitcher

If Ortmeier proves worthy from both sides of the plate, perhaps he could move up to 2nd against righties to exploit the hole between 1st and 2nd base with a runner on, bumping Frandsen to 7th. (Note that I’m hoping against hope that Ortmeier hits well enough to stave off a platoon with Aurilia. You can call me Polly, and you can call me Anna.)

I’m also assuming that Fred Lewis will take the 150 leadoff ABs that Dave Roberts will miss due to injury. If/when Roberts is traded, which Grant has pegged as the Giants’ #1 in-season priority, there will be more adjustments, perhaps Schierholtz taking over LF and Winn taking over the leadoff spot, like this:

RF Winn
3B Frandsen
LF Schierholtz
CF Rowand
2B Durham
C Molina
1B Ortmeier/(Aurilia?)
SS Vizquel
Pitcher

Got a better lineup? Tinker away. 
Also on the Network:



[January 29, 2008 4:03 PM]  |  link  |  reply
FelipeForever said

You really have got to consider splits when constructing these lineups. Sadly enough, Randy Winn is a paler version of Dave Roberts against rhp. There are a lot of them rhp's around.

[January 29, 2008 4:32 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM replied to FelipeForever

"Paler version" is arguable.

Here is Winn's 2005-2007 average vs. RHP:

.292/.350/.448

Roberts, same split, same period:

.286/.360/.412

Slightly better OBP than Winn, much worse SLG.

[January 29, 2008 11:11 PM]  |  link  |  reply
FelipeForever replied to ELM

I stand corrected.

[January 29, 2008 11:11 PM]  |  link  |  reply
FelipeForever replied to ELM

I stand corrected.

[January 29, 2008 11:14 PM]  |  link  |  reply
FelipeForever replied to ELM

I stand corrected. Should always look at those 3-year splits before making pronouncements. I don't get Winn, who seems to have completely reversed his strengths as a hitter last year. He drives me crazy, and I might be happier to see him dealt than Roberts (especially if we can get something real for him). It did make me feel a lot better to see the longer term track record, though, since I know he'll be out there against everyone.
I think we still need to think a little more about split lineups. I'll get on it pronto.

[February 2, 2008 9:25 PM]  |  link  |  reply
FelipeForever replied to FelipeForever

Ok, it's taken me so long that nobody will see this, but.... after passing some reasonable splits through Marcel the Monkey on the Baseball Musings website, here is how she breaks down:

v. RHP
Lewis (or Roberts, if that's necessary)
Rowand
Durham
Winn
Frandsen
Molina
Ortmeier
Vizquel
Pitcher

v. LHP
Davis
Rowand
Winn
Molina
Durham
Ortmeier
Frandsen
Vizquel
Pitcher

There's apparently about half a run difference on how these lineups would score. Unfortunately, as you might expect, we have an advantage against lefties.

The major problem (or most major, if grammar wasn't an issue) is that we don't have anyone who can hit righties and play firstbase. What a liability!!

[January 29, 2008 4:07 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Frank said

As I just postulated on McChrons, I think the Gmen go with 12 Ps, 2Cs, 5 OFs (Schierholtz to AAA) and 6 IFs. Sabean just this week said he's unlikely to bring in a 1b, meaning, I think, he's likely to bring in one of Crede/Ensberg/MacPherson.
My money is on Crede - and I wouldn't mind at all, in fact, I'd cheer, if the PTBN was one of Roberts/Durham. I also would put big money (against my heart and preferences) on Velez, McClain, Ochoa, et al, spending April-August in the minors.
I am Ok with your line up, Lefty, and think we win about 81 games. But for April-July, I think it is:
Roberts/Davis
Frandsen
Winn
Rowand
Molina (I agree with your logic)
Durham
Ort
Omar

Alternatively:

Roberts/DAvis
Frandsen/Durham
Winn
Rowand
Crede
Molina
Ort/Aurilia
Omar

[January 29, 2008 10:24 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Zack said

I would like to see what Lewis could do every day. If I recall correctly, he finished the season with the second highest obp on the team, behind only Bonds. More than anything, that tells me he has a plan at the plate, which is something we were unable to say about prior prospect burnouts such as Linden or Neikro, and I certainly haven't seen that from Schierholtz yet. Lewis has a great approach, and of the young outfielders, has shown me the most.

I also completely disagree with Bochy's notion that Molina should hit fourth. If small ball and aggressive baserunning is going to be the offensive theme, leaving Molina in the middle to clog things up will be a rally killer. He should bat 7th. That said, I'm not sure what to do with the cleanup spot. Ortmeier could potentially be that guy, but he obviously has a lot to prove. Maybe Durham if he looks born-again in the Cactus League? Whoever you go with, it will be an ugly microcosm of the rest of the lineup.

[January 30, 2008 12:33 AM]  |  link  |  reply
El Guapo said

This post makes me sad.

[January 30, 2008 6:23 PM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive said

Baloney, Winn should be the #1 priority to trade, we need Roberts to be like a Maury Wills for us at the top of the order. If no one has noticed, we have like a bazillion gazelles in the minors who are leadoff speedy but powerless hitters. Roberts fits that mode, Winn does not, he can be the placeholder for them until they are ready to come up in 2010 (hopefully).

Winn would also net us more in trade, and prospect talent is what we need right now. He is also more tradeable, he can play all 3 OF positions adequately and he also hits adequately as well.