When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

01.18.2008
(The) Change is Good

PM UPDATE: Some movement among third-base puzzle pieces. The Brewers don’t want Pedro Feliz. Joe Crede signed a one-year deal with Chicago to avoid arbitration (though he could still be trade bait). The fewer the teams interested in Feliz, the more likely he’ll return to S.F. on the Giants’ terms.

***

ESPN’s Rob Neyer held a chat yesterday to compare Tim Lincecum and Milwaukee’s 21–year-old phenom Yovani Gallardo. Amongst the chatters there was some dumb homerism, but as with anything Neyer-related the discussion was lively and enlightening. One point struck me in particular: the conventional wisdom that Gallardo is more polished, with better command of more pitches.

In one sense this is true. Lincecum walked four batters per nine innings last year, Gallardo only three. Lincecum needs to cut down the walks to become an elite pitcher, no doubt. But there’s also a fallacy that Lincecum has only a great fastball and curve, with a change-up barely worth mentioning. Here’s Neyer at the end of the chat:

Granted, maybe [he needs] a decent third pitch eventually, but he's got plenty of time to develop one.

News flash: Lincecum already has developed one. According to this Hardball Times analysis of every pitch he threw in 2007, his change-up is “already an incredibly effective pitch.” 

The misplaced conventional wisdom comes perhaps from the fact that he only began working on it when he signed professionally. There’s also this video breakdown of his mechanics by BP’s Will Carroll, in which Carroll pans Lincecum’s change-up. Carroll’s piece is a good one, but it seems derived from Lincecum’s first few weeks in the bigs; much of the footage is from his first start against the Phils in which he fought nerves and threw the ball all over the place.

Only a few months separate the Carroll video and the HT analysis. The kid learned fast. He took on a difficult art — a “feel” pitch that power pitchers often can’t figure out — and turned it into what the Hardball Times writer calls a “plus plus” weapon. That’s a very good sign. Does the Giant pitching staff deserve kudos on this one? Keep that in mind next time you witness egregious Righetti-bashing.

ChangeA technical note: most pitchers throw a change-up with the “circle” grip shown at right. Lincecum reportedly throws his more like a split-finger. I couldn’t find any photos of his grip — if you find any, let me know.

(Photo courtesy of the flickr page of “Pro Photo Online,” a.k.a. Jon Leicester, who has thrown 82 big-league innings with the Cubs and O’s. Check out Leicester’s entertaining photo set from Venezuelan winter ball, including a blurry shot of Rajai Davis.)

Here’s another tidbit that came from the Neyer chat. Neyer and others felt the Brewers’ addition of Mike Cameron in center and the move of Ryan Braun from third base to left field would greatly help Gallardo (and presumably the rest of the Brewers’ pitchers). Are we not giving enough weight to the defensive upgrade the Giants will get by adding Rowand in center and shifting Dave Roberts to left? Or conversely the loss of Pedro Feliz’s glove at third base?

Giants defense in 2008: Discuss. Or just tell us how much you can’t wait to see Lincecum on the mound.



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[January 18, 2008 8:52 PM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive said

I can't wait to see Lincecum on the mound!

I think the Giants will miss Feliz's defense at 3B, but given that it is not considered that key a defensive position (I don't think I've ever heard about a team putting up with a poor offensive 3B because he plays great defense there; and Feliz played great defense there in 2007), I would rather use the position in 2008 to find out more about Frandsen's bat in the majors. If we must trade for a vet, then I hope we don't give up too much.

McPherson would have been a nice alternative given his stellar minors stats and him not costing us any prospects, but that rumor died a quick death.

However,since there has been no news on him since the reported Giants contact, I'm hoping he's finding no interest in whatever outlandish demand Boras started out with, forcing Boras to come back to the Giants, hat in hand. He owes us one for the Zito contract, so maybe he'll cut us a deal, not all his clients get a great deal.

However, though 3B defense might go down, the OF might go up a lot, with Roberts/Davis taking over LF from stiff legged Barry Bonds (though at least he didn't make the worse plus/minus LF in the Fielding Bible's stats) as Roberts did very well in LF with the Padres and Davis was good in CF because of his speed. Plus Rowand had a gold glove season in CF for the Phillies, so he should be better than Roberts/Others in CF for the Giants in 2007. Lastly, Winn has played very good defense in RF. Overall, very good.

Infield is a big question mark, with Frandsen at 3B (hasn't played there since college; there's a reason he came up as 2B), Durham at 2B, Ortmeier at 1B, and Vizquel over 40 years old.

Molina at C is a question mark too, some seem to think he's good, some seem to think he's pretty bad and that it is his offense that keeps him up.

But, with Lincecum pitching a full year and Cain too, there should be less balls in play there, leaving Zito, Lowry and Correia/Sanchez. Zito and Lowry will allow balls in play, but Zito appears able to keep balls from becoming hits. And Correia/Sanchez should be an upgrade over Morris/Ortiz in terms of K/9, so overall there should be less BIP in 2008 vs. 2007, so defense might not be as much an issue.

Also, 3B saw half the putouts as SS, one-third as 2B, and under a 10th of that of 1B. And it is about one-third of the putouts seen by any OF (unfortunately, could not find a stat source for balls in play by position).

[January 19, 2008 1:04 AM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM replied to obsessivegiantscompulsive

>I don't think I've ever heard about a team putting up with a poor offensive 3B because he plays great defense there

I was going to say Brooks Robinson, but he was actually an above average hitter much of his career. Shame on me.

[January 18, 2008 9:00 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Johnny Disaster said

I have always had a high opinion of Dave Righetti as a coach... although the last few years have made me a doubter. I think the Enchanter's dad is his pitching coach and I'm beginning to suspect Rags' strength is getting the most out of a veteran staff and his weakness is developing young arms that in the past would still be in the minor leagues getting innings under their belt. That's not egregious, is it?

[January 21, 2008 4:11 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Paul R. said

I don't think I've ever heard about a team putting up with a poor offensive 3B because he plays great defense there

Clete Boyer comes to mind...but that was in a different era. Nothing off the top of my head in terms of contemporaries, though I guess you could go with...ugh...Nick Punto on the Twins.