PM UPDATE: Some movement among third-base puzzle pieces. The Brewers don’t want Pedro Feliz. Joe Crede signed a one-year deal with Chicago to avoid arbitration (though he could still be trade bait). The fewer the teams interested in Feliz, the more likely he’ll return to S.F. on the Giants’ terms.
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ESPN’s Rob Neyer held a chat yesterday to compare Tim Lincecum and Milwaukee’s 21–year-old phenom Yovani Gallardo. Amongst the chatters there was some dumb homerism, but as with anything Neyer-related the discussion was lively and enlightening. One point struck me in particular: the conventional wisdom that Gallardo is more polished, with better command of more pitches.
In one sense this is true. Lincecum walked four batters per nine innings last year, Gallardo only three. Lincecum needs to cut down the walks to become an elite pitcher, no doubt. But there’s also a fallacy that Lincecum has only a great fastball and curve, with a change-up barely worth mentioning. Here’s Neyer at the end of the chat:
Granted, maybe [he needs] a decent third pitch eventually, but he's got plenty of time to develop one.
News flash: Lincecum already has developed one. According to this Hardball Times analysis of every pitch he threw in 2007, his change-up is “already an incredibly effective pitch.”
The misplaced conventional wisdom comes perhaps from the fact that he only began working on it when he signed professionally. There’s also this video breakdown of his mechanics by BP’s Will Carroll, in which Carroll pans Lincecum’s change-up. Carroll’s piece is a good one, but it seems derived from Lincecum’s first few weeks in the bigs; much of the footage is from his first start against the Phils in which he fought nerves and threw the ball all over the place.
Only a few months separate the Carroll video and the HT analysis. The kid learned fast. He took on a difficult art — a “feel” pitch that power pitchers often can’t figure out — and turned it into what the Hardball Times writer calls a “plus plus” weapon. That’s a very good sign. Does the Giant pitching staff deserve kudos on this one? Keep that in mind next time you witness egregious Righetti-bashing.
A technical note: most pitchers throw a change-up with the “circle” grip shown at right. Lincecum reportedly throws his more like a split-finger. I couldn’t find any photos of his grip — if you find any, let me know.
(Photo courtesy of the flickr page of “Pro Photo Online,” a.k.a. Jon Leicester, who has thrown 82 big-league innings with the Cubs and O’s. Check out Leicester’s entertaining photo set from Venezuelan winter ball, including a blurry shot of Rajai Davis.)
Here’s another tidbit that came from the Neyer chat. Neyer and others felt the Brewers’ addition of Mike Cameron in center and the move of Ryan Braun from third base to left field would greatly help Gallardo (and presumably the rest of the Brewers’ pitchers). Are we not giving enough weight to the defensive upgrade the Giants will get by adding Rowand in center and shifting Dave Roberts to left? Or conversely the loss of Pedro Feliz’s glove at third base?
Giants defense in 2008: Discuss. Or just tell us how much you can’t wait to see Lincecum on the mound.
