I don't think it's arguable at all. Two nice starts for a lifetime, roughly, 4.80-4.90 ERA pitcher prior to this season does not make him even a league average pitcher yet. Further more, he has been helped out by his home parks, his road numbers are horrible. And he faced the Washington Nats last game, and Colorado when they were struggling in his first.

He's pitched poorly here before, I think he's not going to pitch so well today.

I don't think that there was anybody who thought Zito was our ace even last season. It is only his contract that makes people say that. But if you look at the numbers, he's paid like a good - not ace pitcher - in the early years of the contract, and by the time we reach the middle of the contract, baseball salary inflation would have reduced his contract to that of an average league pitcher.

Of course, he hasn't pitched like one so far this season, but I blame that on him thinking too much, which is a complaint I heard when he was an A's pitcher, and that he's been trying to overdo things again. With the starters having a nice streak of good starts, I think that will relax him more than pressure him and he'll have an OK outing tonight. I think, like Cain on opening day in SF, he's been a little amped up and overthrowing, and should be better now.

The Cards needed to win that game to have a real shot at winning the series. Hate to see Wainwright falter, but give Correia some credit, he kept the Cardinal bats quiet.

I do expect they'll bust out tonight against Zito, though.

Indeed, it's not arguable -- Lohse is clearly a slightly better pitcher than Zito these days. More strikeouts, fewer walks, fewer home runs, while pitching largely in home-run parks.

Which, since Lohse is on a one-year, $4.25 million deal, brings up the ever-popular "how much of Zito's contract would we have to eat in order to trade him" game. I'm thinking $80 million.

What more does Fred have to do to get respect? Roberts was handed the job because we overpaid for him. Several of our marginal replacement level OFs could deliver the goods at least as well. Sad to say, his injury is a boon to the team.

Here's what Ron Shandler wrote about Lohse today:

Is everybody grabbing Kyle Lohse out of the free agent pool after he opened the season with 12 scoreless innings? Big deal. During the week of April 15 last year, he threw 15 scoreless innings. Then, during the weeks of May 28, June 7, June 30, July 6 and July 25 – over the course of 45 innings – he posted an ERA of about 1.50. This is a pitcher who finished the season with an ERA of 4.62.

I don't remember which pitchers got the big contracts this off-season, so perhaps inflation was put on hold (though I doubt it), but last season, jumping off of the $10M that average pitchers like Lilly, Vicente Padilla, and Jeff Suppan, and growing it out at the 10% salary inflation that The Hardball Times said is the norm, plus a high rate one season, Zito's paid like a good pitcher - not an ace - early on on a per-season basis, then like an average starter in the middle, then below average at the end.

I'm not saying that it's not a tightrope act that will necessarily pay off, I'm just saying that his salary per season is not like that of an ace (his total contract size, however, is and hence why everyone harps on him being an ace). What the Giants are appearing to be betting on is that he can be a workhorse innings eater that will be a good pitcher for about a third of his contract, an average pitcher for a thrid of his contract, a slightly below-average pitcher for a thrid of his contract.

It's a cow of a contract being digested by a boa constrictor and it will take a long time to see whether it will cause indigestion or satisfaction by the end. Much like Bonds, which was also a huge gamble given that he was entering his late 30's (where Mays had his big downturn). Good thing he had his lost season to the knee late in the contract and not early.

Obviously, Zito's not off to a good start, but it's all small samples this early in the season. I think he will do better once he gets over himself and just pitch.

Lohse's career road ERA is 5.18, and if you look at the league ERA for 2007 (from Lohse's bb-ref profile), league average is 4.64, and if you look over his career, mid-4 ERA is league average.

Here's how he accomplished his league average ERA in 2007: playing at two hitter's havens - CIN and PHIL - yet somehow he was much better at home than on the road, his home ERA was 3.03 and his road ERA was 6.17. I'm betting that he just had a really lucky year at home - it happens - and that the real Lohse, as indicated by the 5.18 career road ERA, will show up eventually and crash his season.

I think Lohse will eventually work out much like the Card's experiments with Ponson, Wells, Weaver, and others in recent seasons and be a big bust. But if you are betting on him being better than Zito, I think that's a poor bet.

Here is what I see as the upside, and what really jazzes me: Sanchez's 6 scoreless innings followed by Correia's studly performance. I thought Correia pitched very well last year, particularly building on each start at the end of the season. With young pitchers, you look for small improvements with each start in their approach, stamina and abilities, and forgive an occasional blowout. That is easy to forget with Cain and Lincecum, because their abilities are already at such a high level. Sanchez, IMHO, had a breakout performance Monday to give us 6 with only 3 hits, 10K's and only 2 BBs. To follow that up with 7+ from Kevin just sets a whole new tone to this rebuilding thing. Is Lohse a bigger lohser than Zito? Who cares.