When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

04.25.2008
4/24/08: Splendid

Giants 1, Padres 0
: Tim Lincecum and the bullpen shut down the Pods. Rich Aurilia hits a home run. Brian Sabean leans back, rubs his hands together, and murmurs, "My plan is working to perfection!"

PLODAG: Aurilia, for old time's sake.

The Upside: Tim Lincecum....but did he need to throw 121 pitches? I'm holding my breath. Did Bochy leave him in too long? Discuss.


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[April 25, 2008 9:00 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Chris said

Everyone thinks Lincecum is invincible and some sort of cyborg, or something, but I didn't like him throw 120 pitches in a game.

So, I think Bochy left him in too long. I wouldn't have sent him back out after he was at 108 or whatever it was.

His college workload is often discussed when it comes to this sort of thing ("Well, he threw a ton of pitches in college") but college innings =! major league innings.

[April 25, 2008 11:41 AM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

For me the pitch count itself wasn't disturbing, it was how fast he got there and how many long at-bats he had to work through.

Once Aurilia gave the Giants the lead in the top of the 6th, I would have either taken Lincecum out and let a reliever start the bottom of the inning, or I would have put Tim on a short leash -- ie, one baserunner, and you're done. He walked Greene on 8 pitches to start the inning, then got an out and gave up another hit before Bochy came with the hook.

[April 25, 2008 11:41 AM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM replied to ELM

>>the lead in the top of the 6th...

Oops -- make that top of the 7th.

[April 25, 2008 12:11 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Chris replied to ELM

His per inning pitch totals weren't too bad. He threw 20+ pitches 1st (21) and the 4th (28). That 4th inning had to be draining.

The 5 walks didn't help his totals, either. If I'm wearing the manager pants, once Aurilia popped that HR, Lincecum was done.

I wonder how much of it was a mixture of the pen getting used a lot in the previous game and Bochy just wanting to beat SD?

[April 25, 2008 12:08 PM]  |  link  |  reply
#99 said

Lefty,

I'm glad you mentioned the Lincecum pitch count. I almost put my foot through the T.V. when I saw Lincecum's pitch count in the 7th. I sure hope this doesn't come back to bite the Giants.

Is it just coincidence that Cain had a couple of 'wild' starts not long after his very early 114 pitch game? Hmmm! Also, as to Lincecum, having a heavy work load in college is NOT a good thing.

[April 25, 2008 12:12 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Chris said

Oh, and for those that like PAP (Pitcher Abuse Points) after last nights game, Lincecum rose to 4th in the MLB.

http://baseballprospectus.com/statistics/sortable/index.php?cid=204015

His start of 122 pitches is the most thrown by any starter yet this year.

[April 25, 2008 1:12 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Chip said

There is absolutely NO WAY that Lincecum should have gone out there for the 7th...and then when Bochy went back out after the walk and left him in- that was incredibly stupid and Dustyesque. Why there isn't a hard pitch count cap on the Franchise is beyond belief....

This is April! There should be two goals for this organization...1) do not let Lincecum get hurt, 2) do not let Cain get hurt. They already put him back in after that long rain delay which was very questionable, and now they're riding him like some grizzled veteran in a contract walk year.

Every one in this organization should be fired. Now.

[April 25, 2008 1:41 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Frank said

Seems even more strange when at the end of last year they shut him down to 'save his arm.' It is my understanding that, next to the number of stressfull innings, a high number of pitches is the most harmful factor for a pitcher. From everything I have heard and read, a young arm like Lincecum should be strictly limited to 95-100 pitches. Maybe they are going to 'abuse' him to build up his value then trade him. I don't see the sort of careful sheparding you would expect with a long term, franchise type pitcher.

[April 25, 2008 2:04 PM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive replied to Frank

Then you are saying the same thing about Matt Cain, he was used in this fashion last season.

I've said this to you before. Last year was Lincecum's first year in the majors. Not only was it a learning experience for the major league staff on how to use him, but it was his first full professional season. So they cut his season a little short, both to save him and to try out others as starters. In addition, the season was lost at that point, nothing to be gained from starting him.

This is a new year. The arm strength to throw more innings was enabled by him pitching more last season, it should have prepared him to pitch a full season this year. They also have a season of handling him and now have a feel for what they can and cannot do with him. Plus, a year's experience dealing with Tim, knowing when to believe him and when not to, seeing when they should take him out, and so forth on his behavior.

If you say that they are harming him, then list some studies where this has been shown. BP has done some work in this, but I wouldn't say that their work is definitive yet. And most of the stuff you read on this is derived from BP's theories.

And at what point do you stop babying him? Would you continue to shut him down every year to protect him? Would you really do that if the team was competing for the division title?

And if the Giants go to a 6 man rotation when/if Lowry returns, they would be protecting the arms later in the season, when arms should be more tired, not now when their young arms should not be tired at all. Would that flip-flop your opinion then?

[April 25, 2008 1:49 PM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive said

I think the worries are overblown for now. Sure, I think this should be noted as something to watch, but I will start worrying about it if it becomes a season long problem.

People are acting like 120+ pitches is like a tipping point, a black and white situation where his arm will fall off once he reaches it. Bill James made the good point in The Hardball Times annual that no definitive study has shown that 100 pitches is the magical barrier where all hell breaks loose in a pitcher's arm, let alone 120.

Cain had two starts last year over 120 pitches. I would be hard pressed to say which is which, looking at the totals of the two 120+ games and the two games afterward:

A: 14.1 IP, 8 H, 3 R/ER, 4 BB, 12 K, 0 HR

B: 15 IP, 11 H, 4 R/ER, 5 BB, 15 K, 2 HR

I wouldn't be able to tell the difference.

And if you go through his starts in 2007, one could say that a lot of his worse starts were AFTER a game that he pitched less than 100 pitches. Out of 10 starts under 100 pitches, 4 of them (40%) were followed by a game where he gave up 4 or more runs.

In other words, out of 9 starts where he gave up 4 or more runs, 4 of them followed a game where he pitched less than 100 pitches. And 2 more were in the game where he pitched less than 100 pitches. That leaves 3 that followed over 100 pitches in a game (of which there were 15 mening 20% of them were 4 runs or more).

Given that the entire pen was used except for Hennessey and Chulk, I think it was more that than beating SD, though I'm sure that also played into it too. I wouldn't trust Hennessey right now with a 1-run lead right now.

Tim was at 108 pitches after 6. If Lincecum gets through the 7th, then it's just Chulk and Wilson.

And he got through the heart of the lineup the inning before pretty easily, if he had struggled, then I can see the point of taking him out for the 7th, but the 6th was pretty clean.

[April 25, 2008 2:40 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM replied to obsessivegiantscompulsive

>Tim was at 108 pitches after 6.

As I said up top, the only way I would have sent him back out for the 7th was with a short leash -- one baserunner and you're gone.

[April 25, 2008 4:46 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Lars said

James Hoye was not doing any favors for Lincecum's pitch count either. There should have been at least two additional punch outs that were not called. It was an exceptionally small strike zone last night. (not that it excuses Bochy's decision to throw him out there in the 7th, but it is one of the main reasons he was at 106 after 6)

[April 26, 2008 12:38 AM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive said

I suppose many of you would take Sanchez out now? He's at 99 pitches after 8 IP.

[April 26, 2008 1:53 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Jordan said

The Giants aren't winning any pennants this year- on that I think we can all agree. Each time the organization leaves any starting pitcher under the age of 23 (or 25?) in for more than 110 pitches it is a demonstration of utter ignorance and/or disregard for the future success of the team.