Geoff Young — no relation to Chris, presumably — covers the Padres on his blog Ducksnorts. He and I chatted last week about the current state of our favorite teams, and he kindly refrained from rubbing my face in the mess the Giants have made on the living room carpet. Without further ado…
Ducksnorts: Let’s start with the elephant in the room: What does Barry Bonds’ departure mean to the Giants franchise and the city of San Francisco?
El Lefty Malo: In the context of everything else that’s happened this winter, it means the Giants should have the worst offense in the major leagues this year. They were just about there with Bonds, and adding Aaron Rowand isn’t going to make up the difference. I’m not sorry to see Bonds go. I grew up in the Bill Walsh/49ers glory years, and I heartily subscribe to Walsh’s dictum that it’s better to let an aging vet go one year early than one year late. Time to move on.
A lot of fans are agitating to re-sign him, just so the team has some illusion of offense this year. That’s a terrible, horrible, no good very bad idea.
Question for you: What do you think of the Giants’ Jedi mind-trick this spring: trying to erase all traces of Bonds. How’s that one playing down south?
DS: I find it fascinating that MLB’s hit leader and home run leader have managed to become persona non grata. As for Bonds specifically, this was a strange off-season because national media types kept insinuating that San Diego would be a great fit for him. And I suppose if he enjoyed getting hit by large fake syringes every now and then, it just might be. And it goes without saying that nobody’s sorry our pitchers don’t have to face him anymore.
ELM: I want to see Bonds sign elsewhere just to see if my “he’s our jerk” theory holds true. In other words, no matter how big a jerk, fans (except, perhaps in Philly) will cheer a player who helps their team. If he were hitting homers down the stretch run for the Padres, would you cheer for him?
DS: No, and there’s a good chance I’d stop attending games altogether. I’ve had discussions with very smart people about this, and they don’t understand my stance. They tell me it’s irrational, and I’m inclined to agree, but there it is.
Shifting gears, how would you assess the job Bruce Bochy has done thus far in his brief tenure as manager? What do you like, and what could he be doing differently?
ELM: Hard to say. Last year was a circus. This year is the real barometer. Does he put together a good bullpen? Does he preserve the arms of the young aces? Does he play the young guys over the vets? Does he keep things positive when the wheels are falling off?
I noticed comments in the press recently from Trevor Hoffman and Jake Peavy singing Bochy’s praises. Padres players seem to really respect him. Do you think he deserves it?
DS: Bochy’s greatest strength as a manager during his time in San Diego clearly was his ability to work with veteran players. I have no doubt that Hoffman and Peavy loved playing for the guy, as did many others. Players here seemed extremely loyal to Bochy. As for playing kids over vets, the good news is that he’s been willing to do that with pitchers, which aligns well with the Giants’ organizational strength. Position players have been a different story. I don’t know if being forced to pencil the likes of Ruben Rivera and George Arias into his lineup every day on the heels of a World Series appearance jaded him or what, but Bochy had an aversion to playing his young hitters, perhaps most notably Xavier Nady. Not that Nady is great, mind you, but it might have been nice to give the guy a look.
Speaking of the young pitchers, Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum are studs. Beyond those two guys, what are some reasons to get excited about the Giants in 2008 and beyond?
ELM: ….oh, sorry, I must have fallen asleep. Did you ask a question?
DS: Apparently not… What do you think of the Barry Zito signing, and how might his contract affect the Giants’ ability to make other moves?
ELM: Terrible contract. He’s not even a league-average pitcher. I hoped against hope he would be when the contract was announced, but all the signs pointed to the bad. And the signs so far have been right. Maybe he’ll figure out how to return to form, but this is looking like the worst free-agent contract since Mike Hampton. How will it affect other moves? Hopefully it will keep the Giants from making other stupid free-agent moves. The next year or two, they should stay out of the market completely.
DS: Given what you’ve seen from Brian Sabean in the past, how likely do you think it is that the Giants will stay out of the market?
ELM: Not likely. Case in point: Aaron Rowand. It wasn’t a bad contract, in my opinion, especially in light of the Torii Hunter deal. But he’s a band-aid on an amputated limb at this point, and by the time the Giants could contend again, he’ll likely be in decline.
If they spend free-agent money in the next couple years, I hope it’s for short-term deals. It’ll be tough. To come to SF these days, free agents need to be overpaid or get extra years. Apparently the Giants wanted Andruw Jones with the type of deal LA gave him, but he wanted to play for a contender.
DS: Yeah, the Rowand signing was a head-scratcher. As you say, it’s not a bad contract, but the fit is unusual. I also find it interesting that three California teams signed free-agent center fielders to long-term deals just a year after they’d — wait for it — signed free-agent center fielders to long-term deals (Torii Hunter, Gary Matthews Jr. in Anaheim; Jones, Juan Pierre in LA; Rowand, Dave Roberts in San Francisco).
Overall, how happy are fans in San Francisco with the job Sabean has done?
ELM: It’s all “what have you done for me lately.” Until 2003 he was a local hero. Now he’s a goat. He’ll need to show serious progress with this rebuild before opinion turns again. Let’s talk about the Padres. What’s your biggest worry this year?
DS: The outfield, the back end of the rotation, and the strength of the NL West, in that order. Scott Hairston looks legit to me, but I’ll be surprised if both Jim Edmonds and Brian Giles survive the season unscathed. Even if they do, it’s not clear how much they’ve got left. If they can get on base, great; otherwise… As for the pitching, it’s good but not nearly as good as many people seem to think, and beyond the front three in the rotation, there’s a lot of uncertainty.
ELM: The Padres are starting to show age. Should Kevin Towers tear down and rebuild if this season doesn’t go well? If so, who are the keepers? (I assume Peavy is one.)
DS: Towers sort of has been tearing down every year since the Padres moved into Petco Park. Aside from a few core players, they really haven’t doled out a lot of long-term contracts. The few guys who have those deals are the keepers: Peavy, Chris Young, and Adrian Gonzalez for sure, maybe Khalil Greene (he recently signed a two-year extension but has been reluctant to go longer). Kevin Kouzmanoff may be pushing himself into that territory as well.
ELM: It seemed at the time Petco was built to keep Bonds in the yard. Now that he’s out of the picture, should the Pads bring the fences in a bit? I’ve suggested the same thing with Mays Field, especially that dreaded 421-foot fence in right-center, but my readers shouted me down.
DS: They actually did move the fence in right-center in about 10 feet before the 2006 season. Based on how well the Padres used Petco Park to their advantage last year, I’d be reluctant to change the configuration. The Padres accounted for 61.5% of all home runs hit in their own park in 2007, which was the highest mark in the big leagues. They’d never done anything like that before, but assuming they can keep it up, I’m happy with the dimensions.
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And speaking of baseball coverage… could this be true? Oh please oh please let it be true. Bruce Jenkins, you’re next.
Great conversation. Mr. Snorts seems a good Padre fan (and with a shared hatred of the doggers, that is not all bad). So here is a philosophical question I have been thinking about for some time. What does it take for a team to recover from a truly bad trade? Or, from your post, a truly overpriced free agent signing? First, I think recovery from a bad trade is more difficult. And I mean a truly horrendous trade, like the White Sox asshole catcher who must not be named, for Joe Nathan (with or without Liriano). When you make a trade, you have given up a player and a bad trade implies a vast disparity in result. We gave up a good player, from a supposed strength (pitching) and got squat in return. As it turned out, that strength turned out not to be so strong when Nen was unable to come back. We have been trying to find a reliable closer (and set up men) ever since. When you make a bad free agent signing, you give up money. You may tie up your available funds, but you have not depleted your stock of players (except for possible draft picks). Nevertheless, the Giants have been among the higher salaried teams in the league, so it is doubtful that the money is all that critical, especially if the owners believe that some players will develop from our less expensive youth. It may prevent chasing one or more of the premier free agents on the market. Why did we pay Zito so much? Failure to sign Soriano/Matthews/someone else? Failure to adequately assess his pitching prowess? I don't know. So all in all, I'm thinking that a truly bad trade takes a good three years to recover from (and many more, psychically). A bad free agent signing, one or two. You can always pay part of a contract and ship the guy out or find a deeper pockets team like the Yankees. So that brings me around to my point, inasmuch as there is one. I hope with each start that Zito will be a stud. With each shelling, I am less hopeful. But, unless purse strings have tightened, and this does happen in the business world, we will be OK, although Brian Sabean has less room to make mistakes. Developing and preserving the young players are critical, as is NOT making another foolish trade. I noted in the Chron that Mr. Sabean said he was looking for a first baseman. How so? Via trade? If it is for a wily veteran who performs like Richie Aurilia, we are fucked, and I mean Pirates-ville for years. If it moves a promising pitcher, it better be for a damn good, young hitter who can stay with the team for years. If it moves Dave Roberts, hooray, Brian! Sorry for the long winded-ness. I'd like to hear any responses on the question of bad trade vs. bad free agent.