A few days off the grid, and I'm refreshed. It's also my favorite part of the season -- time for wacky desperate personnel decisions. The trade buzz will build over the next two months, but perhaps more exciting for the Giants this year is the amateur draft. We'll get back to that, but first let me make my annual invocation of the Beane Tercile Principle: The
first third of the season is for figuring out what you got, the second
third for making it better, and the third third is for the stretch run.
(The fourth third is for listening to
Car Talk.)
This principle best applies to teams in contention, which the Giants
most indubitably are not. But the rough parameters still apply: the
Giants are starting to figure out what they got, and it's about time to
make it better, not with September but with 2009 and 2010 in mind.
The draft is a big part of that, of course. But so are trades, and the
most obvious candidate right now is Randy Winn. He's hitting .295, a
somewhat empty .295, but enough let's hope to tempt a GM who needs a
solid outfielder to hit second or seventh.
He's also blocking Nate Schierholtz, who is having his
second straight
solid year at Fresno. He's no Jay Bruce, who has forced the Reds to
call him up and DFA Scott Hatterberg, but Schierholtz needs to live or
die in the big leagues.
Fred Lewis is going to take most of the at-bats
in left field, and Aaron Rowand in center. Trading Winn would solve the problem, but it's unclear if the Giants
could get much in return for Winn. It'll probably be either salary
relief or a decent prospect, but not both. If the Giants prefer to wait
'til the winter to trade Winn, here's another solution: Call up
Schierholtz and put him in right field against righties. Winn can play
against lefties and slide over to center from time to time to give
Rowand a break. If Schierholtz is called up and Winn not traded, Durham
would have to go, with Aurilia and Burriss splitting time at second and
Ortmeier playing more first base.
When "How much for Ray Durham" is the most exciting trade question of the summer, it's no wonder we're all geeked up over the draft. The team picks fifth overall, its highest position in more than a decade. I won't get too much into the prospects. Grant has been running great profiles of each possible pick, the most recent
a discussion of Georgia prep shortstop Tim Beckham, posted today. But a bit of chatter is in order.
The old baseball pearl says draft for talent, not for need, but God oh God, do
the Giants need a hitter who will mash in the middle of their 2010 lineup. So I'll simply throw in a guess that the Giants will pick a position player. Peter Magowan said they were leaning that way, though it's generally not wise to put too much weight on the words of a lame duck. Quack. I'll waddle a bit further. If the Giants had the number-one pick, and I were in charge of it, I might take Buster Posey, the catcher for Florida State. Bengie Molina is a Giant through 2009, and it's highly unlikely the team will have an heir apparent ready for April 2010. The only legitimate catching prospect behind Molina in the system is Pablo Sandoval. He's
tearing it up right now in San Jose, but he's no reason not to draft the best catching prospect since, maybe, Joe Mauer. (Where did I read that? I can't find it now, dammit.)
The chances of Posey falling to fifth in the draft are slim, but if availability were no object, this is how I would pick:
* Posey
* Sure-fire no-doubt will-definitely-mash first baseman
* Incredibly skilled shortstop who will field nearly as well as Bocock or Burriss and hit much better
* Pitcher
Should the Giants ignore the "best available talent" rule of thumb and draft according to need this year? Discuss.
ELM,
Sorry lefty I'm gonna have to disagree with you about drafting a catcher first, especially since the Giants are in need of a hitter. Catchers are almost as likely to get hurt as pitchers, hence that is why young players that mash are often switched to another position. In addition, catchers often take longer to develop into a top flight receiver.
I think the Giants have their eye on the top rated first baseman in the draft (sorry can't remember his name, think it starts with an M?)