When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

05.15.2008
Sabean on the Waterfront

SMALL PRINT UPDATE: Merkin Valdez went on the DL with an elbow strain, and lefty Alex Hinshaw, who’s been closing games with extreme prejudice in Fresno, is now up. In fact, he just made his major league debut after Tyler Walker pissed kerosene all over the embers of the Astros’ campfire.

***

Uh-oh. Hank Schulman tells us in this morning’s Chronnie that Brian Sabean thinks the 2008 Giants can be contenders. No one-way ticket to Palookaville for these guys. This by itself is not a bad thing. Optimism is nice. It motivates players, and it encourages fans to come out and scream for their hometown boys. Nothing wrong with that.

But when optimism gets in the way of the rebuilding process, which has gotten off to a good start, it can be foolish. Let’s run through some of Sabean’s comments and interpret them.

"I think we've come a long way. When you consider some of our challenges in spring training and some of the question marks, we've got to be considered one of the most improved teams in baseball. With the exception of two series, the Milwaukee series and Pittsburgh series, we've held our own no matter who've we've played.”

True, but much of the perceived improvement — ie, the Giants aren’t in last place — comes at the expense of the Padres and Rockies, who are even worse than the Giants. With a healthy Vizquel and an improving Bowker, the offense could improve marginally (that’s if Rowand and Lewis keep on their current pace), but let’s face it, this team can’t hit very well.

"You're seven games under .500. That's where you don't want to be, but I really feel good about the energy around the club and I feel good about some of our choices.”

What’s an interview with Sabean without horribly mangled syntax? (His words are everywhere you don’t want to be.) But I feel good about the energy, too, and yes, Brian, some of your choices — namely not trading Tim Lincecum for Alex Rios or Jonathan Sanchez for Joe Crede, and picking up Jose Castillo as a placeholder at third — have been wise.

“We've now got a solution at first base. We've got a solution at third. We've gotten Omar (Vizquel) back. Freddie Lewis has come into his own and (Emmanuel) Burriss has been a real factor lately.”

John Bowker + Rich Aurilia = Solution at 1B? Not quite. I’m glad Bowker is getting an extended look, but I’m not quite ready to call him a solution. Perhaps Sabean is using a different definition of the word. Yes, he must be, because Jose Castillo is not a solution at third, either. He’s a stopgap.

I agree 100% about Lewis, and Burriss, well, he’s better than Bocock.

Sabean said he does not contemplate moving his most marketable experienced players before the trade deadline, as many rebuilding teams do. Catcher Bengie Molina and outfielder Randy Winn, both signed through 2009, might yield the most in return. But as of now, Sabean plans to keep them.

Here comes the backslide. With the Giants’ most promising catching prospect in high-A ball, Molina is a keeper for now, I agree, but why not trade Randy Winn in the face of a good offer? I like Randy Winn, Steve Nash likes Randy Winn, most Giant fans like Randy Winn. But he’s not a cornerstone of this team and he’s blocking the development of Nate Schierholtz, who, if he continues to hit this way in Fresno, has little reason to stay in the minors beyond 2008.

Besides, what the hell to do with Dave Roberts when he comes off the DL? Lewis better not go back to AAA or the bench, so either Roberts or Winn must go. What’s Sabean thinking? Here’s a clue:

“In Randy's case it's the same thing, somebody who is so versatile, a switch-hitter who can play all three outfield positions. [His] relative value is going to be consistent no matter what year it is or who you have around [him].”

That sounds an awful lot like a good reason to trade Winn, not keep him. I’m inclined to consider Sabean’s description a not-so-subtle sales pitch to 29 other GMs, but his track record of late — keeping veterans at the deadline when he thinks there’s a chance to contend — is not promising.

We can assume that Cain and Lincecum are still off the table, but Jonathan Sanchez is an interesting case. The Giants need to assess which Sanchez is the future Sanchez: the one who went eight strong with 10 Ks against Cincy, or the one who has walked 13 in the 14 innings since then? If another team is willing to pony up serious young offensive talent for him, the Giants should at least mull it over.

One good sign: there was no mention in Schulman’s article of Ray Durham. Perhaps he was edited out of the final copy, but for now I’ll take the omission as a sign he’s not a key part of the veteran savvy that will lead the Giants to a stunning turnaround.

Oh, and re. last night’s game: Walking the pitiful Jose Cruz Jr. should be a felony punishable with a minimum of two years’ imprisonment. Shame on the Special Agent. Boo.

Is Sabean sending coded messages? Are you worried that the rebuild will get derailed? Discuss.  









[May 15, 2008 2:09 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Zo said

I could not agree more. I have put up a much less eloquent iteration of my fear of the perception of contention at http://raisingmattcain.blogspot.com. Yikes!

[May 15, 2008 3:30 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Scott said

I think most of what he's saying is PR to keep the season ticket holders happy. I think even Sabean knows that a team that scores 3.5 runs per game has little or no chance of making the playoffs.

It's worrisome if he's not considering other options at 1st and 3rd (Andy Marte, etc.) but I hope that he's playing hard to get with Winn. Please.

[May 15, 2008 8:09 PM]  |  link  |  reply
MrLomez said

"Are you worried that the rebuild will get derailed?"

When was it ever railed?

I love Winn as much as the next guy but he's gotta be moved at the first good offer.

Same goes for Sanchez. His trade value is higher than ever and he could potentially net a top prospect (Elvis Andrus anyone).

The next move is to get a corner infielder who hits BOMBS. Hopefully a guy with a lot of swagger and chip on his shoulder. I'm tired of these candy-ass doubles hitters who freeze up as soon as they get to the show.

[May 16, 2008 1:41 AM]  |  link  |  reply
reeky said

GAAAAAARRRRRRRARRRRHRHHHHGHGHGHGGGG!!!!!!!!!

[May 16, 2008 5:18 AM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive said

As I noted on Bay City Ball and you noted above, ELM, this is all management speak, good management practices.

I disagree, most of the fans thought the Giants were lower than the cockroach crushed under a steel-tipped shoe, and the Giants have had their moments of good play and good games.

I was going to post this on my blog but I'll go with it here: if you take out Zito's 0-8 team record when he's pitching, and look at just the rest of the team, the Giants are right around .500. Now, of course, we probably would have lost a number of them anyway because he was facing other team's aces, but when Zito is right (like the end of last season), he can win a fair number of games too.

Toss in the 0-6 record while Roberts was in there stinking it up, and now Lewis look esconced in LF, and that is another plus going forward, to go with your points on Vizquel and Bowker.

And Rowand, people point to his home parks, but his career road numbers are pretty close to his home numbers, .818 at home, .804 on the road. And these numbers are damped down by his injury year. He can just plain hit, which has been my point since we signed him.

I don't see the rebuild getting derailed. You mention his habit of keeping veterans at the trade deadline without pointing out the main reason he did that: the Giants were paying Bonds $20M per season, you don't pull the rug on the season when you are paying him that much money and we are still relatively close at the trade deadline.

I think Sanchez has talked his way out of SF. Speaking up about Bochy when he got took out early? Shows his stupidity two ways, first in not recognizing that his performance stunk, two in talking about it publicly. Then recently (FINALLY) figuring out, after umpteen years of playing baseball that, yeah, it might be a good idea to hold the runner on base and not give him that extra base (he was 0 of 6, which is unacceptable for a LHP). Can we all say "headcase"?

I assume we would be able to get a pretty good young hitter for him, the question is where in the field. Probably 3B or SS, we have pretty good prospects elsewhere, maybe throw in C too.

Plus, we got Correia and Misch, plus Lowry once he gets off the DL, to fill the other two spots, so we can definitely afford to trade someone from the rotation in the summer, after Correia comes back and hopefully still do as well.

I think the rebuild will continue fine, there has been no reason to think otherwise this season, he DFAed Kline, he went with young guys at 1B and 3B and not pick up retreads like Casey or Hillenbrand or Crede.

[May 16, 2008 11:23 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Edward said

I hope i am mistaken, but Winn has a no trade clause, no? Even if he might wave the clause under the right circumstances, this would certainly limit the ability to trade him.

[May 16, 2008 11:52 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Chris replied to Edward

It's a limited no-trade clause.

"limited no-trade clause 2008-09 (Winn may block deals to 10 clubs)"

[May 18, 2008 8:44 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Edward replied to Chris

Thank you for the clarification!