When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

07.15.2008
All-Star Breather: The Giants Bullpen

I'm not much for exhibition folderol, but Josh Hamilton just put on an unbelievable show. He's not the Home Run Derby champion due to a lackluster final round, but who cares? Extra kudos to the 71-year-old high school coach from Hamilton's home town who threw all those pitches. Get that man some Tiger Balm. (Best line about the Derby so far comes from BP's Joe Sheehan: "The House That Ruth Built, 85 years old, goes out as The House That Hamilton Knocked Down.")

Before we discuss bullpen strategy between now and April 2009, I want to answer a bullpen-related question reader Frank asked last week:

Would you blame Saturday's loss on Bochy for bringing in [Brian] Wilson in a tie game, with him facing pitching an unknown number of potential innings AND his being demonstrably poor in non-save situations? Or could Bochy be trying to put Wilson in a 'new' situation for his future development?

For those who missed the game, it was tied 7-7 after nine innings. Wilson pitched a scoreless tenth despite a leadoff walk then came back for the 11th. A single by the opposing pitcher, a walk, a bunt, and another single scored the winning run. No, I wouldn't blame Bochy for bringing in Wilson for more than one inning. Any relief pitcher from time to time has to go more than one, closers no exception, especially in extra innings. Wilson also hadn't worked in a week, so he should have had plenty of juice.

But Frank brings up a good point. Wilson is mostly a one-inning guy -- take a look at his game log -- as most closers are, unfortunately. And he has a tendency to pitch to the situation. If he has more than a run to work with, he's not as sharp, and he rarely gets a 1-2-3 inning. Despite all this, he's still ranked #6 in the majors in WXRL, quite impressive. None of his pen-mates are in the top 50.

What we're seeing, I hope, is simply the maturation of a young hotshot learning how to be a pitcher. His quote this weekend was telling -- he said he'd been trying to throw more strikes, but the Cubs were hitting them, so now he's going back to just throwing as hard as he can. That's the lesson he's trying to learn: when to rear back and when to take a little off. I also think he needs to throw inside more to right-handed batters to keep them from leaning out and taking his fastball the opposite way.

So in a sense every situation Bochy puts Wilson in is a new one -- or at least an educational one. The good news is that he's fairly raw and he's still getting the job done. It often ain't pretty, but think how he'll dominate if he throws more quality strikes and gets the feel of an off-speed pitch. Let that be my first step for next year's bullpen:

Step 1: Keep Wilson healthy and help him mature. If all goes well, the Giants won't have to worry about the closer role for several years.

Step 2: Listen to trade offers. I don't know if Tyler Walker has much value now, but he should be available. Same with Jack Taschner, who should attract interest from teams that don't take part in the Brian Fuentes auction, and perhaps Keiichi Yabu. Wilson should be off-limits unless someone offers a middle-of-the-order bat and more; other younger arms should be part of the discussion, too. I've seen in discussion threads the suggestion of Alex Hinshaw as a potential closer. Well, maybe, but I sure wouldn't trade Wilson and pencil Hinshaw in for next year. I'd be reluctant to trade Hinshaw, unless it's for A.J. Pierzynski. I might even throw in Henry Sosa and Tim Alderson.

Step 3: Barring trades or injuries, end the bullpen carousel until September. Sadler, Threets and Misch know what they need to do to improve, so let them do it in Fresno the rest of the year. Let Hinshaw, Romo, and Matos get a couple more big-league months under their belts.

Step 4: Don't Mess With the Merkin. Merkin Valdez could be a closer down the road. Let's hope he's not seriously injured -- or re-injured, seeing how he fought back from Tommy John surgery to make the team this year. It doesn't look good, what with a DL stint and two setbacks already, but I'm keeping my fingers crossed. He's going to Alabama to see some top doctors, and if his arm problem isn't serious, the Giants nonetheless should be extra-careful with Valdez. Get him healthy and ready for 2009.

The bullpen has not been very good this year, but with a healthy Wilson as the anchor, Valdez setting up, and tons of good young arms, there shouldn't be much need for external solutions this winter.
 
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[July 15, 2008 10:11 AM]  |  link  |  reply
elaich said

You want to bring Pierzinski back? Don't we have enough problems already?

[July 15, 2008 1:15 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM replied to elaich

Yes. In fact, I want the San Francisco Pierzynskis to play in AT&Pierzynski Park.

[July 15, 2008 12:05 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Chris said

I think Valdez could be a long shot at this point.

I'm not sure I believe that closers pitch worse in non-save situations because you're taking an already small sample, and cutting it in half, making it even smaller and harder to draw conclusions from.

For example, Billy Wagner has a better ERA in non-save situations than save situations.

You should use your closer by the game situation (higher leveraged situations means you should use your best relievers) and not what inning it is.

[July 15, 2008 1:12 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM replied to Chris

>>You should use your closer by the game situation (higher leveraged situations means you should use your best relievers) and not what inning it is.

By baseball standards this is a radical concept. Use the closer in the seventh inning?? Egads! It'll take 20 years to get managers to see the light, and players won't like it either. They're firm believers in everyone having their proper place--middle relief, setup, and closer.

The save is one of the dumbest statistics in the world of sports.

[July 15, 2008 2:14 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Chris replied to ELM

>> The save is one of the dumbest statistics in the world of sports.

You said it. It is very different thinking because baseball is very entrenched in the "roles" aspect, especially for the bullpen.

I was looking at the leverage scores for the Giants bullpen yesterday and Tyler Walker has a score of 1.80. Brian Wilson has a score of 1.88, meaning that the Giants have been using Walker in some very high leveraged situations. Nearly as much as they've used Brian Wilson.

(1.0 is average leverage)

That's pretty unforgivable if you ask me.

[July 15, 2008 2:31 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM replied to Chris

In his defense, Walker started the year on fire, throwing extremely well through April and first week of May. He desrved to be in high-leverage situations. His season sort of turned with that dreadful Houston game in which he gave up a big home run to Darin Erstad.

I'd argue that he should be de-leveraged, except the problem is the Giants play so many tight ballgames, there will likely be more than one high leverage moment per game for the bullpen. You can't just have one guy take all the high-leverage situations.

[July 15, 2008 2:44 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Chris replied to ELM

No, you're right but it's been clear that Walker has struggled some. He has been unlucky, his HR/F% of 16.7% is pretty high.

He's wild, but I'd like to see Bochy use Hinshaw in some more late inning situations, to see what he does. I'm also on the Romo bandwagon.

[July 17, 2008 3:30 AM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive replied to Chris

Per your comment about relievers, small samples, no?

[July 17, 2008 8:50 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Chris replied to obsessivegiantscompulsive

Sure, he could improve this year but he's got a little over 212 major league innings pitched that tell me he's not very good, or very bad, he's just meh.

[July 15, 2008 2:52 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Chris replied to ELM

Here's the leverage scores if anyone is interested.

1. Brian Wilson - 1.88
2. Tyler Walker - 1.80
3. Tim Lincecum - 1.30
4. Jack Taschner - 1.14
5. Merkin Valdez - 1.12
6. Brad Hennessey - 1.09
7. Keichii Yabu - 1.07
8. Billy Sadler - 0.94
9. Alex Hinshaw - 0.88
10. Vinnie Chulk - 0.88
11. Erik Threets - 0.77

[July 15, 2008 4:07 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Brian replied to Chris

Chris, where I can find the leverage scores?

[July 15, 2008 4:37 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Chris replied to Brian

I get them from BP but I think Baseball Reference also posts them, but I can't be sure.

Fangraphs may also have them.

[July 15, 2008 3:18 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Boof said

A couple of things:

Totally agree about the "pitching inside" point with Wilson. The constant pounding of the outside corner makes his fastball more hittable. If the hitter has to account for the potential fastball buzzing his hands, ribs, earhole, he's not going to be diving into many pitches trying to fight them off to right field. The occasional fastball high & tight is a weapon that he should be employed a lot more often. He needs to be more "effectively wild."

Hate to break to everyone, but Walker sucks. It's not a matter of leverage or de-leverage or anything related to that. Walker is just not very good. Period. Why Boulderhead keeps running him out there in tight situations is beyond me. If we are trying to school the "kids" and build a team for the future, he has to start putting them in positions where they have to handle adversity. So what if they lose some games in the process. The Giants are going anywhere. Let the kids play and get rid of the guys that won't be here next year.

[July 15, 2008 3:21 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Frank said

I am not picking on Chris, here, who is an intelligent and informed poster. But I just cringe when fans say "bring up Joe," or "make Pete a closer" or "start John," to see what they can do. I think the idea of having first year guys, like Hinshaw, Romo, even Burris, etc play in less leveraged situations, or part time (for position players) is far wiser than "throw them in, see if they can swim." Now, Bochy I do think definitely shows preference for vets over young players, but I wouldn't paint Righetti with that brush. I think they (the coaches) are more in a position to determine if a player, particularly a pticher, is ready to face more dangerous hitters, more highly leveraged situations.

[July 15, 2008 5:03 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM replied to Frank

Two comments:

- Walker doesn't suck. He's mediocre, with brilliant outings, or longer stretches as I noted above, and disasters. He's not nor probably will never be an elite reliever, but he's useful.

- I think the Giants have done a good job giving the young guys some leveraged experience in addition to garbage time. In one of Hinshaw's first outings, if I remember correctly, he struck out Jim Thome in a very close game. How's that for leveraged?

[July 16, 2008 4:05 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Zo said

A couple of points. Pretty much all relievers are mediocre, with the exception of closers. Generally, that is why they are relievers. So you are really talking about minor differences, and those can vary throughout a year. Walker could be traded, then look brilliant. As ELM, pointed out, he started out well, but sucked on a number of occasions recently, hence the current perception and the season long "leverage" scores. Also, closers are expensive. Good closers are really expensive. If Wilson can fulfill the role, and so far he has done pretty well, then we have a lot of money left over to help us sign the next Barry Zito. Just kidding! We can put it towards a hitter.

[July 17, 2008 3:46 AM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive said

I think part of the reason the Giants might be running Walker out there in a significant role is because they are trying to showcase him for a late season trade to a contender looking for an experienced former closer. They probably won't get much of a prospect back, but if they did their scouting OK, they might get another player like Denker or Pichardo who might prove useful (or if not, like Alfredo Simon who didn't and didn't come close).

As much as I like Taschner's closer attitude, if we can get a nice prospect out of him in trade, I would go for it. Hinshaw's strikeout power makes Taschner's time as a Giant on the short side. Hopefully the Brewers are willing to offer a nice position prospect for him so that he wins with the trade too.

Kiss Valdez off, if he comes back, great, but he's looking more like an Ainsworth or Francisco Liriano.

Ain't many more pitchers who look ready to come up for a try in the bullpen except for Gino Espinelli, so your wish probably will come true except in the case of a trade opening up a spot or two.

[July 17, 2008 5:01 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM replied to obsessivegiantscompulsive

>>he's looking more like an Ainsworth or Francisco Liriano.

I'll take another Liriano, who's mowing down AAA hitters this summer and ready to return to the bigs.