When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

07.14.2008
All-Star Breather: The Giants Infield

Giants 4, Cubs 2: Thanks to Tim Lincecum, we’ll spend the All-Star break not stewing over a crummy losing streak but remembering a victory that underscored how the Giants must play in the next year or two or three to become respectable again. It will take consistently excellent pitching, stout defense, a couple timely hits, and an opponent’s blunder (in this case Chicago RF Mark DeRosa’s misplay of Lincecum’s liner into a triple).

They have little margin for error. We’ll see an occasional comeback or improbable outburst of runs, but over the long run this team must win a lot of 4–2 ballgames. There are no middle-of-the-order thumpers in this team’s future unless it makes a blockbuster trade or an ill-advised free-agent signing. There are simply no top-line hitters in the high minors. Nate Schierholtz is the best, and it’s a big question mark whether he’ll be any better at the plate than Randy Winn (and without the defense). BP’s Kevin Goldstein is less generous. In his notes on yesterday’s Futures Game, he says Nate “looks like a Four-A guy to anyone with eyes.” Someone could jump out, Bowker-like, and surprise us, but at best we’re talking complementary pieces, not lineup-changing forces of nature.

So we’re back to musing over how this team can take a modest leap forward next year, and again the next, while it waits for its teenage prodigies to arrive next decade. Each day of the break I’ll discuss moves the Giants could or should make between now and opening day 2009 to build various parts of the club. Today let’s tackle the infield.

Step 1: Say goodbye to Omar and find the best defensive SS possible. Can Ivan Ochoa be an everyday player, flash the leather and get on base 33% of the time, an acceptable figure if he’s a defensive star? We need to find out. Play him extensively in the second half, please.

Step 2: Sign Rich Aurilia to a one-year contract extension. Really. It has to be cheap — no more than $2 million or so — but Richie still kills lefties, .873 OPS this year and nearly .500 SLG career. If Bowker is indeed next year’s starting 1B, Aurilia can take the occasional platoon start, fill in at 3B, and be a good weapon off the bench. He will also be 3B insurance in case the team can’t figure out other options. Dark-horse 3B candidate: keep an eye on Ryan Rohlinger, who’s doing well since his promotion to AA. He hit some bombs in spring training this year to put himself on the front office’s radar screen.

Step 3: Pray for Kevin Frandsen and a full recovery from his Achilles rupture. If not, the Giants have big decisions at 2B. Durham almost assuredly is gone and Denker won’t likely be ready for a full-time job in ‘09. Velez? Don’t hold your breath. Their best bet after Frandsen might be Jose Castillo, who played 2B most of his career before this year. Problem is, his glove there is rated poorly here (Rate2 under “Fielding Statistics; 100 is average) and here. And he’s showing little signs of great improvement at the plate; he’ll likely be league-average, at best. The question is, do the Giants take a flyer on a one-year contract as insurance in case Frandsen fizzles? Solution: Trade Durham and give Castillo plenty of reps at 2B in the second half to see how he responds.

Step 4: More Bowker. He goes into the break with mediocre “triple slash” numbers (.274 / .317 / .449) but has generally improved each month and deserves to test his skills against lefties in the second half.

Free agents? Peruse this list and tell me if there’s anyone worth signing. Orlando Hudson is intriguing but he’ll command top dollar. Mark Teixiera will be foolishly expensive. Joe Crede, Hank Blalock, Edgar Renteria, Orlando Cabrera, Rafael Furcal…hmm. When Furcal is healthy, he’s a force on offense and defense. Coming off two banged-up years but only 30 years old, he might be willing to take a short, incentive-rich deal to prove his worth.



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[July 14, 2008 6:01 PM]  |  link  |  reply
reeky said

I've wondered how much Ol' Cream of Wheat was involved in the Dominican Surge, and the Rodriguez article underscores his involvement. I guess it really helps recruitment when you speak the language, eat the food, are a revered hero, etc. A few more of these signings and I might forgive those 3rd-game lineups and excessive bullpen warmups!

[July 14, 2008 7:53 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Frank said

Lefty, I agree with your analysis that we need, and have needed for a few years, significant new stud-blood at 2b/3b/SS. I would be surprised if we brought in a FA OF. We have a very good defensive OF, and their hitting is not why we are many games below 500. ie, we are more than adequate in the OF. We are wholly inadequate in the IF, even with a resurgent, glove of steel, Durham. But, as you observe, where will a make-over IF come from? I have always liked Furcal - smart, competitive, agressive. I saw a Giant/Dodger game last year in LA. An exciting series, as always. Mid game, with runners on, a bunting situation, Furcal squares to bunt, Feliz charges, and Furcal bunts a soft line drive over Feliz' head. Brilliant. I don't understand why more good bunters don't utilize that play more often.
For next year, I would prefer to bring in a SS (Furcal?) and a 3b (since we don't have one) and let Burris and Frandsen battle for 2b. The only caveat is to see what Ochoa can do the second half and maybe we don't need a Furcal. But Ochoa (or Burris) at SS, and Frandsen or Burris at 2b means we need a serious bomber at 3b - and I don't see that happening.

[July 14, 2008 7:58 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Frank said

I meant to say (and got distracted - work can be such an imposition) that, all things being equal, I am fine with bringing Richie back as bench player/platoon 1b. EXCEPT if Bochy is reupped. It seems to me Bochy determines regulars based on age and little else. A manager that could recognize Richie as a backup/platoon player, fine, sign Richie. If Boch is re-signed, you have to remove the temptation.

[July 14, 2008 10:07 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Darthvedder said

I think the first thing that we should all agree on is unless we sign AROD, Pujols, and another unattainable slugger this team will not contend next year either. We don't need injured Dodgers in the infield. Furcal is a best an average shortstop prone to mental lapses. He spends to much time on the DL. We don't need to sign anyone over 30 for awhile. We need to see if Burris, Ochoa, Denker, Bowker,etc. can play. We need to see now. We should trade Durham, Molina (after signing Posey),Aurilla. Well anyone not named Lincecum, Lewis and Cain that can get us a prospect that can play in the majors. We need to buy some time to get the minor league stocked and still have at least Lincecum in four years when we might contend. Richie is nice story. We all love Richie but we need young players and a manager who will play them. Can we get Tom Kelly out of retirement cause Bochy must GO!

[July 14, 2008 11:10 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

>Furcal is a(t) best an average shortstop prone to mental lapses.

Furcal is at best an All-Star and MVP candidate, as he was his first year in LA.