Giants 4, Cubs 2: Thanks to Tim Lincecum, we’ll spend the All-Star break not stewing over a crummy losing streak but remembering a victory that underscored how the Giants must play in the next year or two or three to become respectable again. It will take consistently excellent pitching, stout defense, a couple timely hits, and an opponent’s blunder (in this case Chicago RF Mark DeRosa’s misplay of Lincecum’s liner into a triple).
They have little margin for error. We’ll see an occasional comeback or improbable outburst of runs, but over the long run this team must win a lot of 4–2 ballgames. There are no middle-of-the-order thumpers in this team’s future unless it makes a blockbuster trade or an ill-advised free-agent signing. There are simply no top-line hitters in the high minors. Nate Schierholtz is the best, and it’s a big question mark whether he’ll be any better at the plate than Randy Winn (and without the defense). BP’s Kevin Goldstein is less generous. In his notes on yesterday’s Futures Game, he says Nate “looks like a Four-A guy to anyone with eyes.” Someone could jump out, Bowker-like, and surprise us, but at best we’re talking complementary pieces, not lineup-changing forces of nature.
So we’re back to musing over how this team can take a modest leap forward next year, and again the next, while it waits for its teenage prodigies to arrive next decade. Each day of the break I’ll discuss moves the Giants could or should make between now and opening day 2009 to build various parts of the club. Today let’s tackle the infield.
Step 1: Say goodbye to Omar and find the best defensive SS possible. Can Ivan Ochoa be an everyday player, flash the leather and get on base 33% of the time, an acceptable figure if he’s a defensive star? We need to find out. Play him extensively in the second half, please.
Step 2: Sign Rich Aurilia to a one-year contract extension. Really. It has to be cheap — no more than $2 million or so — but Richie still kills lefties, .873 OPS this year and nearly .500 SLG career. If Bowker is indeed next year’s starting 1B, Aurilia can take the occasional platoon start, fill in at 3B, and be a good weapon off the bench. He will also be 3B insurance in case the team can’t figure out other options. Dark-horse 3B candidate: keep an eye on Ryan Rohlinger, who’s doing well since his promotion to AA. He hit some bombs in spring training this year to put himself on the front office’s radar screen.
Step 3: Pray for Kevin Frandsen and a full recovery from his Achilles rupture. If not, the Giants have big decisions at 2B. Durham almost assuredly is gone and Denker won’t likely be ready for a full-time job in ‘09. Velez? Don’t hold your breath. Their best bet after Frandsen might be Jose Castillo, who played 2B most of his career before this year. Problem is, his glove there is rated poorly here (Rate2 under “Fielding Statistics; 100 is average) and here. And he’s showing little signs of great improvement at the plate; he’ll likely be league-average, at best. The question is, do the Giants take a flyer on a one-year contract as insurance in case Frandsen fizzles? Solution: Trade Durham and give Castillo plenty of reps at 2B in the second half to see how he responds.
Step 4: More Bowker. He goes into the break with mediocre “triple slash” numbers (.274 / .317 / .449) but has generally improved each month and deserves to test his skills against lefties in the second half.
Free agents? Peruse this list and tell me if there’s anyone worth signing. Orlando Hudson is intriguing but he’ll command top dollar. Mark Teixiera will be foolishly expensive. Joe Crede, Hank Blalock, Edgar Renteria, Orlando Cabrera, Rafael Furcal…hmm. When Furcal is healthy, he’s a force on offense and defense. Coming off two banged-up years but only 30 years old, he might be willing to take a short, incentive-rich deal to prove his worth.
