When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

07.17.2008
All-Star Breather: The Giants Rotation

This is the easiest post in the series. The top four in the Giants rotation should be with the team when it breaks camp next year. Barring injury or trade (a standard caveat for all prognosticationary punditry such as this) Lincecum, Cain and Sanchez will be Giants for years. It would take the Jaws of Death to pry them loose, although I won’t be surprised if teams try. We can only hope that Brian Sabean learned his lesson with the Lincecum-for-Alexis Rios kerfuffle. Who knows? Maybe a rival GM will offer the moon, some crazy-nutso-wonderful package of Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Ian Kinsler and Josh Hamilton. (Would you trade Sanchez straight up for Hamilton? The Rangers wouldn’t, but that’s not my question.)

At the other end of the spectrum is Barry Zito. He isn’t going to be cut. He isn’t going to be traded. We’ll see him next year and the year after that in the rotation or, at worst, long relief. Zito is trying new stuff — fewer moving parts in his windup, a lower arm angle — with mixed but encouraging results the past month. Not easy to do mid-season, but if any athlete can re-learn his craft on the fly under this much pressure, it’s Zito. He’s healthy (we think), open-minded and hard-working. 

Or if you prefer: He’s here. He’s dear. Get used to it.

The only real task other than keeping Caincecumchez healthy and praying for Zito’s resurgence is sussing out the fifth starter.

We thought Kevin Correia would be at least a league-average solution. Thanks to injury and ineffectiveness — perhaps the oblique strain still bothers him — the 5th turn has been a bleak one for the Giants. While Correia was DL’ed, Pat Misch was gopher-plagued, and now Correia has Chulkitis, often losing focus for one batter or one pitch (witness the 0–2 meatball that Jim Edmonds deposited in the bleachers last Saturday).

If a contender wants Correia for the stretch run, the Giants should certainly entertain a trade. More likely, he’ll remain the 5th starter and try to regain the control and the sinker he used down the stretch last year to put together a nice streak of starts. Then he’ll re-compete for the job next spring. 

One other agenda item: whether or not to sign Lincecum to a long-term contract. Those will be interesting negotiations.

***

SMALL PRINT UPDATE: Now listening to Nellie McKay’s Pretty Little Head, which I found on the cheap at a used CD shop in the hinterlands. I knew of her but never heard her music; I figured it would be worth a few bucks, considering she’s talented and eccentric enough to tell her label to go cop a squat because it refused to release a double album. After a couple spins through it, let’s just say her label was right. There are plenty of good ideas and clever lines, but barely enough good material for one disc, let alone two.



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[July 17, 2008 2:19 PM]  |  link  |  reply
trilljester said

ELM: Could you make an argument for NOT signing Lincecum to a long term contract? If so, what would it be? We could trade him for middle of the order bats?

[July 17, 2008 2:25 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Chris said

I'm still a Misch supporter for the 5th starter, but he could relieve too. He did well in the minors when he relieved.

What about Matt Palmer? He's an organizational soldier but if Correia keeps struggling, they might take him out of the 5th spot and move him into the bullpen to "work on things". Palmer is 29-years-old and has no upside, but he might pitch better than Correia has lately.

I'd move Correia so fast it would make your head spin.

Palmer is 29-years-old and has no upside but he might get a chance.

[July 17, 2008 2:26 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Chris replied to Chris

Ignore that last sentence. I sure like to repeat myself sometimes.

[July 17, 2008 2:30 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Chris replied to Chris

For fun, I did Palmer's MLE for his Frseno season this year.

It translates to the majors as:

5-6, 4.50 ERA, 19 G, 19 GS, 106 IP, 107 H, 53 ER, 10 HR, 53 BB, 86 SO, 5 HBP.

That's a decent-ish line for a 5th starter. Correia has a career ERA of 4.73 as a starter.

Just throwing stuff against the wall...

[July 17, 2008 2:46 PM]  |  link  |  reply
John C said

Great post but why seriously entertain keeping Correia around at all? I find it hard to believe that he will be the best option. To quote Denny Green, he is who we think he is. Nothing more. Will Lowry still be on the DL next spring? There is no prospect at AAA or AA who wouldn't be worthy of a longer look?

Correia's on a one-year deal. Anything over .75M for him next season would be a complete waste of both money and what I'm hoping will be an increasingly valuable roster spot.

[July 17, 2008 4:03 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM replied to John C

John C -- all good questions. Let's take this one first:

>>Will Lowry still be on the DL next spring?

At this point I wouldn't count on Lowry coming back. He might, he might not, but the history of pitchers suffering weird complicated frustrating career-ending injuries is too long to ignore. I hope he returns, but he shouldn't be penciled in anywhere.

>>why seriously entertain keeping Correia around at all?

He's young (turns 28 in August), he's still relatively cheap, he's shown promise. Maybe he'll be too expensive for 09 after another arbitration award, but he could prove his worth with a strong second half.

>>There is no prospect at AAA or AA who wouldn't be worthy of a longer look?

No one is pressing the issue. Matt Palmer might deserve a shot as noted above but given his organizational filler status he'd have to absolutely kill in spring training. Nick Pereira hasn't done anything special....maybe Joe MArtinez down in CT? Any thoughts on this out there?

[July 18, 2008 1:57 PM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive replied to ELM

+1, particularly because of how well Correia did in his short stretch of starting last season. I wouldn't give him the #5, but he should be the incumbent with that edge over the contenders, much like this past spring training, assuming he does OK over the rest of the season. If he doesn't improve, then it's an open competition.

[July 17, 2008 5:51 PM]  |  link  |  reply
trilljester said

What happened to Brad Hennessey?

[July 17, 2008 5:51 PM]  |  link  |  reply
trilljester said

What happened to Brad Hennessey?

[July 17, 2008 11:29 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM replied to trilljester

He's in the Fresno rotation and not throwing that well. See for yourself.

[July 18, 2008 8:26 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Chris replied to trilljester

Hennessey: Wheels. Off.

[July 18, 2008 8:54 AM]  |  link  |  reply
trilljester replied to Chris

Ouch, guess he won't be making it up anytime soon.

[July 18, 2008 11:36 PM]  |  link  |  reply
PM said

Correia is worth keeping because he could be a servicable long-relief person even if he cannot hold the starting pitcher job. He did reasonably okay at long-relief and showed some promise. I do not know if they are getting Yabu back next year but Correia may be useful for one more year to see what he can do.

[July 19, 2008 9:44 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Ben said

When I started thinking about prospects in the upper minors that could compete for a rotation role Joseph Martinez was the first to come to my mind as well. Ben Snyder is up in AA now too, but is getting racked around so far, if he settles down and does well down the stretch we shouldn't rule him out either.