When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

07.30.2008
Brian Sabean is Making Everyone Nervous

Adrian Beltre, huh? Henry Schulman says Brian Sabean isn’t adverse to acquiring players who can help the team win next year.

Before we get our panties in a bunch about this infuriating lack of willingness to rebuild, let’s gather Sabean’s direct and indirect statements from Schulman’s article.

Sabean has said he is willing to acquire major-league players, not merely sell those he has, if the deal makes sense for the present and future… [which] Sabean said could be 2009, so even if the Giants will not rent a player who is eligible for free agency this winter, they would consider a player who is signed for one more year. "I think you have to be open minded because of the division we're in."

Whether this is short-sighted idiocy or pragmatism depends on what Sabean is willing to trade. From the noises he’s made in recent weeks it seems clear he won’t trade top young pitchers. That’s good. Unfortunately he also seems unwilling to move Randy Winn and, less unfortunately, Bengie Molina. (I’ve given my opinion on a possible Molina trade here, and it hasn’t changed.) 

So what if Seattle is willing to dump Adrian Beltre and his $12 M in 2009 — and Schulman says the Giants think he’ll improve in a return to the National League — for a middling prospect and lots of salary relief? He wouldn’t be blocking anyone in the Giants’ system. One year of Beltre in ‘09 also keeps the Giants from dipping into the free agent market — lie back and visualize 4 years and $44 M worth of Joe Crede — and it gives them a better option than Castillo or Aurilia (or Denker or Frandsen or Velez). They might even benefit from a contract-year surge. Remember the last time Beltre was on the cusp of free agency? He nearly won the MVP.

Beltre won’t turn this offense into a juggernaut, or even a mid-sized fuel-efficient sedan. It will still wheeze and sputter if Bowker doesn’t improve, Winn remains in the middle of the lineup, and Molina is asked to bat fourth again. So no Jonathan Sanchez for Beltre, please. But I feel fairly confident that Sabean has drawn a circle around certain players who won’t be traded. If a reasonably good player becomes available on the cheap, he’s absolutely right to be open minded about it.

However — and it’s a big However — holding on to people like Randy Winn because he might help the Giants compete next year is a silly notion. Same goes for Jack Taschner, who should attract interest but whom the Giants are now reluctant to trade, according to Schulman.

One last note for the day: this article notes how Bochy is playing Jose Castillo more at second base because “we want to take somewhat of a look at him.” How’s this for a look: .308 OBP / .406 SLG, which puts him next to last among qualifying MLB third basemen. Among second basemen, he’d be among the bottom five OPS. (But ahead of Jeff Kent, Robinson Cano and Freddy Sanchez.)

This contradicts the promise to play Velez, Burriss and Ochoa more often at 2B after the Durham trade. But I suspect the move is a showcase to give teams a chance to evaluate Castillo as a utility infielder. Let’s reserve judgment ‘til after the deadline; I’ll be cheesed off if Castillo the first week of August is still forcing Velez to the bench.



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[July 30, 2008 6:27 PM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive said

Yes, patience is needed to see how things unfold. As I noted on Baggs, if they are going to look at Castillo at 2B, now would be the time to do it. And I would say that it's a bit underwhelming, given his bad rep, that he butchered that ball on Monday.

And as much as I would like to see Burriss and Velez, neither one has really done that much to warrant an extensive look, not like Frandsen and Ortmeier last season when they got extended looks.

People just need to remember, just because they are young don't mean they will perform well when given the AB.

And the way Winn is hitting right now, I wouldn't be surprised if he gets the Omar/Durham speech, and is sat more often to let Lewis or Bowker play in RF, freeing LF for Roberts or 1B for whoever they call up once Aurilia is traded (Baggs noted there might be interest in him), much like Durham last season. Or even hopefully Schierholtz in RF in September after a great Olympics, or even Sandoval at 1B in a September callup.

Plus that the Giants need to weight a lot of different factors in deciding who to play. For example, attendence is down but not greatly so right now, probably because the team hasn't stunk as badly as people on these chatboards thought. If they had instead traded all the old guys for a sack of magic baseballs, as many suggested, and played the young guys, they would most definitely be closer to 110 losses than 100 losses this season, and that much worse in attendance.

I think the Giants are unwilling to bite the bullet on re-building because the history of the Giants in SF is that once they start losing a lot, which is what happens in a rebuild, attendance dries up like a sad prune.

In addition, with Cain and Lincecum in the rotation, you don't want to waste too many of their cheap years rebuilding, you want to return to competitiveness quickly, before those six years are up.

And as I've been saying, if Cain, Lincecum, and now Sanchez, can continue growing and developing as they have been, they will be so good that we won't need much of an offense to win consistently with them in the rotation. And that could come as soon as next year, Lincecum has clearly turned a corner, Cain appears to be turning a corner (see my last blog on his last two games), and Sanchez shows he has the stuff, now just has to be consistent and build arm strength. That plus Wilson continuing to develop and adding one good hitter via free agency to pair with Rowand and Lewis (who looks very good considering he's battling a bunion), could push us back to .500 in 2009, another good hitter in 2009-10 (Sandoval coming up?) could push us to playoff contention.

[July 30, 2008 7:41 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Zo said

Brian Sabean has spent all year making everyone nervous. Well, maybe not Ned Colletti. Anyway, watch what Brian Sabean does, not what he says. If I were a general manager, I would lie through my teeth every time a member of the press got near, and that includes bloggers. For all I know, Brian Sabean may not be exceptionally cagey, he may just be crazy. But it seems to me that the majority of his trades have come as surprises. Beltre could make a good addition. He could get better. There are lots and lots of people who could improve the Giants, it always depends on their cost. The Giants have a lot to do to become a playoff caliber team. Until July 31 (hey, that's tomorrow!), we will see the players that we most want to move on the field in hopes that some other GM will be interested. We can take a couple prospects just like for Ray Durham and use a pile of them to trade for a legit hitter in the off season. Or we can take a fairly young hitter who could contribute within the next couple of years.

[July 30, 2008 10:09 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Anonymous said

If Sabean wanted to increase Winn's trade value, you would have to say publicly that you will not trade him. Privately, you have to say that you will consider most trade offers but you want to keep Winn. It may be standard bargaining ploy.

[July 30, 2008 10:12 PM]  |  link  |  reply
PM said

It may not be a bad idea to play Bowker at 1B, Castillo at 2B, Aurilia at 3B, and Ochoa at SS. Velez has not done anything much to deserve being an everyday player. Aurilia has to be played to keep his trade value up. Then, when he is moved, they should bring back Denker for 2B.

[July 30, 2008 11:16 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

My ideal post-deadline infield:

1B Bowker
2B Velez
SS Burriss
3B Castillo

Ochoa can play SS against tough RH pitchers, as Burriss is extremely weak from the left side. He can also be a late-game defensive sub if the Giants want to get Velez's glove off the field. If Sandoval continues to rake at AA, perhaps he can come up and platoon with Bowker.

[July 31, 2008 1:32 PM]  |  link  |  reply
trilljester said

ELM: Do you think Bowker is going to start coming down to earth? He has looked pretty bad with the bat in the last 2 series. I think the scouts have figured him out and the word is getting around. We'll see how he handles San Diego, but yeah, a demotion after the deadline makes no sense. Maybe more time for Richie at 1B and put Castillo back at 3B, it's hard to watch him try and play 2B.

[July 31, 2008 2:56 PM]  |  link  |  reply
PM said

Are the Giants at any advantage in signing Taschner? Will he be eligible for arbitration or a complete free agent next year? Same for Aurilia? Assuming they are not traded, that is.