When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

07.25.2008
Giants 1, Nats 0: Yes We Cain

I haven’t handed out a Player of Da Game award in a while, so let’s get right to it.

PLODAG: Steve Holm. Surprise! You thought I was going to say Matt Cain, but I’ll get to him in a second. Holm guided Cain to his second-best start of the year, according to the game score measurement, and he pitched in with two sharp ground-ball singles, the second of which started the game-winning rally. 

The Upside: Cain. According to this morning’s reports, his gem was all the more remarkable because he has been hit with the same bug that’s gone around the clubhouse for weeks. He had less oomph on his fastball and thus had to spot it more carefully…. Bing! Did anyone else notice that light bulb click on?

*Throwing 91 MPH on the corners is often better than 96 MPH down the middle.*

Granted, this was the Nats’ lineup, which makes the Giants’ second-stringers look like the Gashouse Gang. If you cried in March at the prospect of Bengie Molina, Cleanup Hitter, try a little taste of Austin (“.216 / .314 / .324 in 245 PAs”) Kearns in the fourth spot. No matter. A four-hit shutout is tough against any team. Kudos to Holm for guiding Cain and for his two singles, the second of which started the game-winning rally.

I loved the decision to let Cain pitch to Zimmerman and Kearns in the ninth, but I wonder if Bochy would make the same decision if Zimmerman weren’t just back from the DL and still nursing a bum shoulder.

Just for fun: Would you trade Cain for Zimmerman straight-up? Assuming his shoulder heals properly, Zimmerman is not yet 24, plays a very solid 3B, and could be a 30–HR guy for years to come. (For what it’s worth, BP projects him to have a generally consistent .365 OBP / .500 SLG the next five years.) If everything breaks his way, Cain could be a Cy Young winner, but the same could be said about Zimmerman and the MVP.



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[July 25, 2008 4:26 PM]  |  link  |  reply
50andstillfly said

NO. Zimmerman is a nice young player with loads of potential, but the shoulder is a ? and he's equally likely to become the next Eric Chavez. Cain is an "anchor of the rotation" type, a big strong workhorse with no mechanical issues, who should be a top line pitcher for the next 10 years. And Cain has almost as much HR power as Zimmerman :)

[July 25, 2008 5:29 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Anonymous replied to 50andstillfly

Yeah, that shoulder is a big question mark. Apparently he's still due for surgery in the off season.

[July 25, 2008 4:35 PM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive said

BP found that to maximize our chances of winning in the playoffs, you need pitchers with high K/9, a great closer, and a good fielding defense. They found no significant correlation between offense and success in the playoffs, not runs scored per game, not any singular offensive metric, save for stolen base attempts (why they tested for that and not SB% or SB, I have no idea, though they did test for Speed Score).

So between Cain and Zimmerman, who can contribute to a high K/9 pitching staff? Though, I will grant that Zimmerman can help with the defense, but 3B is a small share of the chances in the field, whereas a starting pitcher contribute a larger share of IP, plus the rotation is smaller in the playoffs, increasing his influence.

[July 25, 2008 7:32 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Frank said

Unfortunately, I didn't see the game. But I am wondering: Molina, I always thought, calls too many fast balls, expecially to Lincecum and Wilson. So, did Holm call a more varied game, more off speed pitches mixed in than a typical Benji called game?

[July 25, 2008 8:14 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM replied to Frank

According to reports, no. Holm actually called a lot of fastballs b/c Cain had such good control.

[July 25, 2008 11:55 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Jason said

You pose a tough question. Cain was our Lincecum before Lincecum. He is a crowd favorite and he has dazzled but has yet to throw the season that we know he can throw.

Zimmerman looks strong and assuming his shoulder issues were cured, I would still say no to that trade. With a good shoulder, who would contribute more to the team? Cain every 5th game or Zimmerman for 95% of all games? Hmmm....

[July 26, 2008 1:54 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Frank said

Thanks. Interesting.