When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

07.28.2008
The Timeline

It was a dismal weekend at the yard, highlighted only by Tim Lincecum’s 13 strikeouts Saturday and Fred Lewis’s four hits Sunday off Randy Johnson, amazingly the first time a lefty has ever had four hits off the Big Unit. Apparently Johnson himself was impressed and made a grudging gesture of respect toward Lewis late in the game. That’s a big-league atta babe, Freddie.

With the Giants heading south in the standings, a few prospects are heading in the other direction, so why not start dreaming of their arrival in the bigs? All caveats regarding injury and trade apply, but here are reasonable scenarios for advancement for three of the Giants’ hottest farmhands:

Madison Bumgarner: He’s been dominant in the Low-A Sally League all year, and he turns 19 on Aug. 1. Let’s assume he starts 2009 in High-A San Jose and continues to dominate. A mid-season promotion to Double-A isn’t out of the question. But if he’s relying mostly on fastballs, as Baseball America recently reported, he’ll have trouble in the high minors. So let’s not get greedy; even with an ‘09 promotion to Double A, he starts 2010 there and stays most of the year, if not all. That could put him in the bigs, perhaps for just a cup of coffee, at some point in 2011, with a chance to stick permanently in 2012. Call it four years — a year slower than Matt Cain, who spent a year at Low A, split the next year between High A and AA, started the next in AAA and was in the S.F. rotation for good by August. Put Bumgarner on the Cain track and he’d be in the majors in late 2010.

Tim Alderson: He turns 20 in November, effectively a year older than Bumgarner. He’s been a shade short of dominant, though one could argue a 3.11 ERA with 96 K and only 33 BB in 108 innings in the High-A California League, a hitters’ haven, translates into dominance. Put it this way: If Bumgarner posts the same numbers next year with San Jose, we’ll be giddier than kids in a helium-balloon factory. Let’s assume Alderson starts 2009 in Double-A and 2010 in Triple-A. Like Bumgarner, he could see the bigs in 2011.

There’s another caveat worth discussing with these two young pitchers. The Giants will be very cautious with their workloads. Each has already thrown more than 100 innings in their first full pro seasons, so don’t be surprised if they’re shut down after a few more starts. Each year up the ladder, they’ll be expected to stretch out their innings, but even on the fast track, they might not go wire-to-wire in a full big league season. Remember how the Giants shut down Lincecum for most of September last year? And he’s the kid with the rubber arm. We’ve been spoiled with Lincecum and Cain and their perfect health all the way up the chain. It would be foolish to expect the same with Alderson and Bumgarner, so let’s add another year to each expected E.T.A. In fact, we’ll be fortunate and thrilled to have each in the starting rotation by the end of 2012 or start of 2013.

Pablo Sandoval: Finally, a young hitting prospect rising fast. Sandoval emerged this year at High-A with an insane April, cooled off a bit but not enough to stay in San Jose. Now in Double-A, he’s still mashing. He turns 22 next month, and he’s a switch-hitter. At this pace, he’ll start 2009 in Fresno, at worst, though a big-league call-up this September isn’t out of the question given the aggressive promotions the Giants have handed out this year. The organizational philosophy seems to be if you can hit in Connecticut (where the Double-A team plays in an extreme pitchers park) you can hit in the majors. Or, in the case of Brian Bocock, if you can’t hit in the Cal League, what the hell, come on up anyway! Expect Sandoval to compete for a roster spot next spring as the back-up catcher/platoon 1B.

Before we get too excited about a Cain-Lincecum-Bumgarner-Alderson-Sanchez rotation, note that Cain’s contract runs through 2011. Lincecum and Sanchez are under team control through 2012. The odds of all five in the rotation in 2013 are mighty slim. Hey, at least in 2013 the Giants will still have Barry Zito!

(Photo by Anders Rasmussen via a Creative Commons license.)
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[July 28, 2008 2:40 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Anonymous said

Velez and Ochoa are 26 year olds. They need to be tried out this year and given long stints to see if they are worth keeping. How long do the Giants have their rights? I think next year they may run out of options. So, even if Bowker and Burriss are playing better, those two should be given some chances. Ochoa started reasonably well, so more games to him.

[July 28, 2008 3:14 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM replied to

Good question about their options. According to Rob Neyer, once a player makes the 40-man roster he has three years to be sent up and down without fear of losing him. Velez made the 40-man in Dec 06. Seems he'll be out of options after '09. Ochoa was just added and so should be out of options in 2010, if you count this year as the first of three.

If this accounting is correct, the Giants have some time to evaluate them.

[July 28, 2008 3:30 PM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive replied to

Ochoa has never been on the 40 man roster before, so we should have options for him in 2009 and 2010. Velez, not sure when he made 40 man, but since he was first brought up last September, I don't think he was on the 40 man officially until then, and since September is open callups, he probably didn't blow an option until this season, meaning we have options to 2010 on him as well, if I got it right.

Plus, if they are good enough, we control them during their arbitration years as well.

Bowker playing has no bearing on Velez or Ochoa playing.

[July 28, 2008 3:09 PM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive said

One correction: Matt Cain was shut down with a tender right elbow, if I remember correctly, his first professional season. He hasn't had any physical problems since that I'm aware of.

I think it is more of how well you hit in AA vs. other players in the league. Bowker, for example, was in the Top 10 in Eastern League last season, but if you went by his Road numbers, he would have led the league at age 24. Now Sandoval is owning the league and he's only 22.

I think Cain will be signed to an extention into his free agent years, he doesn't sound like he's in it for the money, and he seems very loyal. Lincecum, however, while loyal, was more interested in money in his various drafts, so I can't say either way right now.

[July 28, 2008 3:16 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

Re. Cain and Lincecum extensions into their free agent years: I bet they'll want to wait and see how the Giants rebuild the next year or two before making long commitments. I certainly would if I were in their shoes.

[July 28, 2008 5:19 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Jonathan said

If both continue along their present trajectories, I don’t see any way that the Giants will have enough money to re-sign both Cain and Lincecum (and also build a competitive lineup)due to the Zito contract. The Giants have set their own salary bar for middling starters, much less All-Star caliber pitchers, and won’t be able to sign either Cain or Lincecum for less than Zito got. Thus, unless the Giants are prepared to invest $60 million annually in three starting pitchers in each 2012 and 2013, they will have either Cain or Lincecum after 2011, but not both. It’s impossible to add anything to the discussion of Zito’s contract, but this, to me, is the most excruciating element of the deal, that Magowan inked an albatross for the part of the team where we LEAST needed long-term help.

[July 28, 2008 9:37 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Ryan said

I believe during a recent interview (either an article (Shulman maybe) or a on KNBR), Sabean said Sandoval will be up this year if he keeps at it, though likely as a sept. call up.

It does seem safe to say that MadBum will be a high a, and alderson likely in AA (though that is a bit less sure). How they do there is what will determine what track they are on.

From what I have encountered elsewhere, the 'rely' bit on the BA report on MadBum should come with a caveat: MadBum has improved his breaking ball , and is throwing it more--though still has a way to go. So the rely is more of the 'throwing off the fastball', than the 'only using' sort, and thus the better sort of relying.

Also, it isn't clear the upper minors would prove that much a challenge to him, as a dominant fastball (and not just very good) can wreck shop there.

[July 29, 2008 12:06 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM replied to Ryan

>>and alderson likely in AA (though that is a bit less sure)

Why? Unless the giants want to give him another year in familiar surroundings, there's no reason to send him to High-A again. He's been excellent and, unless he melts down in the final month, has nothing to prove at that level.