When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

08.22.2008
Throwing Darts at 2009, Part 2

Part 1 is here.

On to the pitching staff. I actually started with this part a few days ago,  but I got to the bullpen and started twitching and drooling on the keyboard. Beyond Brian Wilson, what in Jehosephat's name can you predict about this bunch of goons? Bruce Bochy had a recent brainstorm that Tyler Walker should only be out there against righties, who are hitting under .200 against him. But even if he thrives for the next six weeks, is anyone really enthused about penciling in The Big Sweaty as Official ROOGY of Opening Day 2009?

I dig him -- S.F. Homie and all that -- and that rumble you hear, the collective throat-clearing of all our local Mando-haters just now realizing Tyler is their new anti-guy, only makes me want to defend him more. So if he wants to come back on the cheap, fine. No guarantees about the eighth inning, or any inning, but I'll mildly advocate for him simply because depth is always nice.

Speaking of damning with faint praise: Jack Taschner. Again, cool nicknames only go so far, and "The Special Agent" goes farther than most, but I'm not feeling the love these days. Nearly 1.5 baserunners per inning and difficulty against righties is not what you want from your main set-up guy, and that's what Bochy made Taschner at the same time he (slightly) demoted The Big Sweaty. But good to have around? Sigh. Be lights-out against lefties in the final six weeks, and I'll show more, shall we say, enthusiasm.

See? I've got that same feeling again -- relievers are relievers are relievers, Romo Sadlershaw Matospineli blah blah blah. Let's just say that any of these young 'uns could stick, or none of 'em could. What I really want for Christmas is a healthy Merkin Valdez and an in-command Alex Hinshaw. Those two plus Billy Sadler minus half the walks could make things interesting next year. If Valdez remains a question mark through the rest of the season, watch for Sabean to shoot for a grizzled veteran reliever or two. Any of these guys worth a few mil? How about another round of Keiichi Yabu? My gut feeling is Sabean will convince management to set aside some dollars for at least one expensive reliever.

Now the easy part: Lincecum, Cain, Sanchez, Zito, Correia. Those are your starting five, though I can't shake the suspicion that one could be traded this winter. Not Lincecum and not Zito, for wildly divergent reasons. But Correia might intrigue a bargain shopper, Sanchez could be a sell-high kind of move, and Cain, well, it would be like Billy Beane trading Danny Haren. Bewildering, disappointing, but the haul Brian Sabean could get in return makes the conversation worthwhile. That conversation must not involve Sabean drinking Jager shots at a topless bar in Vegas, and it must include the fact, sometimes overlooked, that the Giants don’t have an upper-level minor leaguer ready to step into Cain’s shoes. Matt Palmer was the top guy on the AA-AAA roster when Sanchez went down. Proceed soberly, my friend.

Much will depend on Noah Lowry, who reportedly might throw in winter ball. Will he be any good? Who knows. Just counting on him to be healthy would be reckless. His injury was too weird, too severe, and too intimate with his left arm. The other wild card is Correia, not just how he pitches down the stretch but how much he might make in arbitration this winter. This was his first arb year, and he signed for a touch more than a mil. Double that, and we enter some interesting cost/benefit territory.



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[August 22, 2008 5:45 PM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive said

Some pitchers might come to the fore next season from AA:

Joe Martinez and Adam Cowart for starters, Justin Hedrick and Kelvin Pichardo (make it so #1!) for relievers. Justin is old for AA but at 27 next season, could finally be ready for the big show.

But yeah, no big shiny "can't miss" prospect next season unless Bumgarner and Alderseon makes the jump to AAA in 2009 and continues to wow people. Henry Sosa is a dark horse candidate there too.

[August 22, 2008 5:55 PM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive replied to obsessivegiantscompulsive

Oh, and I think Sanchez is the big carrot to trade this winter, based on his success. Think Hamilton/Volquez type of trade.

Otherwise, why would the Giants say that they are going to continue pitching Sanchez? If there are physical problems, why not just shut him down for the season once the DL stint is over? Keeping him out there and starting is what you do if you hope to show that he is healthy (but maybe tired) going into the winter, and not injured.

And prior to this breakout year, there was talk of him for Carlos Gomez, who was a major prospect in the Johan Santana trade (though he hasn't shown he is ready yet this season). So his value should be that much better given his success and now status as a starter.

But that brings up a good question to ponder: if we could trade for a top position prospect (say for Sanchez), what position would you want? Obviously no OF. 3B seems the obvious choice, but we have no SS really in the system, so perhaps someone like Hu with the Dodgers (though that won't ever happen; someone like him), with strong defense and some power, would do the trick too.

C should hopefully be set with Sandoval and Posey in the system. 1B is probably Villalona eventually, Bowker/Ishikawa/Sandoval until then. 2B has a multitude of candidates, with Frandsen the most likely suspect.

Then again, if it's a really outstanding offensive OF, that would be hard to pass up as well.

[August 22, 2008 6:54 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM replied to obsessivegiantscompulsive

>>if we could trade for a top position prospect (say for Sanchez), what position would you want?

Position is almost irrelevant. I would want a big, big bat. The next Cal Ripken at SS would be nice, and 1B/3B would be fine, too, but I wouldn't turn down a big 2B bat just because Frandsen, Denker, or Velez are already there. Same with the OF. IF say, the big bat was a LF-only type, I'd move Lewis to RF and trade Winn or keep him as a very talented 4th OF.

[August 22, 2008 5:56 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Chris said

Cowart will be a reliever, I believe since he was promoted to AA he's been a reliever. That's always been his upside even though the Giants had him starting in A-ball.

Martinez is interesting, he's got a nice GB% this year and could be a 4-5 starter if everything goes right, though he's most likely to be a bullpen guy.

[August 22, 2008 5:59 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Chris replied to Chris

Never mind, Cowart has made 21 starts in AA this year but he's been relieving since mid-July.

Cowart is one of my favorite guys, but even as a supporter, I think he's got a 1% chance of being a starter in the majors. He's always been viewed as a reliever.

[August 22, 2008 6:49 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM replied to Chris

I agree about Cowart. Seems like he hit the ceiling as a starter in AA. Joe Mart's more interesting but he doesn't make me want to trade any current starter to clear a space for him.

[August 25, 2008 11:32 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Boof said

I'm all for trading Sanchez. Two guys they would have to give some thought about would be Garrett Atkins & JJ Hardy.

Hardy could be available as he could start getting semi-expensive, the Brewers have a replacement almost ready, and they need the pitching (don;t see Sabathoa resigning with the Brewers).

Atkins is probably the odd man out in Colorado as they will want to move either him or Holliday or both. With Ian Stewart succeeding and Helton being untradeable, it would make sense for them to trade Atkins. They are also looking for pitching.

[August 26, 2008 12:46 PM]  |  link  |  reply
FelipeForever said

The guy I'd like to see us go after is Kevin Gregg of the Marlins. He blew a game against us the other night, but he's been solid for the Fish all year long. He's arb-eligible, and due roughly $4.5m for 2009. In all likelihood, the Marlins will see if they can shed this salary. If you had to give them someone like Bowker and a decent arm that's a couple of years away, I think I'd do it.
Anyone?