When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

08.18.2008
Throwing Darts at Opening Day 2009

DartNow that the draft picks have signed and the latest round of youngsters have reported for duty, it’s a good time to take another wild stab in the dark at the 2009 opening day roster. Today I’ll look at position players. The usual caveat of “barring injury” applies.

Behind the plate, I’m betting on Bengie Molina. If he’s traded this winter, it means more pressure on Pablo Sandoval or Buster Posey to hurry up and take the starting job. And unless the Giants trade for another grizzled vet, it also means Holm or Alfonzo would be a significant presence on next year’s team. I don’t think the Giants want either of those scenarios. Unless they’re blown away with a trade offer, Molina stays, with Sandoval as his backup unless he completely flops in his late-‘08 audition. Sandoval’s ability to play 1B also provides flexibility.

Around the infield, the only sure thing is three bases. Every infield has them. And dirt. Nice soft red well-groomed dirt. This we know about the Giants’ infield. Otherwise, we know more about the host site of the 2024 Summer Olympics — I vote for Havana after a long successful campaign led by El Presidente Elian Gonzalez. The official mascot is Chucho, a tightly rolled cigar with arms and legs, which makes Garry Trudeau either very happy or very sad.

Smoke up, kids. How about Ivan Ochoa, starting SS? And Travis Ishikawa, at least a platoon 1B? For a while I’ve been on the bring-Rich Aurilia-back bandwagon as utility guy and RH bat off the bench. And how about Eugenio Velez as another ute, though I have my doubts that he’ll ever be another Chone Figgins. Or another Jack Kennedy, for that matter. Kevin Frandsen gets every chance to win the starting 2B job, and 3B is filled via free agency or trade. I never thought I’d say it, but Adrian Beltre is looking better and better. (Travis Denker, you ask? Needs another year in AAA, I say. Emmanuel Burriss also goes back to AAA.)

In the outfield, Fred Lewis and Aaron Rowand are in left and center. Randy Winn and Dave Roberts make no sense on the same roster, so I see a trade. More likely the Giants try to pawn off Roberts and eat most of his ‘09 salary. I just don’t see the Giants handing Nate Schierholtz the starting RF job out of spring training, no matter how many home runs he hits off the Republic of Angola’s ace reliever. It’s not just his bat: I think the team is worried, and rightly so, about RF defense at Mays Field. The Giants’ fly-ball pitchers need premium D in the outfield, especially in RF. Misplays there turn outs into doubles, singles into triples. So unless they’re blown away by a trade offer, I think Winn stays, with Schierholtz broken in slowly. (The ideal right fielder for Mays Field is a guy with plus speed, a great arm, and a right-handed bat whose home runs don’t die on the right-center field warning track. Like this guy.)

For now, I’ll round out the OF with Schierholtz and John Bowker, but don’t be surprised if one is traded this winter. Brian Horwitz might make a good 5th OF and provide RH balance to the roster. So:

Molina
Sandoval
Ishikawa
Aurilia
Frandsen
Ochoa
Velez
outside 3B
Lewis
Rowand
Winn
Schierholtz
Bowker/Horwitz

Opening Day lineup:

Winn rf
Frandsen 2b
Lewis lf
Mysterio 3B
Molina c
Rowand cf
Ishikawa 1b
Ochoa ss

Remember, this is not necessarily my ideal nor is it my prediction of the roster next June or August. It’s also woefully short on power, again, unless the mystery 3B is Troy Glaus, 2001 Edition.

(Photo courtesy of infomatique via a Creative Commons license.)



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21 Comments

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Why Ochoa and not Burriss? What about Rohlinger? You assume a lot of progress from Frandsen. Hope he comes through - young, powerful 1st and 2nd basemen sound good to me. Another hopeful thought - more than one stud catcher, at least one of whom could play more than one position. I'm getting excited just thinking about it.

>>You assume a lot of progress from Frandsen. Hope he comes through - young, powerful 1st and 2nd basemen sound good to me...

He deserves a shot to win the 2b job. the achilles' heel blowout was a cruel twist of fate. He's hit at every level, though not for much power. I don't think he'll turn into a powerful 2nd baseman, but he might hit enough, even after a year off from the injury, to keep the job.

>Why Ochoa and not Burriss?

I like Ochoa's D at short a lot better so far. Plus he has a little bit of power. Burriss has none. And at the plate as a LHB, which is how he would spent most of his time, he is not good. I'm not saying Burriss won't be good (though I have doubts), I'm saying Ochoa is a better short-term solution, with Burriss getting much-needed seasoning in the minors to start '09.

>What about Rohlinger?

I'd love to see him do well and become next year's home-grown answer to the 3B problem. But see this post for an explanation why I'm not holding my breath.

Boy, that is still one real shitty offense, no matter who the mystery 3B man ends up being. Should be pushing the 100 loss mark again in 2009.

I don't see Velez being in the mix. He was an intriquing project, but bad defense and base running and OBP. And he's, what, 26? Should have figured the basics out by now. Move on. Burriss or Frandsen are better options, as Burriss has the speed and the defense (at 2nd) without the night-of-the-living dread that accompanies Velez everywhere he goes, and Frandsen seems to be able to hit.

But here's something else to mull over. How much need or value is there to having veterans on the team to help and teach the kids. I see lots of push, mostly by bloggers, to dump Winn and Aurilia. I'm okay with keeping or losing both. How many veterans does a team need to progress?

Nice post. Believe it or not, I know where DART runs. :^) I am a business geek!

Another alternative is trading Winn, using Roberts and Bowker and Horwitz as utility OF with Lewis in LF, Rowand CF, Schierholtz RF but Bowker get starts RF and LF (bunion could put Lewis out first half of 2009 and even if not, I would give him less games to baby that bunion more). When necessary, Lewis can take CF, Bowker can take RF, with Roberts also capable of CF in a pinch and can obviously play LF.

Also, I think the Giants might go with Frandsen at 3B, allowing a number of internal candidates to battle over 2B. At the end of the day (last day of spring training), you could go with one of them or even put Frandsen back at 2B and start Rohlinger at 3B if he has a good spring training, with Aurilia as backup starter at multiple infield positions (except for SS).

That's partly why I'm for Burriss starting 2B, as he could switch to SS in a pinch, Frandsen move to 2B then Aurilia takes 3B (or even 2B straight). Plus the Giants appear very serious about him, they have Lansford working with him to hit with more power from the left side, unfortunately he's using Willy Tavares as his model, a slap hitter, and will send him to winter league.

I agree with Ochoa, because SS is too defense dependent over history of baseball to go otherwise, particularly with our dependence on pitching to win. You just have to hope for offense from other positions.

Speaking of offense, I like Ishikawa/Sandoval as platoon buddies at 1B with Sandoval backup at C and Bowker as backup at 1B. Assuming they can do well in spring training.

I also don't think Velez will be Figgins-worthy, I'm just hoping that he will be good enough right now. I think he goes back down to AAA to figure things out and, more importantly, learn a position or three.

I think the Giants will look to pick up somebody discarded who can play 2B/3B, maybe SS, like how they got Castillo this season, to be another backup at those positions for 2009. Too bad Sandoval's experiment at 3B didn't work out, else maybe he could get a chance there too.

Sandoval and Ishikawa are unfortunatley not very good platoonmates due to Pablo's lefty/righty splits. While he is certainly a better hitter against LHP than Ishikawa is, he is still a much weaker hitter from the right side (.269/.309/.385 hitter right handed this year, as opposed to .391/.436/.674 left handed). Given the infrequency with which Bengie is rested, using Pablo as a platoon partner with TI seems to be setting him up for failure, by playing him predominantly at his weakest.

Lefty,

How could you? That link to an ideal outfielder has me...well, feeling blue. Yech.

Are you kidding? Who cares if he's a Dodger. I'd take Matt Kemp faster than you can say "Get me rewrite!"

I guess you could do this anywhere but in Seattle you can ride the SLUT - South Lake Union Streetcar

I'd prefer the SLUT ride me. Behave!

And by "Streetcar," I assume you mean "Trolley." But I'm happy to ride a SLUS as long as, you know, I arrive on time.

I'd rather have a scrap heap guy (e.g. Jorge Cantu or Dallas McPherson) via free agency than an actual third baseman next season if we're still rebuilding next season.
I would also like to see a somewhat strict platoon at first with Ishikawa (if his performance is suitable) and Aurilia (if he comes back relatively cheap). I'd also like David Wright, Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran and Fernando Martinez from the Mets for Barry Zito and Dave Roberts, but I'm trying to keep it realistic here.

Florida has to non tendor Cantu and/or McPherson. They are both just arbitration eligable and therefore not yet free agent eligable. They are both on the Marlins 40 Man Roster but they are both also out of options after this year.

Prediction: Giants will sign either Crede or Furcal. Crede seems more like "our" type of guy, but he would block Gillespie

Trollope?

Slattern?

I`m pretty much with you on every point here. I would throw Burriss in the 2B mix, in case Frandsen or Speedy are horrible in spring training.

I`d take Beltre in a heartbeat if the price is low enough. I suspect the giants will make a run at Crede, though.

I share the same concerns with Nate`s RF, and if they can trade Roberts I`d be thrilled.

my dream scenario here: Pablito is decent at 3B, so they stick him there, but I don`t think this will happen.

>>I suspect the giants will make a run at Crede

I just realized Crede has been out for a month with a bad back. It's looking more and more like a chronic ailment, which means the Giants will be very very wary. Or should be.

Yep, they should be. But his injury history might drive his price down considerably, and it might reach a point that it may make sense to sign him. We'll see.

As for Pablito: the 3B experiment will be very interesting to watch, and I'm glad that the giants are at least giving it a shot.

oh, and there is yet hope for Kemp: Agent Ned hasn`t been axed yet, and might have kept himself around until next year with the Manny deal.

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