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09.04.2008
Fasten Your Beltre, It's Going to Be a Bumpy Winter
ESPN’s Jayson Stark tells us the Giants have scouted the crap out of Adrian Beltre this summer. (Link tip to MLB Trade Rumors.) He also says the Mariners will insist on a quality starting pitcher in return, even though Beltre will be a free agent after 2009 and the M’s would be shedding $12 M from payroll.
Greedy bastards. Who do they think Beltre is, Randy Winn? It’s not like Beltre is a switch-hitting gamer who plays all three outfield positions, loves him some Steve Nash and mischievously snaps towels against bare bottoms in the locker room. That kind of guy is worth keeping.
With the unlikely emergence of Pablo Sandoval as a solution at third base next year, it’s possible the Giants’ thoughts about Beltre have cooled. But let’s say the Giants are set on Beltrifying their ‘09 lineup. Obviously Cain and Lincecum are out of the question as trade bait, but what about Jonathan Sanchez? Given his contract status — four more years under the Giants’ control — a straight-up swap is unlikely, too.
Is there a scenario in which a trade of Sanchez for Beltre makes sense? If the M’s are persuaded that Sanchez is in fact the more valuable player, the next step is to find other players in the Seattle system to even things out. (This guy? Nope.) I don’t have a good grasp of their prospects, but a young reliever with a great arm would be a good start. A third baseman with power would also help, because Adrian Beltre won’t likely be a Giant in 2010 and there still isn’t anyone in line to replace him. Conor Gillaspie, you say? Let’s wait for him to have an OPS higher than .700 in the low minors before we anoint him with supple oils.
Even if the Giants consider trading a starting pitcher, I wager they’ll want to see first how Noah Lowry throws in the fall. He’s slated to pitch in the Arizona instructional league; good results and no health setbacks could convince the front office it can spare a starter. And no, Madison Bumgarner, despite his steady rise toward immortality, is not an option for the big-league rotation next year …. though I swore Pablo Sandoval wouldn’t sniff a major-league uniform til next spring, at the earliest, so really, there’s no point in listening to me at all.
Comments
Straight up, one for one? Or do you think the Giants should ask for more?
Make it at least two throw-ins.
>> Frankly, I wouldn't even give up Correia for him.
Is this hyperbole, or are you being serious?
Also, I think anyone even mentioning the name Pedro Feliz in the same sentence with Beltre is missing the point.
Yeah, I can see the comparison on defense alone, but Beltre has been a league average hitter or slightly for the past 3 years. Feliz has never been close to league average once and has tended to be around 20% under average. That's a pretty big difference.
>> Feliz has never been close to league average once and has tended to be around 20% under average.
Should read:
Feliz has never been close to league average except once and has tended to be around 20% under average.
I'm not saying Beltre is the answer and I most likely wouldn't trade for him, but I think he's underrated.
Huff is pretty bad at third base. He hasn't played there regularly since 2006 and that year he was a -9 defender by Dewan's +/- System.
I'm also leery of his season this year, in a one-last-hurrah sort of way. I'm not confident that he'll carry his '08 numbers over into '09.
This is true. No argument. Huff isn't a great option. Which is kind of my point about Beltre. I'd rather have just about anyone playing 3rd for the Giants rather then Beltre. Being a Giants fan that has lived in almost all of our NL west competitions markets I get a very different view of our team than most of us. I lived in L.A. for 8 years and I remember seeing Beltre as a Dodger, he'll always be a Dodger to me. That's reason 1 I don't want him. But that's the least of his issues. Players with the Dodgers hated Beltre, the LA papers had a few articles right after he was let go about how the club house feeling was that of relief that he was gone. There's reason 2. Reason 3 is obvious: Do we really need another defensive 3B that can't hit? Beltre has one good hitting season under his belt and it was a fluke due to a lingering pain in his legs. He couldn't over swing because it hurt too bad to do so. the result was a better swing that netted more hits. is that really a player we want? The guy is having a decent year this year, but he wont do it again next year. Have we forgotten our overpriced free agent fiascoes already? What we need is a solid producer, someone that has produced well for years. Not some flash in the pan, sometimes hits well player. Either play the kids from the farm or get someone that has a track record of several good years under their belt. NOT Beltre.
Oh and one last thing: Beltre sucks.
>> Oh and one last thing: Beltre sucks.
No, not really. He's pretty good.
As you know, the FA market for 3rd baseman is going to be pretty weak this offseason. I'd like to hope that they could squeeze out more than Sanchez from the Giants or another team. If Sanchez is the best they can get, then so be it, although I'm not convinced that he'd be better than a first round pick and an additional supplimental first round pick.
No hitter is worth more then a young and talented pitcher in this market. Especially not Beltre.
A-Rod? Sure, he'd be worth more. Texierra? Sure. But Beltre? I'll give you a bag of sunflower seeds, $100 and a "you're welcome" for him. Overpriced with too many strikeouts. If he was a 30+ HR guy I could see it but he's not.
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Sanchez has funky mechanics - this could be a career year for him. I would pull the trigger and try to lock up Beltre in the off season for 3 years. Moves Molina out of the #4 spot.