When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

09.04.2008
Fasten Your Beltre, It's Going to Be a Bumpy Winter

ESPN’s Jayson Stark tells us the Giants have scouted the crap out of Adrian Beltre this summer. (Link tip to MLB Trade Rumors.) He also says the Mariners will insist on a quality starting pitcher in return, even though Beltre will be a free agent after 2009 and the M’s would be shedding $12 M from payroll.

Greedy bastards. Who do they think Beltre is, Randy Winn? It’s not like Beltre is a switch-hitting gamer who plays all three outfield positions, loves him some Steve Nash and mischievously snaps towels against bare bottoms in the locker room. That kind of guy is worth keeping.

With the unlikely emergence of Pablo Sandoval as a solution at third base next year, it’s possible the Giants’ thoughts about Beltre have cooled. But let’s say the Giants are set on Beltrifying their ‘09 lineup. Obviously Cain and Lincecum are out of the question as trade bait, but what about Jonathan Sanchez? Given his contract status — four more years under the Giants’ control — a straight-up swap is unlikely, too.

Is there a scenario in which a trade of Sanchez for Beltre makes sense? If the M’s are persuaded that Sanchez is in fact the more valuable player, the next step is to find other players in the Seattle system to even things out. (This guy? Nope.) I don’t have a good grasp of their prospects, but a young reliever with a great arm would be a good start. A third baseman with power would also help, because Adrian Beltre won’t likely be a Giant in 2010 and there still isn’t anyone in line to replace him. Conor Gillaspie, you say? Let’s wait for him to have an OPS higher than .700 in the low minors before we anoint him with supple oils.

Even if the Giants consider trading a starting pitcher, I wager they’ll want to see first how Noah Lowry throws in the fall. He’s slated to pitch in the Arizona instructional league; good results and no health setbacks could convince the front office it can spare a starter. And no, Madison Bumgarner, despite his steady rise toward immortality, is not an option for the big-league rotation next year …. though I swore Pablo Sandoval wouldn’t sniff a major-league uniform til next spring, at the earliest, so really, there’s no point in listening to me at all.



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[September 4, 2008 5:41 PM]  |  link  |  reply
50andstillfly said

Sanchez has funky mechanics - this could be a career year for him. I would pull the trigger and try to lock up Beltre in the off season for 3 years. Moves Molina out of the #4 spot.

[September 4, 2008 5:52 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM replied to 50andstillfly

Straight up, one for one? Or do you think the Giants should ask for more?

[September 4, 2008 6:58 PM]  |  link  |  reply
trilljester said

Beltre + Ryan Feierabend? Too much? Throw a scrub in from our side?

[September 4, 2008 9:05 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Anonymous said

Tell us about Feierabend.

[September 4, 2008 10:27 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Frank said

well, aren't I a fool? I've been listening to you for over 2 years and (mistakenly) thought you were worth listening to. Thanks you for setting me straight
I like Beltre but I do not think we need him for one and only one year. Giving away Sanchez for 1 year of Beltre would be a terrible waste of a valuable trading chip. I don't think Sanchez should be moved until next July when his value is likely to be much higher.
And that is if we do trade Sanchez. I think our O is creeping dangerously close to respectability and I am not averse to a Sandoval/Aurilia platoon at 3b and an Ishi/Sandoval/Aurilia platoon at 1b. I think Burriss/Frandsen/Velez will play the MI.
Sanchez seems to promise long term high value. I would think it a mistake to trade that for short term high value - that is how you deplete your system. I am more in favor of protecting/stocking the system than I am in getting a big name for 1 or 2 years.

[September 5, 2008 1:37 AM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive said

I don't consider Beltre to be a big name, he only has a big salary. Never understood the hype, and he had that one great year (which smells suspicious because it was his contract year). He's basically a step above Pedro Feliz offensively with great defense.

So that's probably why he isn't a Giant yet, the Mariners actually still think he's worth something when other teams view the Mariners as owing them something more because they are getting salary relief.

Frankly, I wouldn't even give up Correia for him.

But since the scenario is Sanchez for Beltre, I would probably want Carlos Truinfel. Sanchez has a lot of years of control, whereas Beltre doesn't plus costs $12M, so I would want a top prospect like Truinfel, who could be SS, maybe 2B or 3B if he grows out of the SS position.

They would probably rather keep Truinfel and give us Matt Tuiasosopo, but there's no way I would want to give up Sanchez for Tuiasosopo.

If you take out Beltre's "peak" career year, his overall OPS is basically the same as the league average plus maybe 4-5 points (755 OPS league average; he's around 760 OPS). Add that he'll be 30 and probably expects a raise over the $12M he's making now, tells me that he's not worth risking losing Sanchez without getting a top prospect like Truinfel, as his agent is Boras and he'll probably want $15M for 3-4 years. NO WAY!

I would rather trade with the Indians and try to get Wes Hodges plus a throw-in or two, like Andy Marte or Josh Barfield or Adam Miller.

[September 5, 2008 1:38 AM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive replied to obsessivegiantscompulsive

Make it at least two throw-ins.

[September 5, 2008 8:14 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Chris replied to obsessivegiantscompulsive

>> Frankly, I wouldn't even give up Correia for him.

Is this hyperbole, or are you being serious?

[September 5, 2008 11:35 AM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

OGC is right to say that Beltre is not a huge upgrade over Feliz. I should be clear that I don't advocate trading Sanchez for him, certainly not one for one.

But if the Giants could get back a legitimate prospect --- good luck getting Triunfel, pal -- in addition to Beltre, the risk could be worth it. There's also the possibility that Beltre flips the contract-year switch like he did in '03 and puts up monster numbers.

At the end of '09, when he walks, the Giants will probably get two comp picks for him, too. (He'd have to really tank next year not to be an 'A' free agent.)

So the Giants would lose Sanchez and all his potential upside, plus $11.5 M, the rough difference between the two players' salaries, in exchange for one year of excellent D and perhaps well above average O from the 3B position; a legitimate prospect; and two high draft picks.

I'm not sure it's worth it. It all hinges on the quality of the other player(s) Seattle throws in.

[September 5, 2008 11:53 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Chris said

I'll throw my 2cents into the ring.

I actually think Beltre is underrated because of his 2004 season that he's never approached again. Most just look at his offensive numbers and turn off to the idea of him because he hasn't been close to repeating his '04 season.

He plays very good defense and he's hitting in a tough park in Safeco.

Chris Dial of BBTF released his OPD (Offense Plus Defense) numbers today and Beltre ranks as the 2nd best 3B in the AL behind A-Rod. OPD essentially judges a player on more complete scale by also adjusting for defense, something that most people either ignore or they don't weight properly.

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/dialed_in/discussion/al_mvp_race_offense_plus_defense_opd_through_sept_02_2008/

He'd be a fine addition to the Giants. I'm not sure who I would try to trade for him, I like Sanchez, so I'm not sure there is a match. But, I do think he's a fine player that's been underrated.

[September 5, 2008 11:55 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Chris replied to Chris

Also, I think anyone even mentioning the name Pedro Feliz in the same sentence with Beltre is missing the point.

[September 5, 2008 12:09 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Evan replied to Chris

Well, they are awfully similar players -- rh power hitters with good gloves and absolutely no pitch recognition skills. But Beltre's a lot better.

There was a great Dave Cameron piece a couple of years ago comparing Beltre and Aramis Ramirez: http://ussmariner.com/2006/11/12/free-agent-review-aramis-ramirez/

[September 5, 2008 1:31 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Chris replied to Evan

Yeah, I can see the comparison on defense alone, but Beltre has been a league average hitter or slightly for the past 3 years. Feliz has never been close to league average once and has tended to be around 20% under average. That's a pretty big difference.

[September 5, 2008 1:33 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Chris replied to Chris

>> Feliz has never been close to league average once and has tended to be around 20% under average.

Should read:

Feliz has never been close to league average except once and has tended to be around 20% under average.

I'm not saying Beltre is the answer and I most likely wouldn't trade for him, but I think he's underrated.

[September 5, 2008 12:02 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Evan said

I'd rather keep Sanchez and try to land Beltre with a package of arms -- Correia/Sosa/Snyder, say. But I don't think the Mariners particularly want to trade him. They know he's good, they know his history in contract years, and they know the draft picks they'll get if he walks at the end of the year are valuable.

[September 5, 2008 1:23 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Jordan said

Beltre? Really?

I know I've heard this rumor around, and I know Beltre is having a good year. But him? As a Giant? It's enough to make you start watching the A's. If he was extremely cheap, like say for a AA scrub that may or may not make the majors I'd take him. But other then that forget it. I wouldn't give up anyone with major league experience for him. There are better trade options out there at 3rd. Heck, even Aubry Huff is a better option, at least he has shown he still has 30+ HR power.

Note to Sabean: Forget Beltre . . . no matter the cost. Look elsewhere for 3B help.

Now the move I'd like to see them try is go after Texiera and failing that try to get Pat Burrell to play first. Then make Bowker and Ishikawa his backups and give him regular rest ala Barry Bonds last season. Then let the kids battle it out for who gets to start at 3rd, SS and 2nd between Frandsen, Velez, Burriss, McClain and Ochoa. Surely one of those middle infielders can play a decent 3B, and if not McClain is pretty good for a 36 year old rookie and Ochoa has done pretty well.

[September 5, 2008 1:39 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Chris replied to Jordan

Huff is pretty bad at third base. He hasn't played there regularly since 2006 and that year he was a -9 defender by Dewan's +/- System.

I'm also leery of his season this year, in a one-last-hurrah sort of way. I'm not confident that he'll carry his '08 numbers over into '09.

[September 5, 2008 4:56 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Jordan replied to Chris

This is true. No argument. Huff isn't a great option. Which is kind of my point about Beltre. I'd rather have just about anyone playing 3rd for the Giants rather then Beltre. Being a Giants fan that has lived in almost all of our NL west competitions markets I get a very different view of our team than most of us. I lived in L.A. for 8 years and I remember seeing Beltre as a Dodger, he'll always be a Dodger to me. That's reason 1 I don't want him. But that's the least of his issues. Players with the Dodgers hated Beltre, the LA papers had a few articles right after he was let go about how the club house feeling was that of relief that he was gone. There's reason 2. Reason 3 is obvious: Do we really need another defensive 3B that can't hit? Beltre has one good hitting season under his belt and it was a fluke due to a lingering pain in his legs. He couldn't over swing because it hurt too bad to do so. the result was a better swing that netted more hits. is that really a player we want? The guy is having a decent year this year, but he wont do it again next year. Have we forgotten our overpriced free agent fiascoes already? What we need is a solid producer, someone that has produced well for years. Not some flash in the pan, sometimes hits well player. Either play the kids from the farm or get someone that has a track record of several good years under their belt. NOT Beltre.

Oh and one last thing: Beltre sucks.

[September 6, 2008 3:27 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Chris replied to Jordan

>> Oh and one last thing: Beltre sucks.

No, not really. He's pretty good.

[September 5, 2008 1:33 PM]  |  link  |  reply
bleedingblueandteal.com said

Beltre is one of the most underrated players in all of baseball. Safeco Field has destroyed his overall output, like it has for many right handed power bats, but if his home splits looked like his road splits, he'd be hitting around .300 with 30 homers and over 100 RBI right now.

Even with the nasty home splits, he is only bettered by third basemen ALex Rodriguez, Evan Longoria, Chipper Jones and David Wright this season when you add the runs created offensively and the runs saved defensively.

Also, his BABIP this season suggests (and if you watched him play everyday you'd agree) that he is having horrible luck this season. He has been smashing the ball all season, only to hit it right at someone.

I doubt Seattle would trade Beltre for Sanchez, which isn't a legit rumor, only speculation by MLBTR. Seattle will hold onto Beltre and take the comp picks rather than trade him for less than he is worth.

Also, whoever said they'd want Carlos Triunfel thrown in for Sanchez is crazy. Triunfel is far and away Seattle's number 1 propsect, and Seattle wouldn't give him up for Johan Santana or Erik Bedard. Seattle is now rebuilding, so they wouldn't give ANY prospects for Sanchez, let alone a top-20 prospect.

[September 5, 2008 2:10 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Evan said

Really? You wouldn't trade Beltre for a young, cheap, left-handed starter with one of the best strikeout rates in the game?

What's the point of keeping him?

[September 5, 2008 2:19 PM]  |  link  |  reply
bleedingblueandteal.com replied to Evan

As you know, the FA market for 3rd baseman is going to be pretty weak this offseason. I'd like to hope that they could squeeze out more than Sanchez from the Giants or another team. If Sanchez is the best they can get, then so be it, although I'm not convinced that he'd be better than a first round pick and an additional supplimental first round pick.

[September 5, 2008 5:19 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Jordan replied to bleedingblueandteal.com

No hitter is worth more then a young and talented pitcher in this market. Especially not Beltre.

A-Rod? Sure, he'd be worth more. Texierra? Sure. But Beltre? I'll give you a bag of sunflower seeds, $100 and a "you're welcome" for him. Overpriced with too many strikeouts. If he was a 30+ HR guy I could see it but he's not.

[September 5, 2008 11:00 PM]  |  link  |  reply
bleedingblueandteal.com said

Maybe I'm underrating Jonathan Sanchez. Is he legit?

[September 7, 2008 11:03 AM]  |  link  |  reply
WBB said

Beltre is a 25-30 HR guy with a smooth Gold Glove. Sanchez has potential, but is far from achieving it and could be a big bust. Lowry, on the other hand, is dead meat.