When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

09.02.2008
Laborious

Back from the boonies, and I'm scanning the box scores and game recaps. Ugh. It looks like everyone deserves some blame for the four-game losing streak: the starters and relievers in Cincy, the hitters in today's weakfest at Coors Field.

With one month to go, the big story for the Giants is the pitching. Sanchez is coming off shoulder problems and, despite his good showing today in a losing cause -- three earned runs, only three hits and six K's in seven mile-high innings -- there is no reason to push him hard down the stretch. The same applies to Cain and Lincecum. Perhaps the remaining off-days, this Thursday and Monday the 22nd, are enough to ease up on the young guys, but I have a better idea. The bullpen has been dreadful in recent weeks, so with the extra arms arriving -- Brad Hennessey today, perhaps Misch, Espineli, even a little more Matt Palmer in the next couple days -- why not cap Lincecum and Cain at 5 or 6 innings and turn September into an early competition for bullpen spots next year? It could get ugly: nearly everyone except Sergio Romo produced mediocre or worse numbers in August.

But the rotation isn't a question mark for next year; the bullpen is. The more the team can evaluate next year's candidates in real-world situations, the better. If that means sacrificing a couple wins for Lincecum or Cain down the stretch, so be it. If I were Bochy et al, I'd give the relievers a motivational speech: you'll get your chance to pitch down the stretch and impress us. Don't blow it.

A few other numbers to note in the final few weeks:

* Emmanuel Burriss's .363 OBP for the season. Maybe the power will arrive, maybe it won't. But Burriss, whom I've said all summer should spend '09 in the minors to refine his game, keeps getting on base. His August OBP was .402. Some of his recent surge came in Cincinnati, with six hits and three walks for the weekend. Let's see how it plays out beyond the friendly confines of the Great American Ball Park. Meanwhile, my early favorite for starting SS in '09, Ivan Ochoa, slumped in August.

* Pablo Sandoval, one walk in 60 at-bats. Yes, he's a hitting machine, and his ability to smack line drives the opposite way bodes well. But an unwillingness to take walks gives opposing pitchers a chance to study the video archives and put together a plan to get Sandoval out in 2009. Watch his remaining at-bats very carefully.

* Dave Roberts's .383 OBP / .450 SLG in August. Not counting his first few games back from the DL in July, Roberts has proven valuable as a bench player. I still think the Giants will trade either Roberts or Winn this winter, but trading both will be a tough task. If Winn is the easier one to trade, at least there's some sign that Roberts can still contribute in a limited role.

***
SMALL PRINT UPDATE: Hennessey, Scott McClain and Steve Holm are up. To make room for McClain, Guillermo Rodriguez was released.


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14 Comments

| Leave a comment
giantsrainman | September 2, 2008 2:15 AM | Reply

Lincecum is competing for a Cy Young. To hold him back is risk pissing him off. I know I would be pissed of if I had a shot at a Cy Young and my team held me back. This is a very bad idea.

Chris | September 2, 2008 8:33 AM | Reply

He's competing, but he has zero chance to get it (most likely) because C.C. Sabathia and Brandon Webb are both pitching for wining teams and have more wins.

What's an even more "very bad idea" is to mishandle Lincecum.

Boof replied to comment from Chris | September 2, 2008 11:20 AM | Reply

What he said.

obsessivegiantscompulsive | September 2, 2008 12:54 PM | Reply

Just because teams drink a lot of wine, it doesn't mean they deserve the Cy Young. :^)

I think Webb is blowing his status, but CC is now the lead horse I think. Lincecum only has a chance if he can get to 20 wins and continue what he has been doing performance-wise, else I totally agree that someone else with a winning team would win it. Lincecum needs to do something catchy to get voter's attention, 20 wins should do it.

About Burriss, to be fair, he's been hitting really well pretty soon after that article about him working with Lansford to get him to 1) hit better left-handed and 2) hit for more power. The Reds series was just the whip cream on top. I would like to see his stats as a lefty since his hot streak started, to see if that is where the difference is.

About Sandoval, is it unwillingness to take a walk or just seeing pitches to hit? The key sign that he's OK is that he has only 8 strikeouts in 60 AB or a 13% strkeout rate (or 87% contact rate). The better hitters keep their contact rate above 85%, though ideally, yes, even better would be to take walks. He has been up and down in the minors in terms of taking walks, but he normally walks a bit more than what he has been doing, suggesting that he's just seeing a lot of good pitches to hit. When those dry up, then we'll get a better sense of his hitting abilities.

That's about Dave Robert's performance when he is healthy. He is not that bad a hitter, better with a platoon buddy, great base-stealer, good influence on the other players. I'll be happy with him as 4th OF and part-time coach with our young speedsters, then, should Lewis, Bowker, and/or Schierholtz flames out starting in 2009, Roberts could step in and do well for us, else he could give Rowand some more time off when he's playing injured and just in need of a day off. Plus, he is understanding of his bench role, you don't find that normally with any player, especially one paid that much. I'm still hoping he would segue into a coaching role after the 2009 season.

giantsrainman | September 2, 2008 4:17 PM | Reply

Winning team is irrelavent and always has been to the Cy Young. This only matters for the MVP.

However, my point is not that he is going to win but rather that he wants (and should want to compete) and the Giants intentionally ending his effort to compete by curtailing his use is a very bad idea as it will only suceed in pissing him off.

Boof replied to comment from giantsrainman | September 2, 2008 6:31 PM | Reply

How can you state this as a fact? Has Lincecum ever said as much himself? Do you have some kind of mind meld going on with him that you know how he is going to react?

If anything, he should be grateful that the Giants would be taking steps to insure that Lincecum is still healthy for the future when he can cash in for the big contract.

ELM replied to comment from giantsrainman | September 2, 2008 6:49 PM | Reply

I agree with Boof. You're assuming a lot, probably based on Lincecum's agent's statement about him wanting to go year by year through arbitration instead of signing a long term contract.

The Giants control him for six years. If he's pissed off that he wasn't pushed to the max in the 2008 Cy Young race, and that is the difference in losing him in free agency in 2013 or whatever, that's a chance worth taking.

Also: For many CY voters, wins matter. Brandon Webb's shiny 20 wins will influence many of them.

giantsrainman replied to comment from ELM | September 2, 2008 7:25 PM | Reply

Actually it is you all that are making an assumption that has no basis in realty. Timmy is a competitor with a shot and it is rediculous to assume that Timmy as a competitor would be fine with his shot being taken away from him.

giantsrainman replied to comment from ELM | September 2, 2008 7:28 PM | Reply

Wins do indeed matter to the voters. But the diffence in wins could be down to 3 after today which just ain't much of a difference.

giantsrainman replied to comment from giantsrainman | September 2, 2008 7:34 PM | Reply

By the way, Webb also has three more loses which also matter to the voters.

giantsrainman | September 2, 2008 7:31 PM | Reply

Are you really saying that control is what matters most ahd who cares if he is pissed off? I am sure glad you ain't my boss. This would be a horrible way to run any business.

Boof replied to comment from giantsrainman | September 3, 2008 12:08 PM | Reply

MEMO TO CLUELESS: A shot at the Cy Young is meaningless if.........YOU CAN'T FREAKING PITCH BECAUSE YOUR ARM HAS BEEN ABUSED. Just go ask some of the A's pitchers that pitched under Billy Martin.

Tim is too valuable an asset to risk on an otherwise meaningless individual award.

Santa Fe | September 2, 2008 8:11 PM | Reply

A prediction: No way that Timmy pitches less than 100 pitches tonight. That might be the rational choice but it's not in Bochy's psychology as a manager.

ELM replied to comment from Santa Fe | September 3, 2008 2:46 PM | Reply

Final pitch count: 92. But I think it was just as much dictated by in-game strategy. (Top of 6th, big rally, needed a pinch hitter.)

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