Henry Schulman of the Chron reports in today’s rag that under new Giants managing partner Bill Neukom & Co., Brian Sabean’s job is safe for another year. According to this site, his current contract runs through ‘09, and the team has an option for 2010.

I wrote this in the comments yesterday morning:

As for my own beliefs — can the Giants make the playoffs next year? — I shrug and smile obliquely. I certainly hope they do, but not as part of a short-term, short-sighted plan. Given the tenor of the front office this year, and given the ascendancy of Bill Neukom, who spent his career plotting long-term legal strategy for one of the most patient, relentless companies in the world, I don't think near-sightedness is a big danger.

Firing Sabean this winter would make a splash; splashiness does not seem part of Neukom’s schtick. Besides — and hang onto your socks, Lunatic Fringers — Sabean’s plan, helped mightily when Magowan & Co. finally agreed to ditch Bonds and rebuild, has more or less worked. Let’s review:

1) Draft high, draft often, draft well: Sure, Sabean has the advantage of running a crappy team and receiving high picks, but plenty of teams draft high and fail. The scouting team Sabean and Dick Tidrow have built the past two years has hit the jackpot. (Speaking of new scouts, I missed this the first time around: In February the Giants hired Ned Colletti’s son as a scout in the Midwest. Weird.) 

2) Head ‘em up, move ‘em out: With a new generation moving up, the Giants are clearing the path. 23–year-olds in A ball are like college graduates still living with their parents. Time to contribute or hit the road. Ryan Rohlinger, Travis Ishikawa, get your feet off the couch and rake the backyard. Not all the promoted players this year were over age, of course, and the mad rush might hurt some youngsters, but it hasn’t yet hindered Emmanuel Burriss (sidelined with injury) and Pablo Sandoval.

Age-appropriate or not, the overall philosophy has been to put guys feet in the fire and see how they hold up. It’s not just for internal intelligence; you can bet the Giants want the rest of baseball to see guys like Bowker, Rohlinger, Denker, Ochoa, etc., in a major-league context. The more recognizable names the Giants can float in trade talks this winter, the better.

3) Don’t do anything stupid: Impossible. All GM’s do stupid things, or things that turn out stupid. The real test is how many, and whether a GM compounds them. The Giants’ neglect of the farm system was stupid; Brian Sabean is addressing the problem. Paying expensive mediocre veterans to fill the gaps around Barry Bonds was stupid; at least Sabean seems more cautious in the free agent market, the Rowand deal notwithstanding (more on that in a second).

Trading Joe Nathan and Francisco Liriano for AJ Pierzynski was, in hindsight, stupid, but at the time not entirely unreasonable. No other trade of young talent has royally backfired since, except Jeremy Accardo for Hillenbrand and Chulk. Kurt Ainsworth, Jerome Williams, Jesse Foppert, David Aardsma, Yorvit Torrealba, Carlos Villanueva, Shairon Martis: does anyone miss these guys?

Then again, Sabes nearly traded Tim Lincecum for Alexis Rios this winter (how nearly, we’re not sure, but it sure seemed close). After receiving the talk-radio equivalent of a horse’s head under his pillow, Sabean vowed not to trade his young pitchers. Let’s hope he’s not too badly intimidated. There are scenarios in which a trade of Cain or Sanchez makes sense. In fact, one could argue that Sanchez’s value will never be higher, but let’s save that discussion for another day. 

The bigger question — call it Stupidity Avoidance, Part Two — comes in the free agent market, where, ahem, mistakes have been made. Grant makes a strong argument here that if the Giants put Randy Winn in CF in 2006, they wouldn’t have the Roberts/Rowand contracts to deal with, more money to spend elsewhere, plus a better handle by now on Nate Schierholtz’s potential as a major leaguer. Roberts was an overspend, but even more ominous is Rowand’s dismal second half, highlighted by puzzlingly bad defense (one new nickname I’ve seen: Errant Throwin) and power that has disappeared faster than the Galveston beach party scene. I’ll bet it’s injury-related. The big question: Is it acute and fixable with a few months of rest and smarter usage next year, or is it chronic and the beginning of a 31–year-old’s athletic decline?

Bottom line: if Schulman is right Sabean has another year in which to wheel and deal, and unlike many Fringers, I don’t simply assume he’ll do the wrong thing. When the Bonds era ended last fall, we wondered if the team needed a clean sweep. One year later, Sabean apparently has earned himself more time to prove he can rebuild it.