When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

09.16.2008
Stock's Up

Too bad the Giants aren’t publicly traded, because I have a tip for you. Buy.

The national media hasn’t caught on yet, and the stock is a bargain. The farm system is productive, the young pitching is performing above expectations, and the long-term veteran contracts still on the books — OK, not all of them. I mean, some of them. Alright: Winn and Molina, fercrissakes — suddenly seem like assets. What was supposed to be a colossal fershlugginer mess this year now could be their best season since 2004.

Split the final twelve games and the Giants end 74–88. Win nine of twelve the rest of the way, and they finish 77–85. Teams that lose 90 to 100 games are rarely picked as sleepers. Teams that lose 85 to 90, more so. If the Giants finish strong and Tim Lincecum finishes with the Cy Young, don’t be surprised to see a few pundits put them on the watch list for next year.

Though it might take more: the national media still has a psychological barrier to overcome. The Giants can’t count on Peter Gammons waxing rhapsodic about them playing the fewest number of meaningless games. They get no slack in many quarters; from indignant keepers of the sacred baseball flame who wail about Barry Bonds; from know-it-all statheads who snicker about Brian Sabean’s unwavering idiocy (and its latest manifestation in Aaron Rowand’s second-half haplessness and Tim Lincecum’s inexcusable pitch counts); and from everyone because of the Zito contract. In other words, the team long ago spent all its political capital, and no amount of Dave Roberts, Spectacular 5th Outfielder will win it back.

And yet, and yet. This crazy, everyone-into-the-water-without-a-lifejacket approach to the post-Bonds rebuild seems to be working. Emmanuel Burriss stayed afloat to the tune of a .350 OBP. Their top two pitching prospects will likely jump to AA next spring, according to Baggs’ groove. I reckon if Sandoval, Ishikawa and Schierholtz all keep hitting at their current wonderful (read: unsustainable) levels, you’ll see the tippy-top of a bandwagon appear on the distant horizon. Throw in a clever hot-stove trade for a middle-of-the-order bat, and keep your eyes peeled for Cinderella references.

With every feel-good milestone this winter — Noah Lowry and Merkin Valdez throwing well in winter ball, Buster Posey and Roger Kieschnick (Kieschnick? I hardly know Nick!) tearing up the Hawaiian league, Tim Lincecum’s right arm staying attached to his body — the highly sensitive bandwagon-o-meter will register another tentative toe or perhaps the meaty left buttock of a new believer quietly claiming a spot under the canvas cover of our merry little procession.

Let me be the first to say: Welcome. Welcome to Fantasy Island. I don’t have a dwarf by my side (or was Mr. Roark a midget?), so Miss Monkeypants will show you to your cabin.  

Lila2

Giants 2009: Sleepers? Cinderella? Playoffs? Are your buttocks on the bandwagon yet? Discuss.



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[September 16, 2008 4:15 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Vish Suberamanian said

What is wrong with you? The only reason the season was bearable was that the expectations were low - lower than a freaking Mccain attack ad. Now you want to raise our hopes and kill next year?


[September 16, 2008 5:08 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Aaron B. said

I think next year will be about the same as this year...

[September 16, 2008 5:10 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Bunt&Burn said

I don't know but I'm pretty excited about that tube of toothpaste in the Giants clubhouse. It's about to do something special I can just feel it!

[September 16, 2008 5:44 PM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

Anyone care to bet that the Giants' pythagorean W-L record in 2009 is better than the Yankees'?

[September 16, 2008 7:28 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Brian replied to ELM

The beauty of playing in the worst division in baseball is that a few key upgrades can put you on top. I'm not sure I'd bet on their pythagorean being better than the Yanks, but I don't think playoffs in 2009 are out of the question if they spend a little bit of money in the offseason.

[September 16, 2008 7:18 PM]  |  link  |  reply
obsessivegiantscompulsive said

Welcome to the bandwagon, I've been keeping the seats warm for you all since last off-season.

However, the Giants could be headed for a fall in 2009: their W/L in one-run games is decidedly on their side, which means next year it should be more on the decidedly NOT on their side. And as noted, Sandoval, Ishikawa, and Schierholtz will not be hitting like this in 2009 (good reverse jinxing there, ELM! :^).

However, here are some positives:

- Since Robert's 0-6 in starts, the Giants are 68-76 (77 win season)

- Since the start of August, the team is 24-19 (90 win season), with basically the set of players who will be contributing next year, barring any trades.

- While Sandoval and Ishikawa are performing above what can be expected, their MLE's for the season puts them in the over .800 OPS range, which would be huge improvements at 1B and 3B, assuming they man those positions for 2009 and can continue hitting like they have this season. That would also give us 5 hitters around or above .800 OPS: Lewis, Rowand, Winn, Sandoval, Ishikawa. Plus Frandsen might join them too at 2B and Burriss plus Molina can reach .800 at times. That's the whole lineup.

- Since Sandoval joined the team, Molina has hit .319/.340/.511/.851 with 4 HR in 94 AB. I don't think that was a coincidence.

- Believe it or not, the "tiring" Tim Lincecum brought things up a notch in the second half, not only much better in second half (2.19 vs. 2.57 ERA) but each month's ERA are better in general (August has best ERA, Sept so far is third best month and his command is even better, 27K/7BB)

- With Bumgarner and Alderson slated apparently for AA in 2009, they could theoretically reach the majors by season's end.

- Posey with a good HWL showing and good 2009 could also reach the majors by season's end as well.

I wouldn't take that bet on the Yankee's. Hanky's going to be wanting to break the payroll bank in signing free agents this off-season to show to dear ole Papa-san that he has the balls to do it. With good free agents like CC Sabathia, Ben Sheets, and Teixiera available, they could actually improve this season, unlike wasteful signings like Igawa, Pavano and Damon.

[September 17, 2008 2:17 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Ben replied to obsessivegiantscompulsive

Could our better record in one run games be contributed to having a solid closer for the first time in 4 or so years?

[September 17, 2008 2:43 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Jefferson replied to Ben

Wilson's 4.40 ERA and 1.43 WHIP make me think that his save percentage is due for a bit of a fall next year.

[September 18, 2008 3:42 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Ben replied to Jefferson

I agree that his numbers have not been overwhelming and I have seen him complete several saves that he easily could have blown, but I think he will mature and improve next year to put up similar save numbers (hopefully more if we can win some more games) with a lower ERA and WHIP. Especially if he will learn to use the inside of the plate more with his fastball.

[September 16, 2008 8:10 PM]  |  link  |  reply
DRH said

I think the Giants take a step back next year then start to progress in 2010..

But that's if they stick with the plan to rebuild through the draft..They may decide to go gets some vets so they will win a few more games next year. This will be fool's gold but it's the Giants..They peddle fool's gold a lot..

[September 17, 2008 1:04 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Baggs said

Tattoo was the little guy. Mr. Roarke was Ricardo Montalban. And there is no such thing as "rich Corinthian leather."

[September 17, 2008 11:15 AM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM replied to Baggs

argh. I am so ashamed.

[September 17, 2008 9:33 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Stalky said

Waitaminnit! The worst? Don't you mean the most competitive, seeing as everyone competeing so hard that every club hovers around .500 ball until the last month and then..then..cripes, it's true, the worst. But a least it's our worst, right?

[September 17, 2008 10:11 AM]  |  link  |  reply
Chris said

Cute kid, Lefty! You must be a very proud papa.

I think 2009 will also be a transition year. I can't imagine the NL West being as bad in '09 as it was this year, but you never know.

[September 17, 2008 11:25 AM]  |  link  |  reply
ELM said

I should clarify: my post was not to convince you the Giants will make the playoffs, it was more to point out that the team is doing things that could make it a sleeper pick to contend next year. The true test of bandwagon-ism will be in the national media, which has written off the Giants the past few years for all the reasons I state above in the post.

As for my own beliefs -- can the Giants make the playoffs next year? -- I shrug and smile obliquely. I certainly hope they do, but not as part of a short-term, short-sighted plan. Given the tenor of the front office this year; and given the ascendancy of Bill Neukom, who spent his career plotting long-term legal strategy for one of the most patient, relentless companies in the world, I don't think near-sightedness is a big danger.

[September 18, 2008 12:31 PM]  |  link  |  reply
Jordan said

I actually completely agree with this entry. I think the Giants showed that the future is brighter then the present. Playing our "starters" we had a horrible record but since our "youth movement" things have looked up. Not to mention the Giants minor league teams have second best record in Major League Baseball since 2005.

If Lowry comes back from injury and can return to form and Zito even pitches the way he has the second half of this season (read as below average but better then in the first half) we have a great rotation. If we can sign a slugger to play either first or third (Can we even dream of Texierra?) this team could have a shot.

The Rockies will be worse, the Padres look to stay about the same, the Dodgers look to be about the same, which means we could catch up to them and Arizona.