For all the Hot Stove talk about trading Matt Cain, Randy Winn, Bengie Molina, and Jonathan Sanchez, the best trade possible for the Giants this winter (other than Barry Zito — not gonna happen) would include Aaron Rowand.
I don’t have much faith that the next four years of his contract will be better than the first. It wasn’t just the mediocre offense — we suspected this might happen in a move from Philadelphia Cream Cheese Park to Mays Field. It was the shoddy D, the erratic panicky throws. As he continues to crash into fences and roll around on bruised ribs and rub his gamerness all over the field, his skills aren’t likely to sharpen.
Short-term, Randy Winn would play center field. Longer-term, err, well, uh, how about a two-year extension for Randy Winn? Problem is, trading Rowand would open a CF hole for the Giants beyond 2009. I don’t think Fred Lewis is the answer, but youneverknow.
Let’s cut to it: Is Aaron Rowand tradeable, and if so, then what? Discuss.
Optimally, the Giants would listen to all inquiries next week on Rowand, and even add a player if necessary to move him. I've heard that teh Yankees' interest in swapping Matsui for Rowand was/is real, despite some of the initial dismissals from the faithful here on the coast.
If those talks continue next week, Sabean should push this to the top of the "To Do" list over any discussions yet about trading Winn or Molina. The reason to resolve Rowand's status ahead of Winn's is obvious, and a Lewis/Winn/Roberts lineup with Schierholtz and Bowker wouldn't be bad for a year until both Roberts and Winn are gone and some picks coming back the Giants' way.
How much of Captain Gomer's salary are you willing to eat to move him?
I see the WhiteSox or the Braves as two realistic trade targets. My preference would be the WhiteSox for Nick Swisher.
The signing of Rowand was clearly a mistake for the Giants. His skills do not match up well with AT&T. His defense was inadequate (to say the least), he strikes out way too much, and although he will rebound from his terrible second half, the bounce back will not be all that impressive. More of a rebound into mediocrity. He is massively overpaid and the Giants would do well to look elsewhere. People love to praise him for his veteran presence and leadership, but for me that is worth maybe $12 dollars a year, not $12,000,000. I think the "great leadership" card is something which is typically played by a management desperate to justify a big, fat, ugly, badly mistaken free agent contract to an over the hill veteran, and this seems to be the case in this instance. I would definitely rather see Winn on the squad next year rather than Rowand despite the age factor, but I seriously doubt anyone will take his salary off of the Giants hands, so the Giants will probably have to eat part of it. His skill set would offer a whole lot more to a team with a small yard or a team with some power bats behind him in the line-up to give him more pitches to hit. His numbers would be better next year with the Giants if they put Sandoval behind him in the line-up to protect him, although his low on base percentage might not even make that worth while. Actually, even if the Giants could move Rowand I wouldn't be opposed to them trading Winn also as long as some really good OF prospects were involved. I'll be blunt: I would much rather have Velez in the starting line-up next, although I say that with fear and trembling.
Rowand for a bag of Doritos, preferabbly Nacho Cheese.
Eff it, bring in Griffey! Ten years too late, but isn't that what the Giants do?
Rowand is today's Winn. Change all the complaints about Rowand, put Winn's name, that was two years ago.
I posted much of the below on another site that had a rumor that the Yankees want Rowand for maybe Matsui:
Compared to contracts out there, Rowand is very reasonable, OK if he is average, a bargain if he is out performing. The "problem" is that he's been average more often than outperforming during his career.
However, that's the (real) problem when people who are unfamiliar with a player's background. One reason one year was bad was because he smashed his face on the fence catching a ball. He was batting over 900 OPS when that happened, below average after that. So forgiving him that season (or better crediting him for the great hitting before his injury), he only has the one unexplained poor season and two very good seasons (plus the good start to his injury year) plus 2008, which also started well.
When a young player has an inconsistent year like 2008, you have to wonder whether he's just that inconsistent, but when you have a vet with a history of doing well when not injured, you have to wonder about his 2008 performance (as noted above) being marred by injury: he had roughly 950 OPS first two months of the year, then high 600 OPS rest of the season (think Durham's 2007).
A veteran don't usually do that over such an extended period of time, doing that poorly, without an injury to account for it. He did injure himself severely early in April, but soon was hitting well again, and there is no reported injury that accounts for the severe dropoff after May.
However, something similar happened to Randy Winn a couple of seasons ago, he injured his leg (fouled a ball of his shin if I recall correctly) and while he did return to starting, he didn't hit well at all the rest of 2006 and refused to blame that injury though most fans thought so and reporters asked him repeatedly if that was the case.
Most Giants fans that off-season were complaining about Winn's contract like they are doing now with Rowand's contract. Then he had an OK, Randy Winn-type season in 2007, and fans were in love with him again and he was a fan favorite in 2008 again.
A hitter can go on hot streaks and cold streaks, but Rowand's problem has appeared to be injuries that linger on when he should take it easy and heal properly first.
That's the problem with mechanical forecasting systems, it doesn't capture nuances like this for Winn and Rowand, or any player with an injury. Not that mechanical forecasts aren't great, but you have to know it's limitations.
Rowand has been a very good hitter for a significant amount of ABs. He's also been not so good as well, but much of it can be attributed to an injury he suffered earlier that season.
Still, I wouldn't go on the record as saying that he's going to be very good in 2009 since there was no official explanation for his drop in 2008 (unlike, say, Morris's drop when it was revealed that he broke a rib but pitched anyway - and poorly - the rest of the season).
I wouldn't go the other way either, as another factor that nobody here mentioned is how AT&T;depresses right-handed hitters stats, which, while not as bad as against lefties, can still significant. In 2008, he hit .256/.328/.386/.714 at home and a more robust .287/.350/.434/.784 on the road.
So his poor/average season was actually more average to good overall when considering his road numbers, which I think is a much better comparison point for any homepark where hitting is skewed either way, whether Giants, Dodgers, Padres for pitcher's parks, or Reds, Rockies, D-backs for hitter's parks.
And consider this: the average NL CF hit .267/.334/.426/.759 whereas Rowand, even with the AT&T downturn, still hit .271/.339/.410/.749 overall, right about average, clearly above average based on his road numbers.
2009 will be his put up or shut-up season. I think that there are a lot of indications that he can be a regularly good hitter - and not even accounting for playing in CF, mid-high 800 OPS would be good for most offensive positions - but there has been enough bad times to wonder if he'll just be a yo-yo the rest of his career, much like how Pete Reiser shortened his career, both length and magnitude, with his multiple injuries.
Rowand said before the season that he's learned it's not good to put himself in position to injure himself but then he went ahead and did it within a week or two of joining the Giants. Adrenaline and sheer will, I believe, allowed him to play unfettered by the injury but it eventually caught up with him in June. Or so it seems. Hopefully he has finally learned his lesson and hopefully he will be all healed for 2009.
In any case, the Giants had made a big point of signing him (the Gamer ad program which I enjoyed and, frankly, it was ultimately appropriate as there was no better gamer around than Lincecum) so I don't think he's going anywhere. Plus, he's our only true CF, Winn and Roberts are poor CF. And I think the Giants still believe they got the excellent hitting CF they thought they signed.
Randy Winn is the player who makes the most sense for the Yankees to trade for. He's a reasonable salary, only one year to his contract, produces well, plays 150+ games, can play all OF positions acceptably defensively on a short time basis, RF excellently as a starter, which is cleared by Abreu's free agency.
Plus, the last thing the Giants need is another OF like Cabrera or Matsui, Japanese or not, he's old (the Giants are reportedly looking in Japan more actively now anyhow, I would think they would go young and go relievers) and the Giants are now looking young and clearing their roster of the older players.
That vet strategy was the "Win with Bonds" strategy that didn't work; they are now looking younger and long-term now. The last thing we need is another old about average (and declining the past 4 seasons) OF or young below-average OF, particularly when AT&T kills left hitters.
Because we have plenty of OF options without trading for another. If we trade Winn, Schierholtz gets the chance to show his stuff in RF and I think he will do well, he's done well in short stints with us and well in AAA the past two seasons. He just needs the opportunity. In addition, the Giants have Dave Roberts as utility OF (LF-CF), plus probably John Bowker (LF-RF), perhaps Dan Ortmeier (all 3 OF) and Velez could play LF in a pinch (plus Sandoval, I would think, if necessary). Not great, but no reason to trade a good OF, whether Rowand or Winn, for an OF who, unlike either, is clearly declining in Matsui (OPS+ declining for years now) or a young OF who hasn't hit that well yet, and can't even hit for power in Yankee Stadium.
So unless they are giving up Cano or Jesus Montrero (and I wouldn't do that straight up if I were the Yankees), I don't see what the Yankees have that the Giants would be interested in. I would be interested in Wilson Betemit but not straight up, the Giants would need a prospect thrown in to even up the deal. But he's useful to them so I don't see them giving him up. I just don't see a match between the teams otherwise.
Lastly, the Giants have also expressed interest in Alex Rodriguez before, but I assume the Yankees are holding onto him. :^)
I think you're trying to hard to figure Rowand out. His pre-2008 numbers were up and down, and we all wondered whether the good Rowand or the bad Rowand would show up. As it turned out, his 2008 performance was almost exactly what you'd get if you just took his career averages and adjusted for a much more difficult home park to hit in.
The Matt Morris example seems apropos too. After his first season with the Giants, we learned about the broken rib, so of course that became the explanation for why he'd been so terrible. Unfortunately for that theory, he was exactly as terrible in 2007 as in 2006, and he didn't get any better in 2008 either.
Conclusion: Don't bother speculating about injuries, trying to devise explanations for poor years, etc. Instead, just focus on the big picture. You'll be right more often than not.
I agree with you here, Evan. Unless players come out and specifically say "I couldn't swing the bat because of [injury]" it's pretty useless to speculate why they didn't play well under a supposed injury.
Unless you're in the players head, you really don't know any of it. The Morris example is a good example.
>> As he continues to crash into fences and roll around on bruised ribs and rub his gamerness all over the field, his skills aren’t likely to sharpen.
Had me laughing, good show, Lefty!
I wouldn't mind showing Rowand the door but he does have a partial NT clause and I think he could be hard to move.
OSG, comparisons between Rowand and Winn fall apart simply on the basis of their defense. Winn has always been around a .300 hitter, hasn't he, whereas Rowand had a breakout season and got the contract for it, and now we see his defense doesn't warrant $12 million per. Winn is simply, and has been a better defensive player.
>>Rowand's problem has appeared to be injuries that linger on when he should take it easy and heal properly first.
This hits the nail on the head. A constantly banged-up 31-year-old CF'er who insists on playing through injury is not likely to enjoy a sustained period of health as he enters his mid-30s. Possible? Yes. Likely? No.
Watching him play at the start of the year when his ribs were hurting was tough. He obviously wasn't helping the team by staying on the field.
Well, being the gamer he is, he at least tried to play through it when it would have been better he healed first. Plus, like most prideful athletes, he wanted to justify his contract, which most commentators said he was overpriced and not worth it. I wish he didn't, but I understand that psychology so I give him points for that.
I think the risk-reward still exists today as strongly as it did when we signed him. A CF who can hit in the high 800 OPS and play good defense is very valuable. He could be a knuckle-head like Reiser and continue to knock his head into fences and the ground, but he appears to be someone who can learn from past mistakes and has a strong sense of responsibility.
He must know that fans were disappointed with his play in SF. I'm sure he was disappointed. He seems intelligent enough to realize that he would be better off being productive for the long term than diving for that one out, that one play, and hurting himself for the rest of the season.
Still, we don't know, he could be the type who can play only one way, like Reiser. But he at least has talked about realizing that he can't do things the same way, that he could modify his behavior for the good of his team, for the good of his family.
I think the reward is worth giving him another try with the team for 2009 and seeing if he can learn his lesson and produce for us.
If he can hit like that and Sandoval can continue to hit like he had plus Lewis produce the way he has, we have a pretty good heart of the lineup, even with Molina mis-cast as a cleanup hitter, costing us umpteen run opportunities because of his poor OBP. Plus, if, as hoped, Winn is traded, Schierholtz would also be able to contribute power in the middle as well, totally boosting our power between 2009 and 2008. And who knows if Ishikawa could contribute as well.
And I'm hoping one of them will take over batting 4th and push Molina back where he belongs, 6th, ideally 7th, maybe 8th.
The team only has a couple of "untouchables" and Rowand is not one of them. That said, it was his first year at AT&T and he was hurt, so he deserves another season before we give him the bum's rush.
I disagree with the comment that "gamerness" is only worth $12. This is a young team with many players who are learning how to play at this level. They will take their cues, good and bad, from the work habits of the veterans. I would be very happy to see the Sandovals, Burrises, and Bowkers emulate Rowand's attitude and work ethic. Plus it would be funny to watch the second baseman crashing into the center field fence.
>Plus it would be funny to watch the second baseman crashing into the center field fence.
But not so funny to watch the catcher consistently overthrow the cutoff man.
I wasn't saying that "being a gamer," having a great work ethic on-and-off the field, and playing all out doesn't matter -- it does. However, the bottom line is performance and all too often the poor performance of a veteran is said to be offset by their great leadership. Except in the case of pitching, and to a more limited degree catching, I don't think player to player mentoring is all that important. It is not long your typical 24 year old rookie is stepping on the diamond for the first time and is in desperate need of a veteran to tell them what's going on. The kid has either developed the necessary skills or hasn't and will suceed or fail accordingly.
Giant Priorities for Next Week's GM Meeting:
1. Move Rowand for long-term salary relief and to allow FA moves down the road;
2. With Blalock being dangled today and the Giants reportedly interested, find out how much the Rangers want starting pitching by asking instead about Chris Davis;
3. Move Molina to the Mets for Jon Niese and a AA prospect; and then
4. Move Niese to the Rangers for Blalock to address 1B next year, or even Sanchez/Niese to the Rangers for Chris Davis to handle a corner for the next 2-4 years.
Well, double No to Blalock, he's a product of his park:
road: .244/.299/.402/.702 with 50 HR in 1546 AB (31 AB/HR)
home: .306/.375/.531/.905 with 75 HR in 1496 AB (20 AB/HR)
Even Pedro Feliz outhits Blalock on the road. Most overrated player I've seen discussed on Giants fan's trade wish list for years now. If they are willing to take Matt Palmer for him, sure, but I wouldn't even give up Pat Misch for him (who I really like but most fans are "meh" about).
Too bad the Giants sent away Correia and Hennessey already; they might have gotten Blalock for the two of them.
I see no positives with Rowand. He was not who we needed when we signed him and if we can get rid of him I'm all for it.