When the Giants Come to Town, It's Bye-Bye Baby

11.17.2008
Affeldt the Giant

Is Jeremy Affeldt ready for a breakout year? He had by far his best performance as a big-leaguer in Cincinnati in 2008 but still was no great shakes. He posted a WXRL of 0.19, this after a wretched ‘07 number of negative 0.65.

Fortunately there are a couple rays of hope in his ‘08 stats:

1) 80 Ks and only 25 BBs in 78.1 IP. Those are the lowest BB/9 and highest K/9 rates of his career, in an extreme hitter’s park, no less.

2) His home/road splits. He was hit hard in Cincy, most glaringly to the tune of 7 home runs in 42.2 IP. But everywhere else he was quite good.

And FanGraphs noted last month in a post titled “Free Agent Bargain: Jeremy Affeldt” that Affeldt’s raw stuff took “a pretty big step forward.” (Link tip from Baggs.) His fastball and curve got faster, which perhaps made him feel more comfortable throwing strikes. He got a lot of swinging strikes, too.

It actually gets better. Not only did he post a career high K rate, he also threw a lot of ground balls, more than 50%. If he can repeat that for two more years, and some of the fly balls that went over the fence in Cincy die in the echoing canyons of Mays Field, the Giants just got themselves a relief ace.

The same caveat I wrote earlier today about Juan Cruz applies here —spending multimillions on a guy now expected to be The Set-Up Guy for the first time is a risk. But the Giants have tamped down the risk by giving Affeldt two years, not three. (Could he really do no better than two years, $8 M??? Wow.) And as mentioned previously, he’s a Type B, not Type A.

In short, this was about as good a cost/benefit move the Giants could make for a free agent reliever. Affeldt might end up no better — and a lot more expensive — than Alex Hinshaw, but the signs of upside and the two-year commitment make the outlay a risk worth taking.

Affeldt was the first free agent to sign this year, and fellow lefty reliever Damaso Marte didn’t even test the waters, which makes you wonder: Are free agent dollars going to be in short supply this winter? Are agents telling clients to pounce on the first decent offer? Did the Giants really blow away the competition… or was there any to begin with? You’d think he could wait another week or two and see if a three-year deal materialized.



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This is a great move... we need some solid middle relievers, and he didn't cost much. I remember when he was the next hot thing in KC, but flamed out. I think we have our 8th inning man.

LOVE THIS FIRST MOVE OF THE OFFSEASON.

Let me know if I'm missing something, but how does "an extreme hitter's park" affect K/BB rates?

Good question. It doesn't necessarily, but if a park tends to reward any kind of contact, you'd think pitchers with lesser stuff would start to nibble, scared to throw strikes. Yes, Affeldt gave up a lot of HRs in Cincy, but it didn't make him gunshy about going after hitters (evidenced by the low BB and high K rates), which in turn makes me think he had a lot of justified confidence in his stuff.

Paul-- not sure if that's what Lefty was saying, and they only would in a non-concrete fashion; by the pitcher nibbling more for fear of being blasted.

I think there may be something to the market. Obviously the Yankees will be unaffected, but the majority of other teams will. It just so happens the Yankees were not hard up for relief help. I think as long as the Giants aren't going head up against a NY team for a given FA, they have a decent chance given they have another $15M or so to play with in their budget for this year.

That's actually a good point about nibbling, I hadn't considered that.

Do you think this move is a signal that the Giants think they can contend sooner rather than later? Spending $4MM on a non-closing reliever makes me think that they may be active in seriously pursuing some of the marquee free agents.

The Giants this offseason set public expectations at being competitive in 2009 and contending in 2010. I forgot who said that but that has been stated already.

And if you read over Neukom's statements since he was announced, he clearly wants to win every year and thus has Sabean create scenarios where the budget is set higher in order to get better players, and Neukom will figure out the financing part and which scenario makes sense.

Thus I expect that Sabean has submitted scenarios where the Giants boost payroll up above $100M by obtaining a premiere player or two, and Neukom could be mulling it over, or even told him to see whether those scenarios are even possible.

In the end, though, I don't expect (or want) the Giants to get a marquee player. I think we have enough players in the pipeline that we need to see what happens with them first over the next year or two, before we go willy-nilly in spending.

Also, there's nobody I would want the Giants do to that with, except Teixeira and I expect Eastern teams to overbid for him, making him a great addition, but not worth it for what we would be paying him. I would rather save the money, wait for next off-season when Winn, Roberts and Molina would drop off the payroll, and see who we can get then.

My thoughts are at the very least they want to be fair to these young starters of theirs and not have them losing wins and hence losing psyche (Cain) because the bullpen blows wins for them. They prob also think that with good starting pitching, anything is possible, so for a short-term commitment like this why not?

They have their payroll, and I would assume it helps out their taxes quite a bit to actually expend a certain amount (not to mention it helps stave the backlash from uninformed fans/season ticket holders who would think they were mailing it in if they cut their budget by $20M), so why not try to compete even if on paper it doesn't appear like you can quite yet?

I like it but why 4 teams in 4 years?

If we're optimistic, we could say it's because he came into the league too young, was bounced between the rotation and bullpen and never found his groove, plus couldn't quite get his control, um, under control. The last year and a half he seems to have finally figured it out, like a lot of pitchers in their late 20s.

If we're pessimistic, we could say it's because he's not very good.

I would say that he was good enough for teams to want him, but not good enough for teams to want to keep him.

And really, his stats were not that good until he did well at Colorado, and even there he walked too many batters that the Rockies were not going to pay him the $3M the Reds gave him. He really and truly only blossomed last season, so the key question is whether he can keep this going or if 2008 is the fluke.

But he has shown his potential enough before, which made him desirable enough for teams to want him. Why the Reds chose to not keep him, only they can say. But the stats look good in 2008 and we only commit to two years for a minor amount of our payroll.

I like it a lot. I think it is very low risk - ie, $4 mil is cheap for an established RP. He is one of the very best RPs on the FA market, he is getting better, and he does NOT cost a draft pick. He seems perfect for the 8th inning role, with Romo and Hinshaw for the 7th. I think this is exciting as it is a major upgrade for (relatively) low dollars.

and, as Lefty points out, he only gave up 2 HR away from that band box in Cinci.. That bodes extremely well for the big parks in the NL West.

I think it's a great move. He could be our best reliever next year.

Good signing but will it be overshadowed by sabean making a bonehead move and signing either Furcal or Renteria for 10 mil/4 years? I wouldn't mind taking a chance on Manny or Tex but not another soft hitting infielder that doesn't bat either 3,4, or 5.

>>signing either Furcal or Renteria for 10 mil/4 years?

Furcal could get that. Renteria won't. He's more likely to get a one or two year contract.

Either way, a soft hitting shortstop doesnt solve any of the Giants offensive problems. It seems like Burris is just as viable an option for much cheaper which would allow the Giants to spend that money on a much needed middle of the order bat.

Sabean has a tendency to make moves just for the sake of making moves (Roberts, Zito, Benitez, Rowand, etc.) all of which have backfired. He shouldn't even be considering Furcal or Renteria given that this team already has more then a handful of guys with the same offensive skill sets. We need a middle of the order bat period. Nothing less will do and I would rather see them make no moves then committ multiple years and millions to another Randy Winn type bat.

Well said and seconded.

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