How's this for a juicy rumor? Two different beat writers say there's talk of the Giants making a serious offer to CC Sabathia. Both peg it between the Brewers' reported offer of 6 years, $100 M and the Yankees' 6/$140 M.
Before we get too far into this scenario, note which two writers got the "scoop" --
Tom Haudricourt of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel and
Dan Graziano of the Newark Star-Ledger. Brewers. Yankees. You think maybe someone in the CC camp is trying to stoke the fire under the pot?
I'm leery of giving this too much running room, but what the hell. Let's play along. Pretend, as Haudricourt speculates, that the Giants try to split the difference of the two bids and offer 6/$120 M, and that CC, longing for those foggy summer nights, takes a major hometown discount.
No matter how much they backload and defer, we're talking $40 M a year for two pitchers, Sabathia and Zito, through the first half of next decade. Add to that Rowand's $12 M, Tim Lincecum (assuming he goes year to year in arbitration) soon hitting $10 M annually, and let's say they succeed in luring Furcal -- another $10 M a year. This is all back-of-napkin stuff, but by 2011 the Giants could be spending north of $60 M on five players. Sure, they've got good young (cheap) talent coming down the pipe, but not all of them will pan out. How much wiggle room will they have to add payroll with that kind of outlay?
My other thought: the stadium debt will be retired soon, freeing up a big chunk of change. I emailed BP's stadium guru Neil DeMause, who said the original debt was $170 M, and the annual payment is about $18 M a year. Factor in interest, and they're probably not close to done. However:
Baggs takes a thoughtful angle on the CC rumors and points out the Giants have money from the Comcast deal socked away. They're also bidding to help develop a piece of prime property across the Cove (though from my readings, their proposal isn't the front runner).
All that said, unless Rowand or Zito magically disappears, or Bill Neukom is injecting some of his Microsoft mad money, I just don't see CC as a Giant. It comes down to this: The Yankees can afford to get burned by an insanely long term contract for a pitcher. The Giants already have been and cannot afford it again.
On the surface this seems like it could work out provided we trade some of our young pitching to get a middle of the order bat. Is the risk really worth the reward though? We already made one mistake with the Zito deal and the Giants can't afford to make another one. I get the feeling sabean is up to his old tricks of making moves just for the sake of making moves kinda like the last few years with the Roberts, Benitez, Zito, and Rowand signings. I think Giants fans should prepare themselves for Renteria at short next season and Pedro Feliz's long lost twin Edwin Encarnacion at third after sabean trades Sanchez and Alderson for him.
I am with Pato on this. This could be a good signing but only if complemented by a trade which sends one of our great inexpensive young pitchers (Cain, Sanchez, or elite prospects) to a team in exchange for a relatively cheap young controllable middle of the order bat (or one that is almost middle of the order now and clearly is on a trajectory to be middle of the order soon).
I would prefer the Giants sign a good starting pitcher through free agency but not the best of the best (Sabathia) in order to cut down on costs going forward and make the suggested trade nonetheless (young pitcher for young middle of the order sort of hitter). By doing this the Giants capitalize on the abundance of pitching in this free agent market in order to acquire a middle of the order hitter, which is their true need. But I wouldn't be heartbroken if the Giants sign C. C. unless it is for a super long term deal (5 years would be my max).
First of all: If the Giants trade Matt Cain, it should be for a package of players at least equal to what Oakland got for Danny Haren, not one-on-one straight up for an up and coming power bat. Cain is not some up and comer -- he's an established top-of-rotation starting pitcher with plenty of upside. He should fetch the Giants a treasure trove of talent, or else no deal.
+1
Though I would refer to the Volquez deal as closer to the model, a young player who has done well but not proven, but with additional prospects because Cain, as noted, is proven.
This smells like the Zito deal, though admittedly with more prospective talent. But you can imagine the front office justifications: fan interest up! Ticket sales up! Media buzz up! All of which is not directly related to winning games, lots of them, over the long haul (which sells a lot more tickets than media buzz). The Giants do not need more pitching. They need offense. If these rumors are true, the Giants are getting distracted from winning baseball, again.
Thanks for the info on the park costs; I thought it was $20M per year to 2018. Even at $18M, should end around 2018 still.
Seems right. $18M for 20 years to 2018 with $170M debt implies 8.5% interest rate or IRR. Also, remember, interest paid results in taxes saved on revenues too, though declining over time as more principal is covered in each payment.
The key to making this work is that Neukom has publicly stated that, basically, money is no object given the right plan presented to him. He should not have much more Microsoft millions to stoke the Giants fire, but he should have a rolodex of Hi-Tech buddies who he have met over the years and talked with him about his ownership interest in the Giants and expressed interest in some way. He could start cold-calling them when the team needs more money.
The key is to add new investors who can help pay for the new players, that is the model that got the D-backs their World Series championship, that is the model that brings them back to competitiveness after nearly going bankrupt with their original financing plan (they basically bought their title). I want someone to buy the Giants a title.
The Comcast money helps too.
With a rotation of Sabathia, Lincecum, Cain, Zito, and Sanchez (then Alderson, then Bumgarner), our rotation would be a juggernaut per my hypothesis that having a dominating rotation is the way to playoff success (my examples being Unit/Schilling for D-backs, Koufax/Drysdale for Dodgers).
Or for an olden day example applicable for the Giants, there was Christy Mathewson single-handedly winning the Giants the 1905 World Series. While those days of single pitcher taking over are over, if we can have two aces, that could duplicate it.
Adding a third ace in Sabathia would push that up exponentially, I believe. And if Sanchez can pitch like an ace again, the more the merrier for us in the playoffs.
People cry about offense, but it goes both ways. If we have a rotation which can keep scoring under 4.0 runs per game (ERA without #5 in 2008 was 4.00 basically; with Sabathia's 2007, around 3.82 ERA), our offense in 2008, even with all the experimentation, scored 4.0 runs per game. That's over .500 right there.
Our offense should be even better in 2009 because Burriss or SS FA would beat Bocock/Vizquel, our 1B couldn't get worse, OF should be same or better if Rowand hits like he can, and Sandoval could not be worse than Castillo at 3B, and should be better. Plus, imagine how well Lewis could play with a healthy bunion!
And as I noted on my blog, Lincecum and Cain probably lost at least 10 wins that they had left to the bullpen, saving 8 of those 10 lost wins would bring us close to .500 right there, the team was very close to .500 in 2008, just by tweaking the bullpen.
In all, given the lack of plus hitters likely to join us, getting Sabathia would still improve the team's RA greatly and people forget that the two ways to win is to either improve RS or to reduce RA. Getting CC would reduce RA greatly.
Also, Sabathia is no Zito, at least not in the early years of the deal.
+100 on that!
There are a lot of should's and could's in the offensive forecasting there, all valid possibilities. I'd just prefer a plan, a sense that pieces are in place and moving forward to fill holes. Sabean is like a little kid running around a toy store looking for all the goodies he can afford -- it's all about opportunity. Instead, he should make plans for the giant Lego spaceship Victory, then carefully purchase each Lego kit that contains the necessary parts. That's about planning.
"I want someone to buy the Giants a title" -- that's different! Your comments are usually so well-organized and thoughtful! Going into the manic phase, are we?
I think we Giants fans have been really patient. I don't feel it is being manic to say that I want someone to buy the Giants a title. The Angel's got their billionaire owner. The D-backs had investors fueling their spending. Yankees got Steinbrenner and the YES network. We have so many tech centi-millionaires and billionaires around the Bay Area, it should not be so hard to find someone to help fund some key spending now.
I'm not asking for a long term spend like Steinbrenner, but I think the team has a good core in Lincecum and Cain, plus Bumgarner and Alderson, that can lead to years of pitching dominance. If we can get some key spending here and there to get players we need to be competitive over the next few years, that would be great.
I mean, I didn't put "!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!" after that statement, that would have been manic. :^)
Yeah, I guess that's manic-depressive, not obsessive-compulsive! I wouldn't mind some friendly deep pockets either.
Maybe the D-backs experience is an eye-opener: they bought the title back in 2001 and had a few good years around it. Now they are pursuing the grow-from-within strategy (which I'm partial to) and keep coming up short. I guess you need Pedroia *and* Matsuzaka, home-grown and big-time free agent.
they SHOULD NOT DO THIS DEAL. I like the less expensive route of a Lowe or ??? and using other $$$ for offense and Middle relief.
Lowe wants $16M per year. No thank you!
I had heard that Sabathia is leaning towards staying in CA (either for the Giants or the Dodgers, who I thought were the team going after him) for as much as 40 mil. less than what the Yankees are offering. Some of the ESPN guys were saying that the players union is putting pressure on CC to accept NY's offer as they believe it will be good for other free agents in baseball.
This may have already been covered, but what are the odds of the Giants grabbing Mark Texiera (or does he even want to play for us?), and who are his suitors? I'd think our team with is current pitching rotation and the potential coming out of the minors would look pretty good with the Texiera at 1st and KFP (Kung-Fu Panda) at 3rd.
just saw on sfgiants.com that sabean is now pursuing orlando hudson... do baseball GM's have to take drug tests cuz I think Sabean has been taking a few hits off the old crack pipe. Let me rush to the phone to order my season tickets before they sell out!! Any chance we can get Renteria to play short and trade Cain for Encarnacion? Nothing good is going to happen with this team until sabean is gone.