Instead of a premature comment on the rumored Renteria signing, let me present a quick quiz. Here are two different stat lines. Which shortstop would you prefer?
Player A: .270 BA / .317 OBP / .382 SLG / .256 EqA / 98 Rate2 (100 is average)
Player B: .332 BA / .390 OBP / .470 SLG / .305 EqA / 106 Rate2
You want Player B, right? Those are terrific offensive numbers for a shortstop, especially one who plays slightly above-average defense. Hooray! Player B is Edgar Renteria, circa 2007, arguably his finest offensive season ever with above-average D (Rate2 is BP’s defensive stat).
Alas, you knew this was coming: Player A is also Edgar Renteria, 2008 model. Ah, but those gloomy 2008 numbers must be from playing half his games in Detroit’s Comerica Park, right? Wrong. His home/road splits this year were totally counter-intuitive. Check ‘em out here.
So which one are the Giants signing to a two-year $18–million contract, the one I’m not going to comment upon until further confirmation?
If it’s Renteria-B, it’s an acceptable way to give Manny Burriss more time to marinate and a huge offensive upgrade, if you believe this projection that pegs Burriss as a slightly more muscular Omar Vizquel without the defense. Renteria-B’s offensive numbers, or close to them, would also make his average defense acceptable.
If it’s Renteria-A, he’s still an offensive upgrade to the projected Burriss, but certainly not $9 M–a-year worth. And the sub-par defense would make the choice of Renteria over Burriss even more disappointing.
Given his age and his career line of .290 / .347 / .405, we’re more likely to see Mr. A than Mr. B. And he wouldn’t even have to be in decline: in his prime age-28 year, he hit .287 / .327 / .401. He’s got a history of wild inconsistency.
It all boils down to this: The Giants are gambling that a former All-Star who turns 34 next August can revive his bat and glove enough to buy time to make longer-term decisions. They probably overpaid to get a shorter contract, which is smart, but if you believed that Manny Burriss could at least hold the fort next year, this has to hurt. Sorry, I’m not commenting until I see proof.
