Instead of a premature comment on the rumored Renteria signing, let me present a quick quiz. Here are two different stat lines. Which shortstop would you prefer?
Player A: .270 BA / .317 OBP / .382 SLG / .256 EqA / 98 Rate2 (100 is average)
Player B: .332 BA / .390 OBP / .470 SLG / .305 EqA / 106 Rate2
You want Player B, right? Those are terrific offensive numbers for a shortstop, especially one who plays slightly above-average defense. Hooray! Player B is Edgar Renteria, circa 2007, arguably his finest offensive season ever with above-average D (Rate2 is BP’s defensive stat).
Alas, you knew this was coming: Player A is also Edgar Renteria, 2008 model. Ah, but those gloomy 2008 numbers must be from playing half his games in Detroit’s Comerica Park, right? Wrong. His home/road splits this year were totally counter-intuitive. Check ‘em out here.
So which one are the Giants signing to a two-year $18–million contract, the one I’m not going to comment upon until further confirmation?
If it’s Renteria-B, it’s an acceptable way to give Manny Burriss more time to marinate and a huge offensive upgrade, if you believe this projection that pegs Burriss as a slightly more muscular Omar Vizquel without the defense. Renteria-B’s offensive numbers, or close to them, would also make his average defense acceptable.
If it’s Renteria-A, he’s still an offensive upgrade to the projected Burriss, but certainly not $9 M–a-year worth. And the sub-par defense would make the choice of Renteria over Burriss even more disappointing.
Given his age and his career line of .290 / .347 / .405, we’re more likely to see Mr. A than Mr. B. And he wouldn’t even have to be in decline: in his prime age-28 year, he hit .287 / .327 / .401. He’s got a history of wild inconsistency.
It all boils down to this: The Giants are gambling that a former All-Star who turns 34 next August can revive his bat and glove enough to buy time to make longer-term decisions. They probably overpaid to get a shorter contract, which is smart, but if you believed that Manny Burriss could at least hold the fort next year, this has to hurt. Sorry, I’m not commenting until I see proof.
Not surprising that Renteria is the best Sabean could do this offseason. Kinda like last year only at least he isn't going to give him 5 years like he did Rowand. I would love to hear what Neukom has to say about a signing that handcuffs the Giants financially since that is 9 million a year less they will be spending on a middle of the lineup bat.
This signing does nothing to improve this team and it takes the giants out of the market for any other significant signings this offseason. Anyone know where Renteria is projected to bat in this lineup? Any higher then 7th and they might as well start a marketing campaign for a repeat of last years glory with slightly different "talent".
I can't stop shaking my head at how little imagination Sabean has and if he actually expects us to believe that they are putting out a competative team for 2009. We still have zero players on this team that can bat either 3, 4, or 5 and here we go getting another 8th place hitter on a good team, 2nd place hitter on a bad one (in other words he will be batting 2nd on the giants). We have literally a stock pile of 2nd or 8th place hitters to choose from and now we get another one for 9 million and it costs us our 2nd round draft pick!! If there was a light at the end of the tunel of garbage that is the Giants current 5 year slump, this signing just made that light another 2 years further away.
No, we're not going to compete in 2009, and we never more. Yeah, maybe if we signed tex we could make the playoffs, but that doesn't mean that much given that we're in the worst division in baseball. I'd rather build a good team than make the playoffs with a shitty one. This doesn't improve the team a lot; what it does do is give the team more options in the middle infield, so they can take their time developing their young talent (IE Burriss).
Honestly, what imaginative deal are you thinking Sabean could have made this year that would have made the giants a competitive team this year? What could have done that would have put us on the same plane as the Rays, the Red Sox, the Cubs, the Phillies? Because if you can think of something I definitely want to hear it.
I don't hate this deal. It's short term and it gives the giants acceptable defense and a bat that's fine in the Giants line up. A long term deal, I'd be angry about, but this is obviously a stopgap solution and it shows that Sabes realizes this is a problem that needs a long term solution.
Just wanted to add that I do wish the Giants had waited to see if he would accept arbitration, to see if maybe we could get Renteria AND a second round draft pick.
Just wanted to note that the Giants want to be competitive (i.e. .500) in 2009 and in the last two months of 2008, they were basically at .500, with basically the same group of players we had at that time.
The main problem was consistency of the offense, though the consistency of starting pitchers was also a contributor.
It won't take much to get us to be competitive in 2009, I don't think.
>Not surprising that Renteria is the best Sabean could do this offseason
First of all, it's only Nov. 24. Why would you assume this is the best he will do?
Second, it's not a confirmed deal.
Third, check this out. If the deal eventually goes down - and the latest updates say the rumor isn't true - this analysis will make me feel a little better.
I agree - it is way too early to conclude that this is the best Sabean will do this off-season. The fact that it is a short-term deal (if it happens) is definitely a good sign. I'm not a Sabean fan by any stretch - but I'm willing to wait and see what happens before deciding that this team will stay the same or will get worse. I'm also encouraged by the Affeldt signing.
To play devil's advocate, Sabean had implied that getting Pierzynski wasn't all we going to do that off-season, but he misjudged the market, if I recall what he said correctly, and the Giants ended up not doing much else.
So while it's too early, I totally agree with you on that, they are exhibiting their worry that Sabean will do what he "did" (that is, what they imagine he did) previously.
I also agree that it's better to wait and see what the results of the off-season is before we judge it's success or lack thereof, and I'm also encouraged by the Affeldt signing (and I would be further encouraged if this rumor turned out to be true).
According to MLB Trade Rumors, this is an untrue rumor, both his agent and Furcal's agent make that case. Schulman spoke with Bobby Evans and Evans says it's untrue.
hmm, they said at the beginning of the offseason that they had around 12-20 million to spend this offseason. Affeldt was 4 and now Renteria is 9 which puts them at the low end of that scale. lets assume they have another 7 to spend... name anyone that they can get for that much that will qualify as a better acquisition for sabes this year. Why did we trade Durham last year, we could have kept him at second and put manny at ss and saved 3 million!
Actually, he's a free agent, so if the Giants really wanted him, they could sign him today.
Screw Durham and screw Sabean if he brings that hack Renteria in as a backup to Furcal. I would not even spend the dollars on Furcal. Getting guys on base was not our offensive problem, driving them home was. We need a cleanup hitter, not a hurt/gettign old shortstop with more and more limited range that both Furcal and Renteria will show. Sign Sabathia, trade Sanchez and save some dough for 2009...
Peter, that is crazy talk! You must be confused and think that this post is for the A's cuz obviously you have to know that Sabes isn't anywhere smart enough to put together a deal that complicated (signing a top free agent and trading some of the abundance of starting pitching we have to fill an obvious void). I would much rather see this team struggle to be mediocre by playing musical chairs with overpriced veteran garbage to "fill in" the roster.
It just doesn't ever get better with Sabes running the front office. If you take a look at the Giants payroll last year it tells you exactly what you need to know about Sabean's abilities as a GM. Roberts 7 million, Aurelia 6 million, Durham 6 million, Vizquel 6 million, Rowand 10 million, Winn 10 million, Zito 17 million, and the only guy worth what they are paying him, Bengie at around 7 million. That is a lot of money tied up in "role players". Now we are looking at throwing 9 more million at a poor excuse for a shortstop with no range and a bad bat. They say insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different result but I am sure it will work out differently this time Sabean, thanks for all your efforts!
I think the seasons from 1997 to 2002 begs to differ.
I have no idea where you got those salaries, but I'm not sure if even one of them is correct.
I think he would say you're welcome, as he's built a stellar pitching rotation and the bullpen is shaping up nicely as well. Rebuilds don't happen in a year or two, it takes time to put it all together. Unfortunately, it also takes patience, something many Giants fans don't seem to exhibit.
Perhaps the market for the "abundant" pitching (if we traded anyone, there is no obvious choice to replace that pitcher, even if we got Sabathia; what Misch, Palmer, Pucetas?) is such that we would get underwhelmed, just look at what the Twins got for Santana, that was a sorry return for the best pitcher in baseball.
Would you prefer that Sabean be "smart" enough to trade greater value and get lesser value, just to show he can do something "smart"?
Also, you state how smart the A's are, but I guess you haven't noticed what the A's have done over the past few years: yes, they have copied Sabean's tactic of signing aging vets, Loaiza (stole him, thank goodness, from Giants according to rumors), Big Hurt, Embree, Piazza, Sweeney, Foulke, and though Chavez's not old, Beane's got to be sorry for signing Chavez to such an expensive, long term contract that's been killing the team, much like any of the contracts Sabean-haters like to harp on. He must also be enjoying the return he got for Tim Hudson as well, plus the Bradley fiasco, think they couldn't use Ethier now? Beane is not perfect, as some make him out to be, he's made plenty of mistakes, he just gets away with them with less rancor.
Maybe it's been too long since we've had a hitting prospect, but I really get sick and tired of people saying that we can't expect such and such from Burriss next year. How do you know what to expect? The kid was 23 last season and had never faced pitching at a high minors level. He'll get better.
I know it's a weird to have a hitter on the team that can actually improve his performance rather than maintaining it or having it decline with age, but that's what happens when you have hitters in their early 20s and not their early 30s.
Answer: Joe Strain. Rich Murray. David Green. Steve Decker. Calvin Murray. Damon Minor. Steve Lancelotti. Todd Linden. JR Phillips. Rikkert Fineyte. Mark Leonard.
Question: 20-something Giants prospects who never hit enough to become a long-term starter.
Being a 20-something year old doesn't mean he'll hit better than a 30 year old vet. That is a tough lesson learned from following the Giants from the early 70's to the late 80's, there were so many 20-somethings who never did squat for us.
Still, here's a reason why Burriss should do better going forward. As noted, only 23 years old, never faced pitching at the high minors level, and yet he only struck out at 10% rate (or 90% contact rate) plus had almost as many walks as strikeouts, another mark of a very good hitter. Only hitters who are among the best in baseball can combine not striking out much with also walking almost as many times as you strike out. So he should improve going forward.
His weaknesses is that he doesn't hit for any power at all. Carney Lansford says that Burriss has strong arms that should be hitting for more power and will work with him on that.
Loved Vizquel's ballet moves in the field, but in 2008 he had an OPS of .550. His OPS was .406 pre all-star break. Even player A would be a huge upgrade over the 2008 SS production.
1. Barry Zito 14,500,000
2. Aaron Rowand 9,600,000
3. Randy Winn 8,875,000
4. Dave Roberts 6,500,000
5. Bengie Molina 6,250,000
those are the exact numbers without aurelia, vizquel, or durham as they are no longer with the team but I assure you, they were well paid. The point isn't the exact dollar amount they are spending on "role players", the point is that ever since 2002 as you referenced this team has sucked something awful. That is five years back to back to back to back to back that this team hasn't done anything to improve and we are looking at year 6 unless something drastic changes.
I believe this team can win next season if Sabean were creative enough to get a deal done like Beene did in Oakland for Holliday. Pucetas, Alderson, Cain, and Sanchez should all be shopped this offseason to teams like Milwaukee and Texas who are in need of starting pitching. Prince, JJ Hardy, Crush
Davis, and Justin Smoak are all young talented players who could step right in and bat 3rd or 4th for the Giants and give them a ligitimate chance of competing this season or next.
Trying to win in 2009 would just harm winning in 2010-12, in my thinking, as you will have to either take on bad contracts or trade away good players for players who can help now.
See, you are trying to trade Cain and Alderson away, they are part of our future.
FYI, Smoak cannot be traded for a year after signing from the draft.
Say, how about a Player C which is Renteria's 2006 season?
So let Burris or anyone else play SS next season kinda like they did this year. The biggest problem I have is when Sabean signs guys like Renteria or even Furcal to expensive lengthy contracts and then the team ends up being mediocre or worse.
Sabean doesn't know how to rebuild a team and last season would have been the perfect opportunity. Instead he signs Rowand for 60 million. We would have lost just as many games and this season we would have another 60 million to throw at Tex or CC.
Instead he will continue to "fill holes" while avoiding the "rebuilding" word. If we sign either Furcal or Renteria or anyone other then Manny, CC, or Tex then we are not only wasting the money but doing nothing to improve for next season. Just like Beane said when he traded Haren last offseason, if you can't win now then it is better to be bad rebuilding then mediocre with no direction.